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Big boy
Posted: 13 December 2023 16:05:54(UTC)
#48

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
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allocator3844;289449 wrote:
if there is a way of beating the market / benchmark, then why would anybody share this information ?


Most Houses cant play in IT/ICs so IMO they are all on a level playfield whereas we can beat the market/benchmark especially in the current bull market for many stocks and sectors.....
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ben ski on 13/12/2023(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 13 December 2023 18:49:23(UTC)
#49

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,354

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allocator3844;289449 wrote:
if there is a way of beating the market / benchmark, then why would anybody share this information ?


Only if you can make more money selling courses and subscriptions than you can trading it – or you want that injection of subscriptions to trade with, while it still works.

IT discount trading is a bit different.. Too small and illiquid for most fund managers to bother with – also too obvious and well known to try and protect (it's been known for decades, even in academia).. And at times like this, still so clearly present – perhaps even more than in the past – that you almost want investors to start behaving a bit more rationally.

Discounts in Private Equity could persist indefinitely, just because the retail space is too skittish and uninformed to take a reasonable view on it.. And while that's great when you want to build positions, the worry that their actual value's never realised is also there.. Discounts on PE were vastly overblown in the years following the GFC – and premiums far too high before it.. A bit more rationality might not be a bad thing
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Tim D on 13/12/2023(UTC)
Wave Action
Posted: 14 December 2023 12:13:43(UTC)
#53

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
Posts: 388
Relentless . Just like a bear market rally and up nearly 15% . HOLD as price is above orange 10 day MA.
My system is pretty simple really and yes if markets go sideways or whipsaw then it's no different and a struggle.
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Wave Action
Posted: 14 December 2023 13:17:14(UTC)
#54

Joined: 30/11/2023(UTC)
Posts: 388
Trading on a discount to NAV ? A question for those who have a handle on this. Yes I see the discount on the various charting packages but where's the trigger. ?
Let's say you don't have NAV but have a basic chart like I've been providing in a monthly timeframe . 5 year view . There's the 5 period MA in orange and the MACD indicator below.
A few at random that I've seen on the Transaction thread. Start with SSON . Early 2022 SSON breaks down and below the 5 MA in orange. To me I'd SELL as it's better to be safe than sorry. So it's sold 1900-1800p . MACD has broken down where blue is below red and histogram is below zero. Recently it's showing signs of consolidation but of course anything can happen .My indicators are being challenged for a long term BUY.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

Hit the 5 year view of NAV and we're not far away as we have a large discount . NAV or simple chart does it really matter ?

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...tment-trust-ord-gbp0.01

USA and again chart signalling BUY territory after SELL at 300p

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

Need 5 year view of NAV.

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...ord-us-growth-trust-ord

HVPE..Buy territory after SELL at 2600.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...private-equity-ordinary

and the family favourite CGT which gave a SELL at 500. It's a touch negative but who knows. ?

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...rust-plc-ord-25p-shares

So there you have it . It's one or the other unless you're an expert at NAV. I'm not an expert . I just observe and try to make sense of it all.
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Anthony French
Posted: 14 December 2023 14:56:15(UTC)
#57

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,124
SSON was a sell/don't CPA after it failed to go higher below £14.60p
and a buy when it traded higher above 12.24p.
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Anthony French
Posted: 14 December 2023 15:09:03(UTC)
#58

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,124
There are two stages to a chart.
It's either going higher or sideways
It's either going lower or sideways.
It's not rocket science.

A uptrend is a series of higher highs.
A downtrend is a series of lower lows.
Now that might be rocket science to a few.
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Big boy
Posted: 14 December 2023 15:39:15(UTC)
#55

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676

Thanks: 5660 times
Was thanked: 11110 time(s) in 4250 post(s)
Wave Action;289579 wrote:
Trading on a discount to NAV ? A question for those who have a handle on this. Yes I see the discount on the various charting packages but where's the trigger. ?
Let's say you don't have NAV but have a basic chart like I've been providing in a monthly timeframe . 5 year view . There's the 5 period MA in orange and the MACD indicator below.
A few at random that I've seen on the Transaction thread. Start with SSON . Early 2022 SSON breaks down and below the 5 MA in orange. To me I'd SELL as it's better to be safe than sorry. So it's sold 1900-1800p . MACD has broken down where blue is below red and histogram is below zero. Recently it's showing signs of consolidation but of course anything can happen .My indicators are being challenged for a long term BUY.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

Hit the 5 year view of NAV and we're not far away as we have a large discount . NAV or simple chart does it really matter ?

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...tment-trust-ord-gbp0.01

USA and again chart signalling BUY territory after SELL at 300p

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

Need 5 year view of NAV.

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...ord-us-growth-trust-ord

HVPE..Buy territory after SELL at 2600.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...private-equity-ordinary

and the family favourite CGT which gave a SELL at 500. It's a touch negative but who knows. ?

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...rust-plc-ord-25p-shares

So there you have it . It's one or the other unless you're an expert at NAV. I'm not an expert . I just observe and try to make sense of it all.



We only have one "trigger" and thats discounts and premiums as they move to extremes.

Hopefully that explains when all the selling has finished and then what do you do??

IMO keep it simple and don't both about past performance .just let the market make all your decisions.

Leave all the mini/macro stuff to the Global Investors who are trading on this information every second of the day.

Keep it simple....buying makes a stock go up and selling makes it go down....This doesn't happen with Funds of course and this is where the IT/IC anomalies come into play.
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Wave Action on 14/12/2023(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 14 December 2023 16:02:00(UTC)
#59

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676

Thanks: 5660 times
Was thanked: 11110 time(s) in 4250 post(s)
Anthony French;289593 wrote:
There are two stages to a chart.
It's either going higher or sideways
It's either going lower or sideways.
It's not rocket science.

A uptrend is a series of higher highs.
A downtrend is a series of lower lows.
Now that might be rocket science to a few.





Some will remember Bob Beckman...

When its going up its going up and

when its going down its going down...

Very clever because he was always right.c
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2 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Keith Cobby on 15/12/2023(UTC), gillyann on 29/03/2024(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 14 December 2023 16:46:49(UTC)
#56

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,354

Thanks: 426 times
Was thanked: 3898 time(s) in 1013 post(s)
Wave Action;289579 wrote:
Trading on a discount to NAV ? A question for those who have a handle on this. Yes I see the discount on the various charting packages but where's the trigger. ?
Let's say you don't have NAV but have a basic chart like I've been providing in a monthly timeframe . 5 year view . There's the 5 period MA in orange and the MACD indicator below.
A few at random that I've seen on the Transaction thread. Start with SSON . Early 2022 SSON breaks down and below the 5 MA in orange. To me I'd SELL as it's better to be safe than sorry. So it's sold 1900-1800p . MACD has broken down where blue is below red and histogram is below zero. Recently it's showing signs of consolidation but of course anything can happen .My indicators are being challenged for a long term BUY.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

Hit the 5 year view of NAV and we're not far away as we have a large discount . NAV or simple chart does it really matter ?

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...tment-trust-ord-gbp0.01

USA and again chart signalling BUY territory after SELL at 300p

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

Need 5 year view of NAV.

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...ord-us-growth-trust-ord

HVPE..Buy territory after SELL at 2600.

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...private-equity-ordinary

and the family favourite CGT which gave a SELL at 500. It's a touch negative but who knows. ?

https://bigcharts.market...ggle=false&state=11

https://www.hl.co.uk/sha...rust-plc-ord-25p-shares

So there you have it . It's one or the other unless you're an expert at NAV. I'm not an expert . I just observe and try to make sense of it all.


In the past, when I've run trend backtests on ITs, it hasn't worked well.. You can find plenty of cases where it seems to work, but there's too much noise in the signal on the whole – and obviously it's those false buy and sell signals that lead to whipsawing.

For me it's mainly been highly liquid US stocks and indices that trend works on, because it only works on the basis that there's a lag on how information moves through the market – starting with institutionals and smart money, and winding up with retail.. And on these small, illiquid investments, it's not clear that's happening.. Although you can find cases where MACD seems to oscillate quite consistently – but I'm not sure the effect would be much different from rebalancing
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2 users thanked ben ski for this post.
Wave Action on 14/12/2023(UTC), Thrugelmir on 14/12/2023(UTC)
Anthony French
Posted: 15 December 2023 08:08:38(UTC)
#60

Joined: 09/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 9,124
AAL now a buy above £18.00
current price £18.30
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