Funds Insider - Opening the door to funds

Welcome to the Citywire Funds Insider Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error
Donald Trump 2nd Presidency: good or bad for stockmarket?
+ Reply to discussion
Options
MBA MBA
Posted: 03 January 2024 08:48:37(UTC)
#35

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725

Thanks: 3475 times
Was thanked: 3599 time(s) in 1156 post(s)
The ‘elite liberals’ (cliched as it sounds) don’t get what Trump is…Nearly every western country now has a critical mass of the electorate that wants to vote for a trump. They don’t care that he is corrupt misogynist, he is the closest thing they’ve had to a metaphorical grenade in decades to throw at post 1960’s liberal progressive politics and the ‘ruling classes’ that in the west in the last 20 years have taken ‘progressive’ politics to an extreme. Plus unlike Corbyn he doesn’t appear to threaten people’s livelihoods and wealth. Le Penn, Girt Wilders, Farage are all metaphorical grenades.
Back to top Quote
6 users thanked MBA MBA for this post.
Tim D on 03/01/2024(UTC), stephen_s on 03/01/2024(UTC), Jay P on 03/01/2024(UTC), Keith Clunk on 04/01/2024(UTC), Chalky W on 25/01/2024(UTC), Neminem Laedit on 23/04/2024(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 03 January 2024 10:28:01(UTC)
#36

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,128

Thanks: 11374 times
Was thanked: 18244 time(s) in 5985 post(s)
I see it as a backlash against the general flow towards globalisation and open borders.

For Trump it's the Mexico border. For Le Pen and Wilders it's against North African and Middle Eastern illegal migration. For Farage it was Free Movement and now the Channel crossers.

The theme is the same in each case.

And in all cases the response from the left is the same. Attack the person, not the message. Stick a few labels on them 'far-right', 'xenophobe', 'bigot' etc. etc. Cancel them, ban them, disrupt meetings.

Anything but actually discuss the issues they are raising.

Ignoring the issues is just like the Brexit campaign. The issues are avoided because the left really has no answers to them.


As for Trump, we don't yet know if he will be able to stand. And the shadow of the Capitol Riots hangs over him and turns many more traditional Republicans away from him. But if he DID stand and if he won I don't think it would make much difference to the markets. The effects would more be diplomatic and political. Changes in US policy on Ukraine could create major rifts with Europe and within NATO in the short term.
Back to top Quote
4 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
stephen_s on 03/01/2024(UTC), Dexi on 03/01/2024(UTC), MBA MBA on 03/01/2024(UTC), Jay P on 03/01/2024(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 03 January 2024 11:14:01(UTC)
#37

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,689

Thanks: 5682 times
Was thanked: 11117 time(s) in 4254 post(s)
Remember Global Investors are reacting to all of these issues every hour/minute of the day and not sure any of us can add any value. Does anyone think they are ahead of all the Global Investors. ?

All our views must be regarded as storytelling (not fact) or does someone know differently.

I find it’s best for all the Global Investors to act then we simply
understand through their reaction what markets will do and remember they always over react......so much simpler for us to take full advantage.

I appreciate most of you think I am wrong but a lifetime in the industry made me realise that no one can forecast the future so why both. Remember I ran many Funds with average performance if I was lucky so do understand the faults of the industry and also one has to say the faults of investors.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
2 users thanked Big boy for this post.
MBA MBA on 03/01/2024(UTC), Captain Slugwash on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Dexi
Posted: 03 January 2024 11:39:34(UTC)
#31

Joined: 03/04/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,753

Thanks: 7830 times
Was thanked: 3100 time(s) in 1230 post(s)
You have to change your life;291614 wrote:
I hope Trump wins, just for Biden's handling of the Gaza atrocities.


The pro - Israel lobby is very strong in the US , and both sides need the Jewish vote , so I wouldn`t count on any changes in policy .
With Trump being so pally with Putin , things could go badly for Ukraine . Not sure how that will affect markets , if at all . Defence sector obviously could benefit , but that trade has probably run it`s course already .
Back to top Quote
2 users thanked Dexi for this post.
Tim D on 25/01/2024(UTC), You have to change your life on 25/01/2024(UTC)
MBA MBA
Posted: 03 January 2024 11:50:09(UTC)
#33

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725

Thanks: 3475 times
Was thanked: 3599 time(s) in 1156 post(s)
Dexi;291662 wrote:
You have to change your life;291614 wrote:
I hope Trump wins, just for Biden's handling of the Gaza atrocities.


The pro - Israel lobby is very strong in the US , and both sides need the Jewish vote , so I wouldn`t count on any changes in policy .
With Trump being so pally with Putin , things could go badly for Ukraine . Not sure how that will affect markets , if at all . Defence sector obviously could benefit , but that trade has probably run it`s course already .


Really? With millions of Muslims in most western countries (and many Muslims are moderate and want peace and a settlement as much as anyone else) it strikes me most western governments are now very sensitive and not pro Israel overtly (every single well resourced country would have struck back hard at the Hamas attack). Look at Starmer getting unstuck with his own party, riots in Germany’s cities by Muslim immigrants and people on the left, many hundreds of thousands marching in every Western European country. Heck even at my son’s school the Muslim parents set up a stall to raise funds for Palestine. If Jews had done that for Israel there would have been mayhem.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
1 user thanked MBA MBA for this post.
You have to change your life on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 25 January 2024 08:57:40(UTC)
#38

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
Posts: 8,883

Thanks: 33209 times
Was thanked: 24362 time(s) in 7229 post(s)
Some analysis from GS of Trump's possible impact on various markets:
https://www.thetimes.co....-trade-tariff-7tx5nmnrh
or https://archive.vn/JlHDN
Back to top Quote
1 user thanked Tim D for this post.
MBA MBA on 25/01/2024(UTC)
Anthony French
Posted: 25 January 2024 09:05:48(UTC)
#39

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,152
Only buy companies that an idiot can run as sooner or later one will be
appointed.
WB

If u look at America as a company u will be able to
answer your own question.
Back to top Quote
NoMoreKickingCans
Posted: 25 January 2024 09:51:45(UTC)
#40

Joined: 26/02/2012(UTC)
Posts: 4,470
Don’t forget the third candidate for president...

https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/st...1749869596746842561?s=20
Back to top Quote
Anthony French
Posted: 25 January 2024 10:23:25(UTC)
#41

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,152
It's difficult to understand, I know the system is mostly to blame, that with
all the talent in America that the two front runners are Biden and Trump.
Difficult to say who will be worse for America let alone the rest of
the world.
Back to top Quote
1 user thanked Anthony French for this post.
North Star on 25/01/2024(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 25 January 2024 10:35:38(UTC)
#32

Joined: 17/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 2,194
Dexi;291662 wrote:
You have to change your life;291614 wrote:
I hope Trump wins, just for Biden's handling of the Gaza atrocities.


The pro - Israel lobby is very strong in the US , and both sides need the Jewish vote , so I wouldn`t count on any changes in policy .
With Trump being so pally with Putin , things could go badly for Ukraine . Not sure how that will affect markets , if at all . Defence sector obviously could benefit , but that trade has probably run it`s course already .


Agree. America really has only one special relationship and it is with Israel. That won't change with the next President but Republicans don't like the idea of being protector and piggybank for Ukraine.
Back to top Quote
6 Pages«Previous page23456Next page
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets