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Why do you think that Germany has blocked tanks to Ukraine?
Ramondo
Posted: 21 January 2023 08:33:45(UTC)
#1

Joined: 20/10/2018(UTC)
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Just announced that Germany has blocked tanks to Ukraine plus refused permission for Poland, Spain etc to send them too.

I would have thought that it was better to let Ukraine fight the battle rather than possibly Germany itself one day.
Pressure of internal German politics and hang over guilt from World War 2 also I believe.

You views please?
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 21 January 2023 09:06:32(UTC)
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There may be many reasons.

Possibly one is Russia has some goods on Sholz or other senior politicians and can simply blackmail them. German politics, like Hungary, is stacked with pro Russian or Russian controlled people.

Germany is a fragile coalition, it takes only a few dissenters to topple the government.

Then there is the financial aspect, German companies have invested heavily in Russia and Ukraine, and lent a lot of money there. They don't want to lose the lot by antagonising Russia further.

Germany claims there is no consensus to send Leopards, yet there appears to be not one other country objecting. And anyway, they don't need consensus, it's their decision alone. They are just making excuses.

As with COVID vaccines, they seem unable to think or act for themselves. They have to wait until everyone gives permission. Such is the way in the EU, individual thought is gone.


Right now Russia is preparing half a million troops and 800 upgraded T62 tanks. At some point these will hit a single point like a sledgehammer. The front will break and the Russians don't care if they lose 700 tanks doing it. Classic Soviet doctrine. It will make Prokhorovka look like a skirmish.

Ukraine needs to stop them and then defeat them, and it can't do that without modern tanks. Lots of them. When it happens it will be too late to send Leopards then. Without tanks, Ukraine will ultimately lose.

Germany is prepared to sit around and watch this happen. Shameful. Disgraceful.

Such is Berliningrad today.
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magic beans
Posted: 21 January 2023 09:22:40(UTC)
#6

Joined: 22/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 110

Shocking decision however if you dig a little deeper you might just possibly find another country blocking the supply.
Modern military equipment usually has third party equipment integrated into it so that different countries equipment is compatible with allies equipment (NATO).
Because of the nature of the equipment and the sensitivity around it the source of the equipment is usually reluctant to let it out of its control. Remember the fiasco over the UK Chinooks where Boeing would not release software that allowed the things to fly.
I would guess that the Leopards have an intelligent (sic) battlefield command and control system and that it is designed for use as a multiple unit constantly exchanging information and in a way too sophisticated or over engineered as is a lot of modern military equipment is and why the UK is happy to supply out dated equipment. But only guessing.
DIY Investing
Posted: 21 January 2023 09:38:57(UTC)
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Well I assume it's largely because they would like the Ivans to switch the gas back on at some point. Switching to 'alternative energy sources' has pushed up inflation and pissed the public off. They are also losing their swampy credibility now they have had to burn a shed load more coal!

Lack of a nuclear deterrent is also a bit of an issue when it comes to how tough Germany can get. Turns out 'soft power' = 'no power'. In the words of Al Capone, "You can get much further with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone".
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MarkSp
Posted: 21 January 2023 09:46:27(UTC)
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Ramondo;254580 wrote:
Just announced that Germany has blocked tanks to Ukraine plus refused permission for Poland, Spain etc to send them too.

I would have thought that it was better to let Ukraine fight the battle rather than possibly Germany itself one day.
Pressure of internal German politics and hang over guilt from World War 2 also I believe.

You views please?


Or....they dont want the leopard tanks to be exposed to the real world :)
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ANDREW FOSTER on 21/01/2023(UTC), Tim D on 21/01/2023(UTC), DIY Investing on 21/01/2023(UTC)
Spartacus
Posted: 21 January 2023 09:57:14(UTC)
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Isn't the elephant in the room why there's 1,000'sof Leopard tanks used by many countries, while there's only a handful of Challngers used only by the UK & Oman?
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ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 21 January 2023 10:00:39(UTC)
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magic beans;254587 wrote:
Shocking decision however if you dig a little deeper you might just possibly find another country blocking the supply.



AFAIK the only other country that has a legal veto is Spain and they are for sending.

In all that Ive seen on this I have not seen one other country named as objecting. But in the end it is Germany to decide, they built the things!

The UK didn't need anyone's say-so to send challengers.

But the BIGGER news almost is that the USA has authorised other countries to transfer F16's today. That is a massive thing.

Whether Germany wants it or not, escalation is happening. I suspect 2023 will see a decision on the battlefield.
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Tim D
Posted: 21 January 2023 10:09:33(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;254586 wrote:
Right now Russia is preparing half a million troops and 800 upgraded T62 tanks. At some point these will hit a single point like a sledgehammer. The front will break and the Russians don't care if they lose 700 tanks doing it. Classic Soviet doctrine. It will make Prokhorovka look like a skirmish.


But isn't that pretty much what the glory run on Kiev in the early days of the war was supposed to be? A sledgehammer blow. But it failed, apparently largely due to logistics incompetence (and heroic Ukrainian efforts, of course). And that was before Ukraine had HIMARS, a weapon system designed for the express purpose of killing the logistical hubs needed to pull off mass tank assaults. 800 tanks are of limited use if their ammo dumps and fuel depots keep exploding behind them.

Sticking too stubbornly to "Classic Soviet Doctrine" may well be what'll ultimately lose the war for Russia, if they cannot adapt to changing modern battlefield realities.

Certainly agree tanks for Ukraine would be a good thing.

I do remember seeing a clip from Russian TV (possibly via the "War Translated" Twitter guy) with some pundit saying something like "what the West doesn't understand is that there is no level of losses that we regard as unacceptable". But having read some histories of the WWII Eastern Front, I can see where the attitude comes from. And so the meatgrinder will continue, until something more decisive happens.
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Sara G
Posted: 21 January 2023 10:23:54(UTC)
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I think many people forget the fact that a unified Germany has only existed for 3 decades in the post WW2 era. A large chunk of the country used to be part of the extended Soviet Bloc, and may well be inclined to support Russia now, or at least not oppose Putin actively, including politicians as Andrew suggests. I'm convinced that this fact, and Angela Merkel's background, probably led to the situation Germany finds itself in now - too dependent on and too closely tied to Putin's regime.
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Spartacus
Posted: 21 January 2023 10:28:45(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;254586 wrote:



Right now Russia is preparing half a million troops and 800 upgraded T62 tanks. At some point these will hit a single point like a sledgehammer. The front will break and the Russians don't care if they lose 700 tanks doing it. Classic Soviet doctrine. It will make Prokhorovka look like a skirmish.

.



Easy to overlook that Russia is still in the easy stage of its "Special Miltary Operation". But the really hard part is occupying a country.
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