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Wave Action
Posted: 11 December 2023 13:36:49(UTC)
#1

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
Posts: 388

Thanks: 461 times
Was thanked: 624 time(s) in 260 post(s)
Using technical analysis ( TA ) and fundamentals . Started this in the sub section as I don't want to clutter up the main board. Why not ? Everybody tries to time the market. On a daily basis there's posts buying IT's trading at a discount , others just taking a punt and some just topping up. I use the tea leaves and have done for years. I'm not day trading as I couldn't but I trade short term in an ISA and SIPP.
My set up isn't perfect as nothing is but it can be rewarding . I use a few simple indicators and moving averages in an attempt to ride the waves. Normally ETF's which track the indices such as UK , US , Europe and Japan. Throw in a few UK shares and that's it. My benchmark is the MSCI World Index as a global tracker. It's the easiest DIY way to set and forget and go down the pub . Very good track record since launch in 1969 and currently 10% PA. Not many funds can manage that over time.
I'll throw in a few links about the economy along the way just to add a bit of commentary. Rates, inflation, growth prospects, that kind of stuff. Here goes I'll run it until end of 2024 then it can be judged . Good luck everybody.

EDIT...PLEASE GO TO PAGE 16 to read an updated and clearer idea of my system. Looking through these earlier pages will highlight out of date information and cause confusion. Thanks.
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8 users thanked Wave Action for this post.
Anthony French on 11/12/2023(UTC), Jesse M on 11/12/2023(UTC), Johan De Silva on 11/12/2023(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 11/12/2023(UTC), Harry Trout on 11/12/2023(UTC), Dentmaster on 11/12/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 11/12/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 03/01/2024(UTC)
Wave Action
Posted: 11 December 2023 13:51:01(UTC)
#2

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
Posts: 388

Thanks: 461 times
Was thanked: 624 time(s) in 260 post(s)
This week . What's happening. Well there's the CPI report from the US and the FED meeting .

Markets have been on an impressive run since late OCT. SP 500 up from 4100 to 4600.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

Dow the same and dragging the rest of the world up with it.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

Market indicators have gone from Fear to Greed in no time..

https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Shares and Bonds/gilts have rallied together on the hope of inflation and a peak in rates. TLT and SPX on the same chart.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=15

Seasonality chart did suggest an October rally before the Santa rally. Let's see.

https://charts.equityclo...harts/indexes/$INDU.PNG

Many of the indicators I look at are overbought but the SP 500 is still going up and that 10 day moving average ( red ) is what I'm watching now. Any break I'll consider that a possible correction.

https://stockcharts.com/...226295345&listNum=1

At the other end the VIX is crushed . Will it turn up. Let's see how the US responds to this weeks data.

https://stockcharts.com/...=226294304&listNum=1
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4 users thanked Wave Action for this post.
Jesse M on 11/12/2023(UTC), Johan De Silva on 11/12/2023(UTC), Carl blue nose on 13/06/2024(UTC), Silas on 13/11/2024(UTC)
Anthony French
Posted: 11 December 2023 14:28:44(UTC)
#3

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,124
Wait for the didymus's
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Anthony French
Posted: 11 December 2023 14:42:27(UTC)
#4

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,124
The easiest was to make money from charts.

If u want to buy, draw a straight line under the last support
point. Move the line up if the price progresses, the longer
the price is below the line the more the losses u are taking.

If u want to buy more draw a line above resistance and move it down
as the price weakens.
I post this freely as most cannot be bothered, as they can't
admit to being wrong.


There are two emotions in the market fear and greed,
the problem is we hope when we should fear and
fear when we should hope.

William J O'Neil
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Anthony French
Posted: 11 December 2023 14:51:05(UTC)
#5

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,124
"Most people want to be told what to buy, they can't be bothered
to pick up pennies in the street."

GL
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Anthony French
Posted: 11 December 2023 15:01:03(UTC)
#6

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,124
Heikin-Ashi: A Better Candlestick

By JUSTIN KUEPPER Updated September 30, 2023
Reviewed by CHARLES POTTERS
Fact checked by AMANDA JACKSON

Heikin-Ashi, also sometimes spelled Heiken-Ashi, means "average bar" in Japanese. The Heikin-Ashi technique can be used in conjunction with candlestick charts when trading securities to spot market trends and predict future prices. It's useful for making candlestick charts more readable and trends easier to analyze. For example, traders can use Heikin-Ashi charts to know when to stay in trades while a trend persists but get out when the trend pauses or reverses. Most profits are generated when markets are trending, so predicting trends correctly is necessary.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
The Heikin-Ashi technique is used with candlestick charts to help traders identify and analyze trends.
There are five primary signals used in Heikin-Ashi charts.
Heikin-Ashi charts can be used in any market.
The Heikin-Ashi Formula
Normal candlestick charts are composed of a series of open-high-low-close (OHLC) candles set apart by a time series. The Heikin-Ashi technique shares some characteristics with standard candlestick charts but uses a modified formula of close-open-high-low (COHL):

Close
=
1
4
(Open
+
High
+
Low
+
Close)
(
The average price of the current bar
)
Open
=
1
2
(Open of Prev. Bar
+
Close of Prev. Bar
)
(
The midpoint of the previous bar
)
High
=
Max[High, Open, Close
]
Low
=
Min[Low, Open, Close]
​

Close=
4
1
​
(Open+High+Low+Close)
(The average price of the current bar)
Open=
2
1
​
(Open of Prev. Bar+Close of Prev. Bar)
(The midpoint of the previous bar)
High=Max[High, Open, Close]
Low=Min[Low, Open, Close]
​


Constructing the Chart
The Heikin-Ashi chart is constructed like a regular candlestick chart, except the formula for calculating each bar is different, as shown above. The time series is defined by the user, depending on the type of chart desired, such as daily, hourly, or five-minute intervals. The down days are represented by filled candles, while the up days are represented by empty candles. These can also be colored in by the chart platform, so up days are white or green, and down days are red or black, for example.
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Anthony French
Posted: 11 December 2023 16:30:19(UTC)
#7

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,124
Anyone who doesn't look at a chart, hasn't heard of machine trading.
Where it wouldn't buy a share if it fell by ten percent, although
it might short but might buy if a share rises by ten percent.
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Anthony French
Posted: 11 December 2023 16:37:42(UTC)
#11

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,124
Just to be totally clear, no indicators can predict the future
but if u are buying a share that is rising u can tilt the
odds in your favour, maybe 60/40, as opposed to falling where
it's 30/70 in your favour but that doesn't stop people
from doing it.
The trading gods say thankyou for your co-operation.
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1 user thanked Anthony French for this post.
Lindisfarne on 11/12/2023(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 11 December 2023 17:25:35(UTC)
#8

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676

Thanks: 5660 times
Was thanked: 11110 time(s) in 4250 post(s)
Anthony French;289239 wrote:
Anyone who doesn't look at a chart, hasn't heard of machine trading.
Where it wouldn't buy a share if it fell by ten percent, although
it might short but might buy if a share rises by ten percent.



Now I understand why most investors underperform......It seem chartists buy at the top and sell at the bottom.....long may it continue as makes our job easier..
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4 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Thrugelmir on 11/12/2023(UTC), Dentmaster on 11/12/2023(UTC), Keith Cobby on 13/12/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 03/01/2024(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 11 December 2023 18:08:12(UTC)
#10

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,317

Thanks: 3253 times
Was thanked: 7876 time(s) in 3263 post(s)
Big boy;289244 wrote:
Anthony French;289239 wrote:
Anyone who doesn't look at a chart, hasn't heard of machine trading.
Where it wouldn't buy a share if it fell by ten percent, although
it might short but might buy if a share rises by ten percent.



Now I understand why most investors underperform......It seem chartists buy at the top and sell at the bottom.....long may it continue as makes our job easier..



"I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don't believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody's that smart."

the late ....CHARLIE MUNGER
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3 users thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Harry Trout on 11/12/2023(UTC), ChesterDog on 11/12/2023(UTC), Tim D on 11/12/2023(UTC)
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