Funds Insider - Opening the door to funds

Welcome to the Citywire Funds Insider Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error

Return on Gilts
Mostly Rational
Posted: 30 September 2022 16:20:09(UTC)
#13

Joined: 09/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 312

Thanks: 108 times
Was thanked: 481 time(s) in 207 post(s)
The £16.78 makes it a dirty price, yes. It's still expensive, as indicated by the poor yield you calculated (correctly). Perhaps liquidity is an issue, certainly trade volumes are low. It looks like you happened to pick one of the most illiquid gilts on the market.

Perhaps consider a similar duration but more liquid gilt, such as TG23 (0.75% 22/07/2023) or TN24 (0.125% 31/01/2024).
3 users thanked Mostly Rational for this post.
Tim D on 30/09/2022(UTC), Harry Trout on 30/09/2022(UTC), Guest on 01/10/2022(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 30 September 2022 16:27:52(UTC)
#14

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,331

Thanks: 3258 times
Was thanked: 7895 time(s) in 3270 post(s)
Mostly Rational;240915 wrote:
The £16.78 makes it a dirty price, yes. It's still expensive, as indicated by the poor yield you calculated (correctly). Perhaps liquidity is an issue, certainly trade volumes are low. It looks like you happened to pick one of the most illiquid gilts on the market.

Perhaps consider a similar duration but more liquid gilt, such as TG23 (0.75% 22/07/2023) or TN24 (0.125% 31/01/2024).


BOE probably own a slug of the stock - QE purchase.
1 user thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Harry Trout on 30/09/2022(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 30 September 2022 18:00:32(UTC)
#15

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3539 time(s) in 821 post(s)

Part of my thinking here is the dreaded sequence of returns risk, so this is a little bit about risk management

We have used the HL Active Savings product to good effect to ensure we have cash maturing regularly (i..e. staging deposits to mature monthly, not in lumps). But this product is not available in HL SIPP and ISA

So I am finding the idea of having gilts maturing in a similar way to Active Savings quite attractive, particularly in Mrs T's ISA which is by far the larger of her pots. And we are trying to get to a point where our passive income covers our expenses, we are not far off.

However, I do totally agree with Mr Helpful's point but equities are in a different bucket for us and a different consideration.

I'm going to pick this up again next week but I think it has legs

Thanks again all

Harry
3 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
Jimmy Page on 30/09/2022(UTC), mdss68 on 30/09/2022(UTC), Tim D on 30/09/2022(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 30 September 2022 21:38:48(UTC)
#17

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
Posts: 3,985

Thanks: 6173 times
Was thanked: 6988 time(s) in 2761 post(s)
The slightly flawed idea with the balanced portfolio using Stocks + Bonds, was that as Stocks fell in price,
Bonds would rise in price or at least hold their price, Bonds thus providing the monies to fund the
necessary Stock purchases to rebalance the portfolio.

Supposing an investor adopting this policy had been 60/40 Stocks/Gilts,
then with today's falling stock prices the investor would turn to Gilts,
to provide the monies to top up Stocks, back to 60/40.

So why on earth with falling Stock prices would we now think about heading the wrong way,
funnelling monies into Gilts rather than Stocks ?

The 60/40 policy suffering from Gilts' weakness seems to have failed in its' purpose.
3 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Jimmy Page on 30/09/2022(UTC), Guest on 01/10/2022(UTC), Harry Trout on 01/10/2022(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 30 September 2022 23:20:26(UTC)
#16

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,331

Thanks: 3258 times
Was thanked: 7895 time(s) in 3270 post(s)
Harry Trout;240939 wrote:


I'm going to pick this up again next week but I think it has legs



Do what works for you personally. Everybody's circumstances differ.
1 user thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Harry Trout on 01/10/2022(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 01 October 2022 11:45:36(UTC)
#18

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3539 time(s) in 821 post(s)
Mr Helpful;240963 wrote:

So why on earth with falling Stock prices would we now think about heading the wrong way,
funnelling monies into Gilts rather than Stocks ?


Hi Mr Helpful

The improvement in yields this year has nudged me to look more positively at how I can safely deploy some of the cash reserves that I've held on the sidelines in 2022, particularly in Mrs T's HL ISA

I've been drip feeding Mrs T's HL ISA, SIP, GIA and LISA into all the usual Wealth Preservation, All Weather, Short Duration stuff that is discussed on the forum but everything I've tried has lost value in the last 12 months so I've been tentative so far. I'm feeling like I now want to get a bit more assertive.

We have known bills coming up over the coming years - school fees, support for university, replacement car and so on.

So in answer to your question "Who on earth ......." I guess my reply would be that in my case, where I don't want the faff of moving monies from my HL ISA and SIPP, what alternatives would guarantee my capital for the known bills I have coming up and earn a reasonable yield? Any ideas anyone else?

This is why I'm looking at Gilts. And in part some of my investigation is motivated by a desire to better understand some of the underlying economic backdrop too. I've learned a fair bit from this thread and the calculator exercise so thanks to all.

To counter any potential platform risk we have put a decent chunk in Vanguard too and our ISAs go there every year now.

Cheers

Harry
5 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
Guest on 01/10/2022(UTC), Thrugelmir on 01/10/2022(UTC), Mr Helpful on 01/10/2022(UTC), Tim D on 01/10/2022(UTC), Apostate on 02/10/2022(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 01 October 2022 12:31:26(UTC)
#19

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,331

Thanks: 3258 times
Was thanked: 7895 time(s) in 3270 post(s)
I suspect that the reality of what lies ahead hasn't fully sunk in yet. Many investors are still living in the bull market era. Viewing many shares ( and indirectly) asset prices as cheap or offering a discount.

A famous quote sums on the current mood.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” - Sir John Templeton,

Government Bonds are entering a new era. Higher yields are here to stay. They offer a risk free return in an unstable climate. As a consequence there'll be a period of adjustment while individual company shares are rerated. At the core the financially weak companies will portionately suffer.

Next year investment into Government Bonds will back on the agenda. As sure as night follows day.
5 users thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Harry Trout on 01/10/2022(UTC), Mr Helpful on 01/10/2022(UTC), Tim D on 01/10/2022(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 02/10/2022(UTC), Nigel Harris on 02/10/2022(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 01 October 2022 15:45:14(UTC)
#5

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3539 time(s) in 821 post(s)
ANDREW FOSTER;240875 wrote:

With 4.25% available on High Street savings, the risk premium isn't looking too attractive to me...


Hi Andrew

Thanks for the reply

The funds I am looking to invest are within Hargreaves Lansdown ISA and SIPP wrappers. The best ISA rate I can find is the 5 year fixed rate ISA with UBL at 3.7% and there the money is tied up for 5 years.

According to Trading View the 5 year UK Gilt Yield at close of play yesterday was 4.4%

I've run the 2.25% 07/12/27 Gilt through my calculator and come up with an estimated yield on a prudent basis of 3.95%. Prudent basis because I can't get a live price today so I have made worse case assumptions.

Thus, for an ISA scenario, I think Gilts could be a good option, especially as you can access the money in term if needed.

Well, for the purposes I intend it for it would certainly appear so (background upthread)

Cheers

Harry
Mr Helpful
Posted: 01 October 2022 16:33:53(UTC)
#27

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
Posts: 3,985

Thanks: 6173 times
Was thanked: 6988 time(s) in 2761 post(s)
Some financial historian posit that the golden time to have bought Gov't debt was 1982 ..........

https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate

but 1982 was also the time to have bought Global Stocks .............

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

So much for the supposed -ve correlation of Bonds with Stocks !!!

Regarding the Sequence of Returns Risk, Frank Armstrong tackles the issue head-on in
'The Informed Investor' chapter 18.
Basically two bucket approach .......
+ Adequate Liquid Reserves (e.g. short-term bonds, for 5-7 years of expenses)
+ Global Equities
In bad stock years, living expenses are drawn from the 'safe' bucket.
In good stock years withdrawals are are funded by sales of equities, with the surplus topping up the safe bucket to the desired allocation.

Personally in late retirement, moving monies steadily from Cash (much in broker accounts), plus a smidgen of USD Treasuries and TIPS, into Stocks.
Have been waiting so patiently and so long enough for more reasonable Stock prices (OK maybe not bargain basement yet), so why not begin to build Risk/Riskless up from present circa 40/60 ?
Rather than sit bemused ?

The mention of lower Gilt prices offering more reasonable yields, is one that had also crossed the mind here, but for now concentrating efforts on selected stocks.
My view re Gilts may well swing round to align with yours in due course !!!
But since free monies are ultimately destined for Global Stocks, not spending, (since investment income flow is adequate for our needs), prefer USD Treasuries to sidestep currency risk.

Trust these rambling thoughts make sense.
4 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Harry Trout on 01/10/2022(UTC), Sheerman on 01/10/2022(UTC), mdss68 on 01/10/2022(UTC), Jimmy Page on 02/10/2022(UTC)
mark spurrier
Posted: 02 October 2022 06:43:00(UTC)
#20

Joined: 17/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,696

Thanks: 178 times
Was thanked: 3322 time(s) in 1130 post(s)
Thrugelmir;241041 wrote:
I suspect that the reality of what lies ahead hasn't fully sunk in yet. Many investors are still living in the bull market era. Viewing many shares ( and indirectly) asset prices as cheap or offering a discount.

A famous quote sums on the current mood.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” - Sir John Templeton,

Government Bonds are entering a new era. Higher yields are here to stay. They offer a risk free return in an unstable climate. As a consequence there'll be a period of adjustment while individual company shares are rerated. At the core the financially weak companies will portionately suffer.

Next year investment into Government Bonds will back on the agenda. As sure as night follows day.


The risk free return relates to the very small likelihood that the coupon wont be paid and they wont redeem at par in "n" years.
Investment risk is another thing all together
If anyone can assess the macro and political risks correctly at the moment they are better man than me.

If Central Banks want to increase rates by 1% jumps the bond market is going to leap around US is looking at a 300% rise in rates - what does anyone think is going to happen with a fixed return bond?

Low risk? Absolutely not.

If you want a laugh at gilts = low risk have a look at the chart on this one

TREASURY 0.125% 22/03/2073

Why were the pension funds screaming ?
3 users thanked mark spurrier for this post.
Tim D on 02/10/2022(UTC), Harry Trout on 02/10/2022(UTC), Mr Helpful on 02/10/2022(UTC)
12 PagesPrevious page1234Next page»
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets