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Is anyone investing in fixed rate cash deposits again?
Mr Spock
Posted: 24 August 2022 09:06:54(UTC)
#43

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[quote=Easyrider;235780]The only way the ordinary Joe can help to moderate inflation is to cut back on consumption. Simply stop buying things. Don't put fuel in your car, walk or cycle. Don't eat out, eat at home and eat less. Turn down your heating. Only buy a new pair of shoes when the old ones fall off your feet.
And boycott shops cafes and restaurants which insist on electronic payment as opposed to accepting cash in the form of paper and coin.
One can monitor expenditure more easily using cash.
Also don't go on holiday. Have a staystation in the garden.
Also grow more of your food.

Sorry, Easyrider, but that is a recipe for economic disaster and prolonged recession.
1 user thanked Mr Spock for this post.
Fife Clive on 24/08/2022(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 24 August 2022 09:10:08(UTC)
#45

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Easyrider;235780 wrote:
The only way the ordinary Joe can help to moderate inflation is to cut back on consumption. Simply stop buying things. Don't put fuel in your car, walk or cycle. Don't eat out, eat at home and eat less. Turn down your heating. Only buy a new pair of shoes when the old ones fall off your feet.
And boycott shops cafes and restaurants which insist on electronic payment as opposed to accepting cash in the form of paper and coin.
One can monitor expenditure more easily using cash.

.


Hmmm.... doing it electronically means I can see from my statement where I spent the money. With cash, I'd have to write it down. Can't see me doing the accountant thing and going around with a little notebook.

But none of those things is going to change the main driver of inflation which seems to be energy prices, gas in particular.

I'm seeing continued BoE rate increases now, and that might help the pound (though the last one didn't seem to).

The house price crash is moving closer....
2 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Tim D on 24/08/2022(UTC), Easyrider on 24/08/2022(UTC)
Fife Clive
Posted: 24 August 2022 09:12:35(UTC)
#48

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Easyrider;235780 wrote:
The only way the ordinary Joe can help to moderate inflation is to cut back on consumption. Simply stop buying things. Don't put fuel in your car, walk or cycle. Don't eat out, eat at home and eat less. Turn down your heating. Only buy a new pair of shoes when the old ones fall off your feet.
And boycott shops cafes and restaurants which insist on electronic payment as opposed to accepting cash in the form of paper and coin.
One can monitor expenditure more easily using cash.
Also don't go on holiday. Have a staystation in the garden.
Also grow more of your food.
"Is anyone investing in fixed rate cash deposits again?"
My wife and I hold close to the maximum in premium bonds which can be likened to cash deposits with the chance, however miniscule, of winning a substantial amount.
Also I'm invested in NS&I index bonds which I've rolled over several times.
I like having a finger in most pies.


So the answer to rising (relative) prices is reduced consumption, I think a GCSE economics student could tell you that. Of course your approach adopted by the ‘ordinary Joe’ en masse would be the makings of a major economic depression
1 user thanked Fife Clive for this post.
Easyrider on 24/08/2022(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 24 August 2022 10:09:05(UTC)
#25

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
Posts: 6,253

Apostate;235776 wrote:
[

good 5yr TR - are there any other similar ITs?

The high yield bond/credit funds I have are
BIPS, SMIF, RECI, and Royal London Global Bond Opps
All of these have handsomely beaten cash on deposit over the past 5 years on a lump sum basis, and even better if you had bought the dips, and I am reasonably confident that they will continue to do so. The FSCS point is not really relevant.
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 24 August 2022 11:01:26(UTC)
#50

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
Posts: 6,253

Fife Clive;235812 wrote:

So the answer to rising (relative) prices is reduced consumption, I think a GCSE economics student could tell you that. Of course your approach adopted by the ‘ordinary Joe’ en masse would be the makings of a major economic depression
Might an alternatively rational approach be to increase consumption in the expectation that prices will go up? We have been seeing this with high end cars and watches. I have been stocking up on a lot of alcohol.
3 users thanked Bulldog Drummond for this post.
Sara G on 24/08/2022(UTC), Tim D on 24/08/2022(UTC), Sheerman on 24/08/2022(UTC)
Easyrider
Posted: 24 August 2022 11:16:43(UTC)
#49

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Fife Clive;235812 wrote:
Easyrider;235780 wrote:
The only way the ordinary Joe can help to moderate inflation is to cut back on consumption. Simply stop buying things. Don't put fuel in your car, walk or cycle. Don't eat out, eat at home and eat less. Turn down your heating. Only buy a new pair of shoes when the old ones fall off your feet.
And boycott shops cafes and restaurants which insist on electronic payment as opposed to accepting cash in the form of paper and coin.
One can monitor expenditure more easily using cash.
Also don't go on holiday. Have a staystation in the garden.
Also grow more of your food.
"Is anyone investing in fixed rate cash deposits again?"
My wife and I hold close to the maximum in premium bonds which can be likened to cash deposits with the chance, however miniscule, of winning a substantial amount.
Also I'm invested in NS&I index bonds which I've rolled over several times.
I like having a finger in most pies.


So the answer to rising (relative) prices is reduced consumption, I think a GCSE economics student could tell you that. Of course your approach adopted by the ‘ordinary Joe’ en masse would be the makings of a major economic depression


......................................................................................................................................................................
An economic downturn which helps to tame inflation is a better option than prolonger runaway inflation. Also reduced domestic consumption will free goods and services for export which will help support employment and reduce our trade deficit.
Furthermore, reduced consumption will result in a reduction in imports, again helping to reduce our trade deficit and it would also have a dampening effect on imported inflation.
One of the major weakness of the British economy has been excessive domestic consumption especially of imported goods at the expense of investment in domestic productive capacity.
GDP growth equals growth of Consumption plus growth of Investment plus growth of Net exports.
The UK economy needs to focus more on increasing investment and growing exports rather than high levels of consumption which often involves imports of foreign goods.
We are not paying our way in the world.
The trade deficit could reach £150bn this year.
This could put pressure on the exchange rate of the pound resulting in higher imported inflation.
There is no magic bullet.
IMO an economic downturn, or recession, is likely.


2 users thanked Easyrider for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 24/08/2022(UTC), Sheerman on 24/08/2022(UTC)
Easyrider
Posted: 24 August 2022 11:20:33(UTC)
#46

Joined: 09/11/2020(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;235811 wrote:
Easyrider;235780 wrote:
The only way the ordinary Joe can help to moderate inflation is to cut back on consumption. Simply stop buying things. Don't put fuel in your car, walk or cycle. Don't eat out, eat at home and eat less. Turn down your heating. Only buy a new pair of shoes when the old ones fall off your feet.
And boycott shops cafes and restaurants which insist on electronic payment as opposed to accepting cash in the form of paper and coin.
One can monitor expenditure more easily using cash.

.


Hmmm.... doing it electronically means I can see from my statement where I spent the money. With cash, I'd have to write it down. Can't see me doing the accountant thing and going around with a little notebook.

But none of those things is going to change the main driver of inflation which seems to be energy prices, gas in particular.

I'm seeing continued BoE rate increases now, and that might help the pound (though the last one didn't seem to).

The house price crash is moving closer....


..................................................................................................................................................................

The falling external price of Sterling vis-a -vis the dollar has also been a factor.
Fife Clive
Posted: 24 August 2022 11:27:14(UTC)
#51

Joined: 01/12/2021(UTC)
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Bulldog Drummond;235848 wrote:
Fife Clive;235812 wrote:

So the answer to rising (relative) prices is reduced consumption, I think a GCSE economics student could tell you that. Of course your approach adopted by the ‘ordinary Joe’ en masse would be the makings of a major economic depression
Might an alternatively rational approach be to increase consumption in the expectation that prices will go up? We have been seeing this with high end cars and watches. I have been stocking up on a lot of alcohol.


Certainly expectations of persistent inflation in the future can be expected to bring consumption forward (for those lucky enough to be able to do it) - much as expectations of future deflation would subdue present demand. I believe this is the rationale for a low-but-positive target for inflation as adopted by central banks worldwide.

It has not gone unnoticed in my household that whisky prices have remained flat, despite energy being a huge part of a distiller’s cost base. I too have been taking the opportunity to stock up on some reliable staples - Bunnahabhain 12yo at <£40 and Laphroaig 10yo at <£30 may well look like the bargain of a lifetime in a few short years.
2 users thanked Fife Clive for this post.
Easyrider on 24/08/2022(UTC), Tim D on 24/08/2022(UTC)
Easyrider
Posted: 24 August 2022 11:29:54(UTC)
#42

Joined: 09/11/2020(UTC)
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Sara G;235804 wrote:
Easyrider;235780 wrote:
The only way the ordinary Joe can help to moderate inflation is to cut back on consumption. Simply stop buying things. Don't put fuel in your car, walk or cycle. Don't eat out, eat at home and eat less. Turn down your heating. Only buy a new pair of shoes when the old ones fall off your feet.
And boycott shops cafes and restaurants which insist on electronic payment as opposed to accepting cash in the form of paper and coin.
One can monitor expenditure more easily using cash.
Also don't go on holiday. Have a staystation in the garden.
Also grow more of your food.
"Is anyone investing in fixed rate cash deposits again?"
My wife and I hold close to the maximum in premium bonds which can be likened to cash deposits with the chance, however miniscule, of winning a substantial amount.
Also I'm invested in NS&I index bonds which I've rolled over several times.
I like having a finger in most pies.


With regard to the point about spending less, frugality comes naturally to me so in some ways that's a no-brainer, and if it helps keep a lid on inflation, then we're increasing the real rate of return on our cash savings. But what happens if we all stop going to our favourite restaurants and local shops? Those businesses may never recover from the recession that follows. I'll be making savings where I can, but also planning a (no doubt eye-wateringly expensive) visit to a certain restaurant that I would hate to see disappear.


.....................................................................................................................................................................

I understand your concerns. Restaurants come and go depending on economic circumstances. If your favourite restaurant closes another one will open up when the economy eventually improves. In a recession we all suffer but some more than others.
The public purse is almost empty and there is little scope IMO to bail out businesses "post-covid".
Easyrider
Posted: 24 August 2022 11:35:49(UTC)
#52

Joined: 09/11/2020(UTC)
Posts: 1,951

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Fife Clive;235859 wrote:
Bulldog Drummond;235848 wrote:
Fife Clive;235812 wrote:

So the answer to rising (relative) prices is reduced consumption, I think a GCSE economics student could tell you that. Of course your approach adopted by the ‘ordinary Joe’ en masse would be the makings of a major economic depression
Might an alternatively rational approach be to increase consumption in the expectation that prices will go up? We have been seeing this with high end cars and watches. I have been stocking up on a lot of alcohol.


Certainly expectations of persistent inflation in the future can be expected to bring consumption forward (for those lucky enough to be able to do it) - much as expectations of future deflation would subdue present demand. I believe this is the rationale for a low-but-positive target for inflation as adopted by central banks worldwide.

It has not gone unnoticed in my household that whisky prices have remained flat, despite energy being a huge part of a distiller’s cost base. I too have been taking the opportunity to stock up on some reliable staples - Bunnahabhain 12yo at <£40 and Laphroaig 10yo at <£30 may well look like the bargain of a lifetime in a few short years.



......................................................................................................................................................................
Indeed.
Expected high future inflation can stimulate consumption in the short term for those able to afford it because they can avoid paying higher prices in future.
The result can be a short-term economic bounce.
Expected deflation can have the opposite effect. People delay purchases in the expectation that prices will become lower.
If you really need or want something, now could be the time to buy it.
I'm well stocked up on single malts.
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