Rookie, I agree it's never that simple. As PI's if we put enough time and patience not buying in early but at the right time and the right stock it can be done and thankfully I am on +31% gains YTD after a flat if positive year before with the same strategies. What RICA set out in that flow chart was simply historical based on hiking cycles and not there view... They are flat and I would not buy them again after they went down for my in-laws account. But history does not lie. What we have here in RIO is a bigger mining cycle and inevitably large stock price rises.

A 0.25 percentage rate cut should indicate a soft landing that should raise everything and what's fallen the most should recover the most. 0.5 percent cut would favour defensives. We will know on the 17-18th but markets may move sooner. My own resource play is in O&G (currently AET) but I am tempted by RIO.

We are both contrarian investors but "fancy words"? I am just trying to help in the search of a bit of outperformance. What's your view on RIO and contribution to the OP?

For sure, there's always opportunities in the commodity cycle. I prefer to capture the ups and downs through something like BRWM though. There's an income and growth opportunity here with an extra dose of commodities volatility thrown in.

I have a small £5k holding in Rio and a £15k slug in BRWM … a mistimed punt and a long-termer. Both are down so have been rebalancing the latter and will probably add to RIO during its “dividend gap” if it continues to drift.

Rio’s 5 year chart is interesting (I’m not a Chartist btw, so no nonsense about support levels and gaps!) but visually, excluding Covid and recovery 4 years ago, there’s a neat set of bumps between 4500 and 6000 (VERY roughly). Has to be a punt at these 4500 levels I would say … to the patient 🧐