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Tim Hale Global Tilted Portfolio 60 & 80
Cm258
Posted: 01 March 2025 09:08:04(UTC)
#50

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Aminatidi;336131 wrote:
Not sure if if this is a life changing sum but are you going to just let it run or are you feeling tempted to tinker around the edges yet?


My ISA following Tim Hales 60 is £124k now. Life changing for me, yes.

My SIPP is a tad over £300k now, also technically life changing, but I'm 36 so plenty of time left.

I'll be honest, I keep looking at the Trustnet Chart Tool and thinking for my ISA, why not just move to Lloyds Share Dealing (£40 a year) and split the ~£120k 4 ways between:

- Vanguard LifeStrategy 60
- HSBC Global Strategy Balanced
- VT AJ Bell Balanced
- Fidelity Multi-Asset Allocator Growth

And move the SIPP to ii (£155 a year) and split 4 ways between:

- Vanguard LifeStrategy 80
- HSBC Global Strategy Dynamic
- VT AJ Bell Moderately Adventurous
- Fidelity Multi-Asset Allocator Adventurous

And that way I've got 4 Multi-Asset funds in each portfolio:

- 2 use passive products with fixed asset allocations (Vanguard and Fidelity)
- 2 use passive products but with actively managed asset allocations and tilts (HSBC and AJ Bell)

All 4 are very cheap.

I'm a little bit conflicted. But then when I step away, my current portfolios are full of intermediate global government bonds which will offer some crash protection should there be a crash, and the returns look favourable for the first time in a long while (4%+ yields). And there are tilts to both value and small caps, should the Mag 7 come tumbling down and things change in terms of the market cap weighted index. And there is property which adds some diversification, and in my ISA I have short dated inflation linked global government bonds. These are not bad portfolios I don't think.

It's a difficult one, that's for sure! But I will continue with the Tim Hales portfolios.
3 users thanked Cm258 for this post.
AlanT on 02/03/2025(UTC), Peanuts on 02/03/2025(UTC), Aminatidi on 02/03/2025(UTC)
Peanuts
Posted: 02 March 2025 08:15:53(UTC)
#51

Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
Posts: 1,476

Cm258;336136 wrote:


My SIPP is a tad over £300k now, also technically life changing, but I'm 36 so plenty of time left.


I wish my SIPP was 300k at 36yrs old so well done! None of my business but any reason why you hold bonds in it and not just 100% equity? Hindsight but if I could rewind back the clock I would have been 100% low-cost global tracker and that's it.
Cm258
Posted: 02 March 2025 10:26:10(UTC)
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Peanuts;336198 wrote:
Cm258;336136 wrote:


My SIPP is a tad over £300k now, also technically life changing, but I'm 36 so plenty of time left.


I wish my SIPP was 300k at 36yrs old so well done! None of my business but any reason why you hold bonds in it and not just 100% equity? Hindsight but if I could rewind back the clock I would have been 100% low-cost global tracker and that's it.


Thanks! Yes, I've really upped my contributions in the last few years as my salary has increased. I figure I may as well take advantage of this period, as who knows if I'll always be earning this much!

I figure a 20% allocation to bonds will help with volatility, and the outlook of bond returns (intermediate global government bonds) is much more positive than a few years ago.
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Peanuts on 02/03/2025(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 02 March 2025 10:35:25(UTC)
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I think that's probably sensible.

The whole 100% equities thing looks sooooo easy on a spreadsheet.

Not so sure in the heat of the moment if you login to your platform to add your monthly £2K and your account shows £300K when a couple of months ago it was showing £500K.

You're not exactly "buying the dip" at that point are you you're just a passenger hoping it goes back up in a timeframe you're comfortable with.

Stomach v Spreadsheet I guess 😊
3 users thanked Aminatidi for this post.
Cm258 on 02/03/2025(UTC), Peanuts on 02/03/2025(UTC), AlanT on 02/03/2025(UTC)
Cm258
Posted: 02 March 2025 10:49:34(UTC)
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Aminatidi;336231 wrote:
I think that's probably sensible.

The whole 100% equities thing looks sooooo easy on a spreadsheet.

Not so sure in the heat of the moment if you login to your platform to add your monthly £2K and your account shows £300K when a couple of months ago it was showing £500K.

You're not exactly "buying the dip" at that point are you you're just a passenger hoping it goes back up in a timeframe you're comfortable with.

Stomach v Spreadsheet I guess 😊


It's quite unsettling the advice given to so many (on social media, not just here) to go 100% equities. Oh you've got 5+ years, go 100% equity, you can ride out the volatility etc. A lot easier said than done. A lot easier when we have had so few corrections (10% drops) in the last few years, let alone a full blown crash (30% drop).

Anyway, I am going to continue with the Tim Hale portfolios in both ISA and SIPP. One consideration is that in the book, Tim suggest short duration government bonds only. Something like IGLS which is 0-5 year Gilt ETF. That would certainly help with volatility, and maybe something worth considering for my ISA whilst I leave my SIPP as is, with intermediate bonds.
1 user thanked Cm258 for this post.
Wave Action on 02/03/2025(UTC)
Peanuts
Posted: 02 March 2025 16:30:53(UTC)
#55

Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
Posts: 1,476

Aminatidi;336231 wrote:


Not so sure in the heat of the moment if you login to your platform to add your monthly £2K and your account shows £300K when a couple of months ago it was showing £500K.

You're not exactly "buying the dip" at that point are you you're just a passenger hoping it goes back up in a timeframe you're comfortable with.



DCA'ing during a 40% market crash is a gift. I agree with your comment re timeframe but at 36yrs old Cm258 needed lose too much sleep.
Cm258
Posted: 02 March 2025 17:26:17(UTC)
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Peanuts;336254 wrote:
Aminatidi;336231 wrote:


Not so sure in the heat of the moment if you login to your platform to add your monthly £2K and your account shows £300K when a couple of months ago it was showing £500K.

You're not exactly "buying the dip" at that point are you you're just a passenger hoping it goes back up in a timeframe you're comfortable with.



DCA'ing during a 40% market crash is a gift. I agree with your comment re timeframe but at 36yrs old Cm258 needed lose too much sleep.


I mean for my pension, a big correction like that would be a gift. I'm piling in nearly £3,500 a month, so it would be ideal buying up units at 40% down from peak.

Any views on short vs intermediate duration government bonds? I feel ditching the intermediate now, of all times, is poor timing... Rates could be cut, we might see a recession, the stock market looks frothy.... All scenarios where slightly longer duration does better...
Peanuts
Posted: 02 March 2025 17:37:01(UTC)
#61

Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
Posts: 1,476

Cm258;336258 wrote:


Any views on short vs intermediate duration government bonds? I feel ditching the intermediate now, of all times, is poor timing... Rates could be cut, we might see a recession, the stock market looks frothy.... All scenarios where slightly longer duration does better...


Others on here know better than me but if you are holding them currently in a SIPP with over 20yrs until you can access them.. I don't think it really matters. There's an argument for all durations - including long - which if rates are cut (especially in the scenario of a recession) - would probably do better from a capital appreciation basis. Personally I wouldn't be holding bonds in your case, I would probably look at other asset classes (which again others on here are much better informed on than me). If they are just a hedge on an equity drawdown because you are thinking equity valuations are expensive and it has been a long time since the last (proper) recession then I would lean to MMF's or short duration. Then I would switch them into equity *if* equity drops say -20% or more.
ben ski
Posted: 02 March 2025 17:39:43(UTC)
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Cm258;336258 wrote:
Peanuts;336254 wrote:
Aminatidi;336231 wrote:


Not so sure in the heat of the moment if you login to your platform to add your monthly £2K and your account shows £300K when a couple of months ago it was showing £500K.

You're not exactly "buying the dip" at that point are you you're just a passenger hoping it goes back up in a timeframe you're comfortable with.



DCA'ing during a 40% market crash is a gift. I agree with your comment re timeframe but at 36yrs old Cm258 needed lose too much sleep.


I mean for my pension, a big correction like that would be a gift. I'm piling in nearly £3,500 a month, so it would be ideal buying up units at 40% down from peak.

Any views on short vs intermediate duration government bonds? I feel ditching the intermediate now, of all times, is poor timing... Rates could be cut, we might see a recession, the stock market looks frothy.... All scenarios where slightly longer duration does better...


Intermediate tends to diversify stocks better. You're also securing decent nominal yields for quite a few years – if we were back to sub-inflation yields in 5 years, we'd all be back in this situation where bonds don't really make sense.

My own preference would be a barbell of short-term inflation-linked bonds, and longer-duration inflation-linked. So if you had 10% in each, you'd automatically be rebalancing out of the one that held up better, depending on what's happening.

With global debt where it is, there is an argument you shouldn't be holding much of it. Inflation-linked bonds kind of ticks the box as a real asset, so I'd rather build a base of them, which they're on yields that guarantee growing your capital after inflation.

1 user thanked ben ski for this post.
Cm258 on 02/03/2025(UTC)
Cm258
Posted: 02 March 2025 18:32:10(UTC)
#58

Joined: 30/07/2022(UTC)
Posts: 458

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ben ski;336260 wrote:
Cm258;336258 wrote:
Peanuts;336254 wrote:
Aminatidi;336231 wrote:


Not so sure in the heat of the moment if you login to your platform to add your monthly £2K and your account shows £300K when a couple of months ago it was showing £500K.

You're not exactly "buying the dip" at that point are you you're just a passenger hoping it goes back up in a timeframe you're comfortable with.



DCA'ing during a 40% market crash is a gift. I agree with your comment re timeframe but at 36yrs old Cm258 needed lose too much sleep.


I mean for my pension, a big correction like that would be a gift. I'm piling in nearly £3,500 a month, so it would be ideal buying up units at 40% down from peak.

Any views on short vs intermediate duration government bonds? I feel ditching the intermediate now, of all times, is poor timing... Rates could be cut, we might see a recession, the stock market looks frothy.... All scenarios where slightly longer duration does better...


Intermediate tends to diversify stocks better. You're also securing decent nominal yields for quite a few years – if we were back to sub-inflation yields in 5 years, we'd all be back in this situation where bonds don't really make sense.

My own preference would be a barbell of short-term inflation-linked bonds, and longer-duration inflation-linked. So if you had 10% in each, you'd automatically be rebalancing out of the one that held up better, depending on what's happening.

With global debt where it is, there is an argument you shouldn't be holding much of it. Inflation-linked bonds kind of ticks the box as a real asset, so I'd rather build a base of them, which they're on yields that guarantee growing your capital after inflation.



Thanks ben ski

Tim Hale suggests 50:50 short duration conventional gilts and short duration index linked gilts. What's your view on that pairing as the 'defensive' mix?

A part of me thinks I ought to follow this model properly and ditch IGLT And IGLH in favour of IGLS!
1 user thanked Cm258 for this post.
ben ski on 02/03/2025(UTC)
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