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Infrastructure Exposure for 2024-2025
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Johan De Silva
Posted: 24 February 2025 07:32:59(UTC)
#2307

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
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Hopefully the German elections will give the likes of 3i Groups and it's 3IN a boost and provide Europe with more certainty.

Even if AI energy use is removed the bull case for energy infrastructure is compelling

1) With PINT and 3I we are still getting a steady 9-12 percent total return you can not get with the same level of certainty anywhere else.

2) Even without AI energy, the demand is still high and the infrastructure will need to be replaced and data centres will be important to store and process trained agents and data.

Phil 2;335590 wrote:
GSF are delivering everything promised - so maybe the SP will only go down just very slightly today for once? 🤨 The ITC filing is obviously very important but I’ve not heard any reason why their US assets won’t fully qualify and the credits should be able to be sold on to a US concern.

GORE STREET ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC
Assets Energised and ITC Update

AI Summary
Gore Street Energy Storage Fund plc has successfully energised its remaining construction assets, bringing total capacity to 753.4 MW / 924.1 MWh, marking a 79% increase. The new assets include "Dogfish" (75 MW) and "Enderby" (57 MW).

All assets are expected to generate revenue by June 2025.

The company is also preparing to file for Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) and is exploring options for ITC proceeds, focusing on enhancing shareholder value.

The fund emphasizes a diversified portfolio strategy in various markets while managing sector challenges.

Starting to get interesting here. It's one of AGTs holdings and as they have done the DD I am more inclined to buy at the right price.

No bottom in sight as yields will start higher this week.
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4 users thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
what me worry? on 24/02/2025(UTC), Phil 2 on 24/02/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 24/02/2025(UTC), Auric on 24/02/2025(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 24 February 2025 08:42:41(UTC)
#2308

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,685
Based on today’s stats(DD) still look strong hold and buy. Opened up so hopefully trend will continue.

JDS what is the “bottom price” please.
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Johan De Silva
Posted: 25 February 2025 12:08:22(UTC)
#2309

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
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BB the question above in the near term was impossible at that time you posted as it depends on government yields not confirming any swing...

Today in the US the bond market has shifted from 1 rate cut to 2. This is significant.

UK and EU yields have followed.

..so to answer your question they are at low or past lows in the short run for now.
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2 users thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
Phil 2 on 25/02/2025(UTC), Big boy on 26/02/2025(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 26 February 2025 07:25:01(UTC)
#2313

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
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Annual results for HEIT announced today. Not involved there personally, but a big read across to GSF for obvious reasons.

Results for the Financial Year Ended 31 October 2024

Harmony Energy Income Trust plc, which invests in commercial scale battery energy storage systems ("BESS") in Great Britain, announces its results for the financial year ended the 31 October 2024 (the "Period").



Highlights for the Period include:

· 235.8 MWh / 117.9 MW of BESS assets energised;

· Portfolio 100% operational (790.8 MWh / 395.4 MW) across eight projects (the "Portfolio");

· 147% increase in operational revenue driven by increased operational capacity;

· First bp optimised assets commenced trading; and

· Estimated 51,945 tonnes of CO2e emissions avoided.

During the Period, the Company reached a key milestone as the final projects in the Portfolio became operational, bringing total operational capacity to 790.8 MWh / 395.4 MW. The Company continues to operate the largest exclusively 2-hour duration BESS portfolio in GB. Whilst BESS revenues across GB have remained relatively low, there has been a recovery from the lows seen in winter 2023/24. Encouragingly, multiple instances of strong revenue performance were seen, particularly in spring and summer when high renewable generation coincided with periods of low consumer demand.

Post-Period, the 2024/25 winter has seen strong revenue performance during periods when high consumer demand has coincided with low renewable generation. This demonstrates BESS's ability to perform well across different economic and meteorological conditions. Portfolio revenues have continued to be derived more from Arbitrage than Ancillary Services, a trend expected to continue, validating the Company's focus on 2-hour duration BESS assets.

Throughout the Period, the Company's shares have continued to trade at a significant discount to NAV. In response to this disconnect between the share price and the underlying asset value, the Board resolved to explore the sale of some or all of the Company's assets. An update on this process was announced on 20 February 2025.
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4 users thanked Phil 2 for this post.
Hilda Ogden on 26/02/2025(UTC), lindsay Morrison2 on 26/02/2025(UTC), John Bran on 26/02/2025(UTC), dlp6666 on 26/02/2025(UTC)
Hilda Ogden
Posted: 26 February 2025 08:27:07(UTC)
#2314

Joined: 31/07/2023(UTC)
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And in another RNS HEIT says -

Quote:
The unaudited NAV at 31 January 2025 was £209.83 million, or 92.38 pence per Ordinary Share, an increase of 3.86 pence per Ordinary Share (+4.36%) compared to 31 October 2024. The increase was driven by higher than modelled revenues over the Period


Very interesting to see now in a few days time what any offer for the company assets will be.
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3 users thanked Hilda Ogden for this post.
Phil 2 on 26/02/2025(UTC), John Bran on 26/02/2025(UTC), Big boy on 26/02/2025(UTC)
lindsay Morrison2
Posted: 26 February 2025 09:02:03(UTC)
#2316

Joined: 22/02/2017(UTC)
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...and GSF drops on the news mmmmmmmmmmm - just added
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Phil 2 on 26/02/2025(UTC), dlp6666 on 26/02/2025(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 26 February 2025 09:19:30(UTC)
#2317

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
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Re GSF, this really interesting piece just popped into my Google Finance feed, from Energy Storage News. There is a view that Trump won’t be able to cancel EXISTING tax credits, even if he wanted to.

https://www.energy-stora...ks-on-us-bess-projects/

“Meanwhile, financial services Morningstar has reported that renewables operator EDP Renewables’ (EDPR) shares have fallen by approximately 30% following the election of Donald Trump. Morningstar says the sector is undervalued and that tax credits, including ITCs, will be very hard to repeal.

“Existing tax credits cannot be repealed before their expiration, and pulling forward the expiration of the IRA tax credits for new projects before 2032 will require approval from Congress, which might prove challenging since most renewables’ projects are installed in red states,” the firm said in a note.

Continuing, “Our base case scenario is that the expiration will be pulled forward to 2027, but due to safe harboring, projects commissioned up to 2031 would still be entitled to tax credits as long as 5% of the projects’ investments have been spent in 2027.”
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4 users thanked Phil 2 for this post.
John Bran on 26/02/2025(UTC), dlp6666 on 26/02/2025(UTC), Guest on 26/02/2025(UTC), Taltunes on 26/02/2025(UTC)
lindsay Morrison2
Posted: 26 February 2025 09:28:26(UTC)
#2318

Joined: 22/02/2017(UTC)
Posts: 590

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Phil 2;335812 wrote:
Re GSF, this really interesting piece just popped into my Google Finance feed, from Energy Storage News. There is a view that Trump won’t be able to cancel EXISTING tax credits, even if he wanted to.

https://www.energy-stora...ks-on-us-bess-projects/

“Meanwhile, financial services Morningstar has reported that renewables operator EDP Renewables’ (EDPR) shares have fallen by approximately 30% following the election of Donald Trump. Morningstar says the sector is undervalued and that tax credits, including ITCs, will be very hard to repeal.

“Existing tax credits cannot be repealed before their expiration, and pulling forward the expiration of the IRA tax credits for new projects before 2032 will require approval from Congress, which might prove challenging since most renewables’ projects are installed in red states,” the firm said in a note.

Continuing, “Our base case scenario is that the expiration will be pulled forward to 2027, but due to safe harboring, projects commissioned up to 2031 would still be entitled to tax credits as long as 5% of the projects’ investments have been spent in 2027.”



Thanks Phil - good to know as we both have a bit riding on it!!
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Big boy
Posted: 26 February 2025 10:02:36(UTC)
#2315

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,685
Hilda Ogden;335804 wrote:
And in another RNS HEIT says -

Quote:
The unaudited NAV at 31 January 2025 was £209.83 million, or 92.38 pence per Ordinary Share, an increase of 3.86 pence per Ordinary Share (+4.36%) compared to 31 October 2024. The increase was driven by higher than modelled revenues over the Period


Very interesting to see now in a few days time what any offer for the company assets will be.



As HEIT (plus 51%) have more than doubled since 12 month lows we are now clearly seeing the shares move from "fear" towards 'greed' but for now imo to-day they are still a strong HOLD.
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2 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Hilda Ogden on 26/02/2025(UTC), lindsay Morrison2 on 26/02/2025(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 26 February 2025 10:09:50(UTC)
#2310

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,685
Johan De Silva;335707 wrote:
BB the question above in the near term was impossible at that time you posted as it depends on government yields not confirming any swing...

Today in the US the bond market has shifted from 1 rate cut to 2. This is significant.

UK and EU yields have followed.

..so to answer your question they are at low or past lows in the short run for now.


I see AGT have done their DD so presume they are happy or not worried about interest rates this week/month. Sorry to tease you and I appreciate your comments and hopefully mine are useful from time to time....
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