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Thrugelmir
Posted: 30 April 2024 19:26:51(UTC)
#31

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,349

AHICK;304222 wrote:


Not disagreeing with point that success can be due to stars aligning, but as a boyhood Aberdeen supporter I'm not convinced by that example...



Three years in the job Fergie flirted with relegation. Success was built on the foundations of an exceptional youth team that came through the ranks en masse. Though having listened to him speak (in a business context) he's an articulate man with a formidable skill set. Would have made a sucess of something somewhere.
bearcub
Posted: 30 April 2024 20:36:10(UTC)
#26

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smg8;304216 wrote:

So RLGES has done well past few years, and I am drinking the Kool aid that's it's the managers highly differentiated approach, and their corporate lifecycle investing, and so on.

But weren't people saying the same thing about Fundsmith a few years ago? Who'd buy value stocks, just buy quality, high ROCE etc, he's a genius blah blah.



There's no like for like replacement in the OEIC world, the only offering that has a similar return profile and approach really is JGGI. But again, no one cared about JGGI in 2018/19/20 - who knows if that will still be a good bet over the 10/20/30 year time horizon some people have....

I reckon there's a pattern emerging here amongst the global generalist funds and trusts: at different times over the past few years, Mid Wynd, Fundsmith, RLGES, JGGI, Heriot Global, Alliance Trust etc. have outperformed for a few years each, then gone off the boil (or may go off the boil at some point in future).

Potentially there's truth in the corporate lifecycle approach – by applying it to the lifecycle of the trusts and funds themselves. Perhaps you have to be prepared to move money around between the global generalists (or buy a tracker if you want an easy life), whereas with something like SMT or PNL you buy the strategy for the long term and stay put?
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smg8
Posted: 01 May 2024 07:26:59(UTC)
#27

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bearcub;304237 wrote:
[quote=smg8;304216]

I reckon there's a pattern emerging here amongst the global generalist funds and trusts: at different times over the past few years, Mid Wynd, Fundsmith, RLGES, JGGI, Heriot Global, Alliance Trust etc. have outperformed for a few years each, then gone off the boil (or may go off the boil at some point in future).

Potentially there's truth in the corporate lifecycle approach – by applying it to the lifecycle of the trusts and funds themselves. Perhaps you have to be prepared to move money around between the global generalists (or buy a tracker if you want an easy life), whereas with something like SMT or PNL you buy the strategy for the long term and stay put?


I think the core difference between JGGI/RLGES and the others mentioned (though not sure on Alliance Trust) is the others are all just a bet on a factor.

Some of them the managers dress it up, some of them the managers don't even try and pretend - if growth/quality is doing well their fund does well, if growth/quality isn't doing well their fund isn't doing well. Obviously there's a stock picking effect too, but essentially if quality/growth are having a mare so are those funds.

RLGES and JGGI on the other hand are 2 of a handful of funds who aren't betting on a factor. They are putting their returns down to idiosyncratic stock picks. So in theory (and yes it's only in theory as we know what the data tells us about picking winning funds) there's no reason their strategies should ever not perform, unless they get the stock picking wrong - which will happen time to time.

If you look at the last 5 years of returns, given the vastly different markets we've had, and we look at the relative performance of RLGES/JGGI/Fundsmith/SMT (using NAV of JGGI and SMT) vs the MSCI World you can see a clear drop off from the 2 bets on quality/growth when the macro changed and gave them a style headwind, compared to the style agnostic funds;




I think that's why it's quite easy to believe the story that these are the exception to the rule around active funds - but again we could be looking back in a couple of years thinking "what on earth were we thinking"!


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smg8
Posted: 01 May 2024 08:41:18(UTC)
#36

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Copying from transactions thread for those who have any interest;

I have sold all of Royal London Global Equity Select from the SIPP portfolios.

This has been a great fund for me since purchase in early 2021. My holding is showing +62%, so over double the return of the index for the period I've held it. Core holding, 18% of portfolio.

We all know these runs of outperformance don't go on forever, so perhaps the team leaving is a blessing in disguise and gets a solid profit locked in before it all goes wrong.

We also all know the odds are stacked against us choosing active funds, the data and facts don't lie. In this case you finally think you've found one doing something different, and the managers bugger off and set up shop on their own :)

The proceeds have gone into global trackers and other existing holdings - the timescale of my SIPP is minimum 20 years (until I can access) but in reality maybe 50 years until my expiration all being well!

As such the chance of picking which active can outperform for a 3-5 year period for the next half century is something I have neither the time nor inclination for.

Core of global trackers/tracker like funds, with a couple of risk reducing actives to protect my downside;

SIPPS

Trackers 47.7%
Schroder Gbl Eq 17.2%
Vanguard Global Sustainable 14.6%
BG Global Income Growth 10.9%
Aviva Gbl Eq Inc 9.6%

I will be selling in the ISA's too, but haven't quite decided what to do with the proceeds there so haven't hit the button. The ISAs are a slightly different strategy and timescale, and RLGES going may mean a bit more of a reshuffle. TBC.
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bearcub
Posted: 01 May 2024 09:26:12(UTC)
#28

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smg8;304259 wrote:

I think the core difference between JGGI/RLGES and the others mentioned (though not sure on Alliance Trust) is the others are all just a bet on a factor.



RLGES and JGGI on the other hand are 2 of a handful of funds who aren't betting on a factor. They are putting their returns down to idiosyncratic stock picks. So in theory (and yes it's only in theory as we know what the data tells us about picking winning funds) there's no reason their strategies should ever not perform, unless they get the stock picking wrong - which will happen time to time.

Thanks, it's certainly food for thought. I guess to cover the different scenarios, you could make a case for holding growth, quality and style-agnostic funds (plus value?) alongside a tracker.

Having attended the Alliance Trust AGM a few days ago, their thesis is that having a portfolio of ten managers enables you to have growth, quality, value and style-agnostic combined into one package. As ever, there's no right answer.
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Helen L on 01/05/2024(UTC)
Jesse M
Posted: 01 May 2024 12:58:16(UTC)
#37

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Decided not to jump the ship completely on RLGES as I hope that the portfolio is set for at least near term performance.

However, I have put in an order to reduce my holding to bring it into line/risk with my other actives funds, so down from 14% to 8.5%.

Cash 5.5% from sale (not sure where I will allocate but maybe XDEQ or XDEM or MMFs)

MMFs 21%
---
Dodge & Cox Worldwide Global Stock 8.7%
Fundsmith 10.0%
GQG Partners Global Equity 8.3%
Royal London Global Equity Select 8.5%
Vanguard Sustainable Global Equity 9.3%
Vanguard US Equity Index 15.0%
WisdomTree Glb Qual Div Acc GGRG 8.6%
---
Asia/EM specific OEICs (Artemis, GQG, Jupiter) 5.3%
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Mr Spock
Posted: 01 May 2024 15:59:02(UTC)
#38

Joined: 19/07/2019(UTC)
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Jesse M;304321 wrote:
Decided not to jump the ship completely on RLGES as I hope that the portfolio is set for at least near term performance.

However, I have put in an order to reduce my holding to bring it into line/risk with my other actives funds, so down from 14% to 8.5%.

Cash 5.5% from sale (not sure where I will allocate but maybe XDEQ or XDEM or MMFs)

MMFs 21%
---
Dodge & Cox Worldwide Global Stock 8.7%
Fundsmith 10.0%
GQG Partners Global Equity 8.3%
Royal London Global Equity Select 8.5%
Vanguard Sustainable Global Equity 9.3%
Vanguard US Equity Index 15.0%
WisdomTree Glb Qual Div Acc GGRG 8.6%
---
Asia/EM specific OEICs (Artemis, GQG, Jupiter) 5.3%


Jesse - would you consider the mix of GQG Partners Global Equity and Dodge & Cox Worldwide Global Stock being as potential replica of RLGES using a barbell approach?
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Jesse M on 01/05/2024(UTC)
Jesse M
Posted: 01 May 2024 17:03:15(UTC)
#39

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Mr Spock;304340 wrote:
[quote=Jesse M;304321]Decided not to jump the ship completely on RLGES as I hope that the portfolio is set for at least near term performance.



Jesse - would you consider the mix of GQG Partners Global Equity and Dodge & Cox Worldwide Global Stock being as potential replica of RLGES using a barbell approach?


That is a good question, and yes that has been my aim here with both funds added this year in barbell fashion.
However I definitely do not see them combined as a replacement for RLGES, totally separate entities.

GQG is a higher risk conviction bet, Morningstar has it as 84% in the growth camp with almost 10% in each Nvidia and Meta maybe not for the faint hearted. However as smg8 pointed out before somehow it captures only 38% of the downside last 3 years (no guarantees going forward). But I like the fact it isn't trying to find tomorrows companies preferring mostly large established ones that I know and can understand. Have a peek at the chart in link below that shows how they really move around in their portfolio, they do like to trade and will no doubt get it wrong sometimes.
It is a risk I'm willing to take with GQG for a reasonable % of my portfolio for the reasons above and to try something different.

https://moneyforums.city...t-M-Acc.aspx#post296188

https://moneyforums.city...-Equity.aspx#post298853

Interview (Rajiv is a bullish fund manager)
https://themarket.ch/eng...is-very-strong-ld.10605

D&C is definitely more of a value/blend fund. Also underweight US. And i like it, its been fairly consistent for a value fund, a steady plodder and after a slow start over a year has picked up above FS's style as the market has spread wider than mag 7. Low PE (12) tech 7%.

However mustn't forget that a simple tracker has been a pretty good place to be recently.

Dodge & Cox Worldwide Global Stock (Value)
Fundsmith (Quality)
GQG Partners Global Equity (Growth)
Royal London Global Equity Select (Blend?)
Vanguard Sustainable Global Equity (Blend)
Vanguard US Equity Index (US total market Tracker)
W.Tree Glb Qual Div GGRG (Thematic Etf)

I don't know if we are in another bull or not, if AI will continue to deliver, interest rates etc i can only decide how much risk i want to take now.

Certainly not recommended anything.
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J-san
Posted: 01 May 2024 19:34:10(UTC)
#40

Joined: 16/04/2013(UTC)
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thanks to the OP for posting.

it's been a cracking fund to hold last few years. It is my biggest holding.

Will sell and most probably recycle into global trusts I already hold:

Alliance
Brunner
JGGI

Funnily enough all these trusts have outperformed RLGES the last 6 months - maybe some blessing in disguise?

I don't see any reason to carry on holding the RL funds - the whole investment team is leaving.


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zone key
Posted: 01 May 2024 19:57:33(UTC)
#41

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J-san;304372 wrote:


I don't see any reason to carry on holding the RL funds - the whole investment team is leaving.




I agree and i sold my holdings today. The process is tied closely to the team, so when the team leaves there's nothing left worth keeping. No doubt the team has also been heavily distracted by their 'secret' plans for at least the last 12 months. So the fund might already be well past its peak. No good reason to hold this anymore.
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