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Johan De Silva
Posted: 17 October 2024 12:19:43(UTC)
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Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
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A potential technology recovery play, with declining debt (now £695m, net is £565) and a market capitalisation of just £370m.

It is up 70% from low, but at low valuations, better and better operational performance, I can see a RR type recovery here to double and many other examples.

What are your views?
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Sheerman on 17/10/2024(UTC)
NoMoreKickingCans
Posted: 17 October 2024 18:57:47(UTC)
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Joined: 26/02/2012(UTC)
Posts: 4,470
Looks like a very complicated beast, non trivial to understand. I guess it could be a good recovery play and presumably a lot must depend on the CEO's ability to deliver a big turnaround.
I am more interested in MARS, SAGA, and MCG as recovery plays. Seemingly relatively simple to understand as businesses and I think straightforward to understand what went wrong and a possible recovery pathway. All these recovery situations seem to offer lots of nerve jangling volatility, including shorters coming in, and potentially a multi-year grind back from the brink (or not). Very easy to get whipsawed every which way.

We don't hear a lot about the madness of individual stock stories here. Very large mental cajones and limitless patience required it seems.
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Chris Ould
Posted: 17 October 2024 19:40:19(UTC)
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Joined: 13/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 548
JD, think everyones going to have a different view on this companys direction...personally, tip-toed in wearing my patient hat. Rockwood Strategic's views may add a bit more colour to that rather limited assesment.
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Tony Peterson
Posted: 17 October 2024 19:49:02(UTC)
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Private Eye always refers to this outsourcing company as Crapita.

I have some respect for Ian Hislop's judgement. So this is not one for me.
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Frank Spencer on 17/10/2024(UTC), Ian Eccles on 18/10/2024(UTC), bearcub on 18/12/2024(UTC)
Chris Ould
Posted: 17 October 2024 20:09:48(UTC)
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Joined: 13/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 548
...hence the current price Tony! (lets hope RIO drops to 4500 again, that was nice).
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Johan De Silva
Posted: 17 October 2024 21:14:02(UTC)
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Thanks, let's hope 'Crapita' can change! MARS, SAGA, and MCG are all similar. SAGA checks more boxes on the YoY balance sheet and is growing revenues. SAGA currently experiencing a short-term 30% rise that looks like a spike. SAGA used to have a market cap bigger than The AA when it split by the owners in IPOs and was loaded with debt. But The AA was bought out again by private equity and is now worth double what they bought it for. But that's just it, if any of these companies were any good, they too should have been bought out by private equity.

I bought a small amount of CPI today as a punt and will see if SAGA comes down from its "spike".
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Chris Ould
Posted: 18 December 2024 17:53:56(UTC)
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Joined: 13/01/2014(UTC)
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...small addition on price fall.
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Johan De Silva on 23/12/2024(UTC)
Johan De Silva
Posted: 23 December 2024 09:22:53(UTC)
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No growth in the UK economy for the last few months.

Hold a very small amount here. Net Debt around 520m and should reduce again next year and a market cap of just £250m I just seems massive upside. Seen it so many times when valuations are down here and debt not in the billions but manageable.

Another tactical nibble with a view to add.
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Big boy on 23/12/2024(UTC)
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