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A grown-up, dispassionate assessment of Brexit
Easyrider
Posted: 15 October 2022 19:24:40(UTC)
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What are members views on the UK leaving the EU? Has it been a success, a failure or something in between?
Or is it too early to have an informed view?
I haven't undertaken a detailed assessment but my perception is that it hasn't been a huge failure which was the scenario politicians such as Osborne and others expounded for political reasons.
On the other hand it hasn't been a great success either. Foreign inward investment has dried up, significant numbers of City workers have moved to work abroad, a trade treaty with the USA has not been signed and the issue of the Northern Ireland protocol remains unresolved.
It also IMO has made the breakup of the UK more likely.
On the positive side the Covid vacination programme was successful, probably more speedily implemented than would have been the case if we had remained in the EU. Also perhaps Brexit has enabled us to have a more supportive approach to Ukraine.
Of course newspapers tend to give a glowing interpretation or a depressing interpretation depending on their perception of the stance of their readership, which isn't particularly helpful in coming to a considered assessment.
IMO the one big negative is the opportunity cost of Brexit. Much time and effort by politicans, civil servants and others has been consumed by Brexit when they could have been doing something else, possibly more productive.
There has also been the political fallout which includes four PMs in six years which can't be helpful.
My view, for what it's worth, is that so far the positives don't outweigh the negatives. The huge gains forecast for "global Britain" haven't materialised.
We would probably be as well off, or perhaps better off, remaining in the EU. Any gains have been offset by the negatives.
Any views?
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Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 15 October 2022 19:40:40(UTC)
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Easyrider;243250 wrote:

On the other hand it hasn't been a great success either. Foreign inward investment has dried up, significant numbers of City workers have moved to work abroad

Is this true? Evidence? There has been no impact whatsoever on my firm, which is a global one. We continue to get investment and have not had to relocate anyone.

More generally, I have never yet seen any post here which had even the faintest understanding of EU processes and laws. I have been working on this crap for over 30 years. No one has ever taken me up on my offer to discuss in detail. My impression is that there is a lot of fuzzy thinking among remainers, and a lot of bogus statistics. That is not to say that Johnson didn't make a pig's ear of it and took no advantage of the opportunities.
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guantou
Posted: 15 October 2022 19:42:27(UTC)
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Anyone who depends on the majority of UK newspapers for information, or any news channel other than GB News, will have been bomarded with anti-Brexit propaganda, and as such will have a false opinion on whether Brexit has been a success or not.

If You Don’t Read the Newspaper You Are Uninformed.
If You Do Read the Newspaper You Are Misinformed.
If You Watch the BBC News You Are Brainwashed.
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Optimist
Posted: 15 October 2022 19:43:32(UTC)
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The one thing that annoys me is the seemingly unlimited timescale brexiteers have awarded themselves to call it a success.

They will however be dying off at an faster rate than remainers so eventually they will run out of time one way or another.
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Tom 123
Posted: 15 October 2022 19:44:28(UTC)
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Our trade deficit since leaving has been a disaster. It was bad before but has ballooned since.

No direct link but I think we haven't done well on the trade front since.

Covid masked a lot of the issues with brexit for a while.

Likewise Scottish independence more likely on the back of it.

Very hard pressed for anyone to say it has been a success.

I hope we can find our role in the world but struggling to see it.

Agree on vaccines and Ukraine two positives in some ways.
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Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 15 October 2022 19:48:23(UTC)
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The usual woolly thinking and total absence of evidence from the remainer posts so far. C- and do better in future.
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Jimmy Page
Posted: 15 October 2022 20:01:25(UTC)
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Optimist;243253 wrote:
The one thing that annoys me is the seemingly unlimited timescale brexiteers have awarded themselves to call it a success.

They will however be dying off at an faster rate than remainers so eventually they will run out of time one way or another.

The 'grown-up, dispassionate' bit barely survived first contact, I see.

A success is my answer. It removed us from an increasingly undemocratic behemoth which needs ever closer union to survive. That's it.
Those pushing for abolition of the HoL would correctly claim success at the moment of change. Likewise those who want to abolish the monarchy.
Likewise those, like me, who want our politicians to be directly accountable to me. I want to choose them, and get rid of them.

A remorseless loss of sovereignty is categorically undemocratic - if nothing else, witness the alacrity with which our elected politicians delegated more and more responsibility to the nameless, faceless bureaucrats. Less and less accountability for them so less and less influence available to us. There are enough supranational organisations sucking power from nation states as it is, without also tying ourselves to this particular protectionist construct.

It also make Scottish independence less likely, not more imo. But that's up to my neighbours anyway.

The biggest disappointment has been the number of people who only believe in democracy if they get their own way.
A middle class tantrum sneering at the 'thickos who believed in Nige or Boris' is on a par with the imbeciles chucking soup at a painting. And just as ineffectual.
Maybe their parents should have said no a bit more.

Edit. Sorry about the last para., 'Optimist'. That dispassionate bit is hard isn't it ;-)
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Thrugelmir
Posted: 15 October 2022 20:20:57(UTC)
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Far bigger issues exist at the moment to be concerned with. The world is changing rapidly, in many ways for the worse. Not least it is very apparent that individual countries will always act in their best interests first. Papering over the cracks in this global financial crisis is going to be increasingly difficult.
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Jimmy Page on 15/10/2022(UTC)
Keith Cobby
Posted: 15 October 2022 20:30:35(UTC)
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We've taken back political sovereignty, and that is all that matters to me. This thread is simply rehashing the old argument, I doubt anybody's position has changed.

Economically, it's only been 5 minutes, and as Zhou Enlai said, it's too early to say.
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Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 15 October 2022 20:34:44(UTC)
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I trust that this is the sort of discussion you had in mind, ER?
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Thrugelmir on 15/10/2022(UTC), stephen_s on 17/10/2022(UTC)
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