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MarkSp
Posted: 29 July 2024 10:34:03(UTC)
#1

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
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There is an interesting play here.

Canada will open a new LNG facility in Q4 this year which will take 10-15% of Canadas Gas supply and allow export to world markets

That will benefit I3 as Canadas price and its export price to US (Where else can they sell it to?) has been dire.

DEC has to compete with the dirt cheap gas being piped from Canada so....reduced flows from Canada will increase the US gas prices

Might be worth a small dabble.

I currently hold 1350 DEC - 850 shares are "free from trading" so, I am about 1350 up + 7 dividends or, I am very up indeed depending on how you account for the trade shares

I have no holding in I3
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Phil 2 on 29/07/2024(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 29 July 2024 10:47:31(UTC)
#2

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676
DEC …With such massive swings from 12 month highs and lows how do you value the Company and decide to-day it’s a buy/sell or hold .

It appears to be gambling and hence I will stick to low risk term investments where they can be accessed daily with some accuracy. Good Luck …
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Johan De Silva
Posted: 29 July 2024 10:50:10(UTC)
#6

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,412
I3 Energy could be a nice contrarian bet, but is it going to be increasing earnings growth significantly enough? From what I recall I3 Energy had to take out an expensive loan during a time when others had been de-leveraging. They had been paying out too much as a dividend and that was clear to see and by the time I sold, I had to take a loss and then buy something with the opposite numbers and that was AXL that was able to compound earnings and have a strong balance sheet. Thats where the majority of my O&G sits. AET would be another but I am not invested there. All these are Canadian companies with additional listings in the UK.

I do wonder if the ability to export will result in higher gas prices for Canadians. I would be interested, but the numbers has to work and how long do we have to wait beyond Q4 before we see higher prices? The wind does not blow in Canada apparently so gas is needed.
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Raj K
Posted: 29 July 2024 11:07:48(UTC)
#3

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
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Big boy;313616 wrote:
DEC …With such massive swings from 12 month highs and lows how do you value the Company and decide to-day it’s a buy/sell or hold .

It appears to be gambling and hence I will stick to low risk term investments where they can be accessed daily with some accuracy. Good Luck …


You normally value a company by understanding its fundamentals.

parameters that allow you to guage its quality, return on equity , margins, predicatability etc
parameters that allow you to guage its financial strength , debt etc
parameters that allow you to form a valuation, free cash flow, earnings growth, book values

In the abscense of doing any analysis then it is considered gambling.
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Big boy on 29/07/2024(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 29 July 2024 11:34:48(UTC)
#4

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676
Raj K;313621 wrote:
Big boy;313616 wrote:
DEC …With such massive swings from 12 month highs and lows how do you value the Company and decide to-day it’s a buy/sell or hold .

It appears to be gambling and hence I will stick to low risk term investments where they can be accessed daily with some accuracy. Good Luck …


You normally value a company by understanding its fundamentals.

parameters that allow you to guage its quality, return on equity , margins, predicatability etc
parameters that allow you to guage its financial strength , debt etc
parameters that allow you to form a valuation, free cash flow, earnings growth, book values

In the abscense of doing any analysis then it is considered gambling.


So you think you are better at doing the above than all the other Investors….congratulations..

With respect I do understand how Cos are evaluated as I have been involved in the Industry for decades.

When you have done the above ( and much more) you then need to access the rest of the industry/sector to decide which is the cheapest stock in the sector and this is why you have sector experts whom I can never compete with.

Some Members may have that ability but I don’t. Clearly you want the best and cheapest rated Company.

I have found it’s easy to use the skill of the combined knowledge which again with respect I prefer to your ability.

However I have found once you and all the other investors have bought (say 99%) it tends to be the right time to sell. ........remember once you are all in based on your "due diligence" the next order is likely to be a sale as stocks hits highs...
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Raj K
Posted: 29 July 2024 11:52:36(UTC)
#7

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
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Not me personally, but those that understand the particular industry DEC is in and have a long term mindset can filter throught the short term noise and sentiment of the global investors and see the bigger picture (if there is one for DEC, again not familiar with this comany)

However Im not sure how you can value a company (indivdual stock) without looking at any basic metrics as it appears you do? such as how much cash its producing compared to how much your bing asked to pay for it.

Anyway i better not derail this thread.....apologies to OP
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Phil 2 on 29/07/2024(UTC), Big boy on 29/07/2024(UTC), John Bran on 05/08/2024(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 29 July 2024 12:09:04(UTC)
#5

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
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Big boy;313625 wrote:
Raj K;313621 wrote:
Big boy;313616 wrote:
DEC …With such massive swings from 12 month highs and lows how do you value the Company and decide to-day it’s a buy/sell or hold .

It appears to be gambling and hence I will stick to low risk term investments where they can be accessed daily with some accuracy. Good Luck …


You normally value a company by understanding its fundamentals.

parameters that allow you to guage its quality, return on equity , margins, predicatability etc
parameters that allow you to guage its financial strength , debt etc
parameters that allow you to form a valuation, free cash flow, earnings growth, book values

In the abscense of doing any analysis then it is considered gambling.


So you think you are better at doing the above than all the other Investors….congratulations..

With respect I do understand how Cos are evaluated as I have been involved in the Industry for decades.

When you have done the above ( and much more) you then need to access the rest of the industry/sector to decide which is the cheapest stock in the sector and this is why you have sector experts whom I can never compete with.

Some Members may have that ability but I don’t. Clearly you want the best and cheapest rated Company.

I have found it’s easy to use the skill of the combined knowledge which again with respect I prefer to your ability.

However I have found once you and all the other investors have bought (say 99%) it tends to be the right time to sell. ........remember once you are all in based on your "due diligence" the next order is likely to be a sale as stocks hits highs...


DEC share price has now tanked 3 times all on the basis of different actors rehashing the same pretty poor piece of "research" that read like something from the Daily Star. You have much more faith in the honesty and diligence of "Mr Market", I would have thought that with all your years of experience you would have expected what has happened as the LSE volumes have dried up and the short sellers have moved in.

Volatility is the word when US holders are buying and the rapidly diminishing number of UK holders and shorters are selling/pushing the SP down.
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Big boy on 29/07/2024(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 29 July 2024 12:09:48(UTC)
#8

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676
Raj K;313629 wrote:
Not me personally, but those that understand the particular industry DEC is in and have a long term mindset can filter throught the short term noise and sentiment of the global investors and see the bigger picture (if there is one for DEC, again not familiar with this comany)

However Im not sure how you can value a company (indivdual stock) without looking at any basic metrics as it appears you do? such as how much cash its producing compared to how much your bing asked to pay for it.

Anyway i better not derail this thread.....apologies to OP


As you know I have admitted that I cant make a judgement on individual Companies and hence I use some of the leading Global Experts to make all those decision for me...

I totally trust them 100% and never prejudge any of their holdings as again I don't have their expertise, skills and knowledge. I appreciate some Members do and they have that right which I am fine with.

This is why I invest only in IT/ICs where generally the Managers are kept under review by the Boards.

Thank you for your interest and hopefully we have all made some progress with our understanding of the market process..

As you say let's move on unless someone else has any comments.

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Raj K on 29/07/2024(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 29 July 2024 12:19:57(UTC)
#9

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676
Thank you MarkSp for your comments ...as you say all speculation and gambling on what is happening. Not sure any/much "due diligence" of value and valuation can be found so not sure why I should be trading this stock...

Must admit I prefer to deal in straight facts either cheap, dear etc. based on to-days valuations rather than the old crystal ball which many investors use...
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MarkSp
Posted: 29 July 2024 16:02:35(UTC)
#10

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,176

Thanks: 282 times
Was thanked: 5797 time(s) in 1715 post(s)
Big boy;313635 wrote:
Thank you MarkSp for your comments ...as you say all speculation and gambling on what is happening. Not sure any/much "due diligence" of value and valuation can be found so not sure why I should be trading this stock...

Must admit I prefer to deal in straight facts either cheap, dear etc. based on to-days valuations rather than the old crystal ball which many investors use...


i can't really comment on I3 as I haven't spent the time on it. DEC has the advantage that it has made a number of detailed responses to shorters and to the US Congress as well as State Legislatures that have been filmed. They are a hard read and an excruciating watch but there is a lot of information in them.

We don't share the same view on professionals. I lost my faith when they were investing in Langbar when it was an obvious and screaming fraud. There were also famous names in Carillion when Accountancy 101 showed that they were bust. Literally a quick scan of the cash flow statement and the cash conversion rate showed what they were doing.

I guess my most recent was Home REIT where a few hours on Companies House chasing names between filings showed that the bidder didn't have a pot to piss in and was heavily related to the sellers and looking at Zoopla and Land Reg showed the truth of the Short Report....was is shadowfall? I can't remember.
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Big boy on 29/07/2024(UTC), Newbie on 24/08/2024(UTC)
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