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Dividends, deficits and debt … DEC results out today
Phil 2
Posted: 24 February 2023 07:37:08(UTC)
#13

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,107

Maybe this will wake up the share price! Assuming that the unseasonably warm weather both sides of the Atlantic has contributed to the SP weakness that is.

BBC.
Parts of usually balmy southern California are under their first blizzard warning since 1989.
Forecasters are predicting record snowfall of up to 8ft (2.4m) in mountains to the east of Los Angeles by Saturday.

A massive storm has already brought major blizzards and temperatures below freezing to much of the northern US.

The cold snap comes as parts of the US southeast basked in a record-breaking heat wave.
The icy weather front stretches along the entire US West Coast, as well as the Canadian province of British Columbia.

The winter storm warning is in effect for the coastal Ventura County mountains and Los Angeles County mountains from early Friday until Saturday, the National Weather Service (NWS) said.
Johan De Silva
Posted: 24 February 2023 08:26:37(UTC)
#12

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,412

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Thrugelmir;258590 wrote:
European investors appear to to be more ESG sensitive than their US counterparts. Shunning dirty oil and gas companies. Amongst the majors Shell, BP and Total for example are rated around 50% lower than their US counterparts Exxon Mobil and Chevron. As a result no hope for the European minors. Great opportunity currently to exploit the mispricing. Not going to last for much longer I'd say. 10% yields are going to be very attractive once inflation slips lower.

Agree and you get direct access to all the European majors via ENGY (no stamp).

The US ones (ETF SPOG) have fallen sharply relative to ENGY in recent months so not so much a big gap.

DEC is US.

I3E gets its revenue from Canada though they have UK exploration that allows us to buy without an NR 301 form.

You get outstanding value based in Canada (NR 301 form) and US (W-8BEN form) through volatility, yet they are often net cash small companies that can grow production like PTAL, SOUC, AXL (I have about a grand or so in each just for fun and they will never exceed 1-2% AUM). These have the potential to be multi-baggers.

All these stocks can be bought in a SIPP without the forms and are falling sharply every month until they start to grow again into the next cycle.

Outstanding opportunity for the savvy trader or long-term investor who does not mind the volatility.

May, July and August have often been good times to go overweight, but no guarantees.
2 users thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
Alfa 2 on 24/02/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 24/02/2023(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 27 February 2023 07:24:56(UTC)
#10

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,176

Johan De Silva;258572 wrote:
MarkSp its all priced in, but these concerns are not there in buying something similar in I3E that stands out as net cash, clean sheet, good average and a bit of oil in the mix. SOUC if you have the Canadien form filled (or have a SIPP) in is a smaller option and very similar. There is a plethora of options in Canada and US in the smaller space that seem exceptionally "value".

15% yield for DEC right now under £1, its simply a case of how low can you get in before next winter storage filling.


Johan,

"It's all priced in" ? Really ?

I don't think it can be priced in as the range of outcomes is so wide. As a leap into the unknown with a high yield, it has its attractions but 15% must be saying something

The other warning sign for me is the behaviour of "Randy" the shareholders friend. He has been promising a US listing for as long as I have been watching these shares. There is a lot of personality there and in my experience noisy CEOs have never been good for my wallet.

I feel like I should take a sizeable position, I am not sure in which direction that should be :) This price is either a fantastic opportunity to build a stake or a warning that the wheels are coming off what may be a scheme where short term revenue is being bought but the long term liabilities aren't being accounted for.

The accounts are quite clear under the contingent liabilities section. they can't estimate the liability so they haven't.


Phil 2
Posted: 04 March 2023 08:26:57(UTC)
#14

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,107

From a couple of days ago on Proactive. The hedging comparison is quite interesting. Dividend (3.6p ish) payable on 28th March. It is tempting to top up at these SP levels but I already have a chunkster holding here. Think I’ll just enjoy the income, long may it last.

Diversified Energy Company PLC (LSE:DEC, OTCQX:DECPF) (DEC) said it has completed the US$250mln acquisition of producing wells and facilities in its Central Region, in the United States, from Tanos Energy.

After making customary purchase price adjustments the net purchase price was US$244mln, the company noted in a statement.

“We are excited to complete another Central Region acquisition of accretive, high-quality assets, further increasing our operational scale in the region,” said chief executive Rusty Hutson in the statement.

DEC said the acquisition has added 17,000 barrels of oil equivalent production per day to the company's portfolio, with some 25mln barrels oil equivalent of proved developed producing (PDP) reserves across the acquired asset base.

On top of that, the company sees substantial upside potential within the acquired acreage with some 50 undeveloped well locations identified across the asset base, which according to DEC could yield some US$280mln of value to the portfolio.

Also acquired in the deal is a basket of hedge arrangements, which sees 60% of the acquired production with an average gas price-floor of US$3.80 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2023 compared to the wider DEC portfolio which is 80% hedged at US$3.65 per Mcf.

The acquisition was part-funded by proceeds of a recent US$163mln equity raise, along with cash on hand and existing borrowing facilities.

Hutson noted: “Leveraging the recent reduction in natural gas prices, the net purchase price equates to a low multiple of the assets' net annual cash flows and approximates a PV17 value.

“Having acquired the assets with a foundation of hedge protection, we will begin our usual asset-optimisation work while opportunistically adding to the hedge portfolio with an eye towards protecting and expanding already strong margins that underpin our tangible returns for shareholders through commodity price cycles and create long-term value.

“I would like to thank our lenders for their continued support, demonstrated by a 50% increase in the borrowing base of our sustainability linked loan, and our investors for their support during the concurrent equity raise, which collectively enhance our balance sheet and position us for continued success."
3 users thanked Phil 2 for this post.
Thrugelmir on 04/03/2023(UTC), what me worry? on 04/03/2023(UTC), MarkSp on 06/03/2023(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 21 March 2023 07:24:35(UTC)
#15

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,107

FY22 results out. Dividend maintained, revenues (and hedging!) seem stronger, will be interesting to see any recovery in the SP. Seems oversold but then everything I hold does!!

Operating and Financial Highlights

• Record average net daily production: 135 MBoepd (811 MMcfepd)

◦ December exit rate of 141 Mboepd(a) (846 MMcfepd) excluding weather-related downtime

• Year end 2022 reserves of 830 MMboe and $6.1 billion; 61% value increase from year end 2021(b)
Is
• Adjusted EBITDA of $503 million(c) generating Free Cash Flow of $219 million(d)

• Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 50%(e)

• Net loss of $620 million, inclusive of $668 million tax-effected, non-cash unsettled derivative fair value adjustments

• Total Revenue, Inclusive of Hedges up 49% to $1 billion(f), net of $896 million commodity cash hedge payments

◦ Total Revenue up 90% to $1.9 billion

• Dividends paid per share up 6% to $0.17; Total dividends paid up 10% to $143 million

• Recommending a final quarterly dividend of $0.04375 per share

• ~85% of 2023 production hedged at an average natural gas price of $3.83/Mcf

◦ Represents ~34% price premium and ~70% increase in coverage from year-end 2021
John Bran
Posted: 26 April 2023 19:47:53(UTC)
#16

Joined: 01/09/2017(UTC)
Posts: 2,125

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Held this for a while. Sold sometime back. Total returns better elsewhere. Present price looks excellent.
Excellent dividend.
Would not consider buying again unless I was using a competent brocker who was willing to accept a w8ben and remove all withholding tax within a SIPP. 13% dividend with dividend growth is well above the market average total returns... any market average!
Ignoring risk. Which it is not lacking.
1 user thanked John Bran for this post.
Phil 2 on 26/04/2023(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 09 May 2023 06:12:32(UTC)
#17

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,107

Well the dividends continue, even if the SP is as low as a snake’s belly. This one goes ex-div on 31st Aug following the Q4 one that goes ex in a few weeks’ time (25th I think).

9 May 2023

Diversified Energy Company PLC

("Diversified" or the "Company")

First Quarter Dividend Announcement

Diversified Energy Company PLC (LSE:DEC) is pleased to announce that the Board has declared an interim dividend of 4.375 cents per share in respect of 1Q23 for the three month period ended 31 March 2023, an increase of 3% over the 1Q22 dividend of 4.250 cents per share.
Phil 2
Posted: 09 May 2023 06:23:16(UTC)
#18

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,107

Quarterly trading update is interesting. I won’t claim to understand the production units (!) but the hedging seems to be working?

Diversified Energy Company PLC (LSE:DEC) is pleased to announce it is trading in line with expectations and provided the following operations and trading update for the quarter ended 31 March 2023.

Delivering Reliable Results

• Recorded average 1Q23 production of 139 Mboepd (833 MMcfepd)
◦ Exit rate of 145 Mboepd (872 MMcfepd)
◦ Includes 15% liquids; Up 30% since entering Central Region

• Net income of ~$400 million inclusive of a ~$365 million gain on tax-effected, non-cash unsettled derivative fair value adjustments
• Achieved 1Q23 Adjusted EBITDA of ~$150 million(a)
• Realised 54% Cash Margin(b) benefiting from lower expenses
• Annualized Free Cash Flow Yield(c) of ~37% (1Q23 of ~9%)
• Total Unit Cash Expense(e) of $10.46/Boe ($1.74/Mcfe); ~6% improvement compared to 4Q22
• 2.3x Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio(f) and ~$110 million of liquidity(g)

Executing Strategic Objectives

• Declared 1Q23 interim dividend of 4.375 cents per share, consistent with 4Q22; up 3% vs. 1Q22
• Completed Tanos II asset acquisition
• Maintained favourable natural gas hedge position; 2023 average floor pricing 35% above strip for remainder of 2023(d)
• Completed ~$6 million in non-core undeveloped acreage sales across the Company's operating footprint
1 user thanked Phil 2 for this post.
MarkSp on 11/05/2023(UTC)
Ian Eccles
Posted: 13 May 2023 11:37:56(UTC)
#19

Joined: 04/07/2021(UTC)
Posts: 1,076

I have looked at this time and time again, what stopped me putting my hand in my pocket is Pollution.
If there is an environmental incident, being in America, they will get bogged down with litigation and more than likely lose your money.
Phil 2
Posted: 13 May 2023 18:11:49(UTC)
#20

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,107

Not my area but surely they are insured against such events?
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