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Gilt Yields at 26 year highs
NoMoreKickingCans
Posted: 06 November 2024 12:40:29(UTC)
#1

Joined: 26/02/2012(UTC)
Posts: 4,470

Gilts continue to plummet as we become a third world country under this Labour administration.

The yield on 20 year gilts is now at 5.05%, it has not been significantly higher than this since 1998.

IMO this spells disaster for the country. The bond market is saying Britain is bust and the only way we can pay our debts is by devaluing the pound by printing money.

Any stock market blip seems likely to be short lived as we are plunged into recession and a bunch of those companies that BEG have identified as struggling under debt - much of it caused by covid insanity - go under.

Explain to me why I am wrong ?
Bob Brook
Posted: 06 November 2024 12:43:14(UTC)
#2

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Why does a 5.05% yield signify we are a 3rd world country now but it didnt 26 years ago?
2 users thanked Bob Brook for this post.
SF100 on 06/11/2024(UTC), Thrugelmir on 06/11/2024(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 06 November 2024 12:45:53(UTC)
#4

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NoMoreKickingCans;324766 wrote:
Gilts continue to plummet as we become a third world country under this Labour administration.

The yield on 20 year gilts is now at 5.05%, it has not been significantly higher than this since 1998.

IMO this spells disaster for the country. The bond market is saying Britain is bust and the only way we can pay our debts is by devaluing the pound by printing money.

Any stock market blip seems likely to be short lived as we are plunged into recession and a bunch of those companies that BEG have identified as struggling under debt - much of it caused by covid insanity - go under.

Explain to me why I am wrong ?


It is you that needs to explain why you are right. None of what you say is even remotely considered as analysis.

Can I just say you come across as extremely deluded! Your username checks out.
3 users thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
SF100 on 06/11/2024(UTC), Thrugelmir on 06/11/2024(UTC), The Penguin on 07/11/2024(UTC)
NoMoreKickingCans
Posted: 06 November 2024 18:04:33(UTC)
#3

Joined: 26/02/2012(UTC)
Posts: 4,470

Bob Brook;324767 wrote:
Why does a 5.05% yield signify we are a 3rd world country now but it didnt 26 years ago?

We have a national debt of £2.7 Trillion and are currently making interest payments of £71 billion annually, (£105 billion in 24-25) as that debt matures and is renewed at higher rates then at say 5% we will be paying £135 billion annually in debt interest. But every year the budget deficit means the debt grows larger still. The government spends £ 1.2 trillion annually with a deficit this year of 10%. In 24-25 the government will take 45% of national income. The country also has some £9 trillion of further liabilities for golden ticket public sector pensions.

We must now pay higher interest rates on our debt than all 'majors' except Australia(just), India, South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and Turkey.

We have I think the highest electricity prices in the world now, the prospect of little fall in BoE interest rates, a private sector still saddled with covid debt, no growth in GDP per head, an influx of immigrants we cannot afford to house and give free public services. We cannot make steel, and depend on imports for our energy.

This situation wasn't the case 26 years ago. Sounds pretty 3rd world to me - not really the right term perhaps - but our decay is evident in our sinking financial credit rating.
10 users thanked NoMoreKickingCans for this post.
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Sara G
Posted: 06 November 2024 18:35:37(UTC)
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I don't know about the UK being a third world country - that's a (perfectly valid) qualitative assessment from your perspective as a resident and taxpayer. In terms of our energy and transport infrastructure, and our health system, for example, I can see your point.

But in terms of our credit rating and the impact of rising Gilt yields, while I think there is some basis for concern (higher interest rates means more pressure on businesses at a time of increasing taxation and higher costs), a lot will depend on what happens globally. Bond investors will be looking at our relative attractiveness to other countries, and any inflationary spending sprees elsewhere might make the UK look like the least dirty shirt - or one of them.

Also, thus far at least, there has never been any question of the UK defaulting on its debts, however massive the interest bill. If we were truly a third world country in the traditional sense, investors might have worries about getting their money back, which I don't think applies. Our legal frameworks are pretty robust, meaning that property rights are too. It may feel like the current government is picking our pockets and making us poorer, but bond investors won't be impacted by all that.

Personally, I tend to think of rising Gilt yields as evidence of the checks and balances in place in the financial system - governments can't do anything too crazy without consequences. Ask me again if they go too much higher though!
9 users thanked Sara G for this post.
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Keith Cobby
Posted: 06 November 2024 19:01:52(UTC)
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I'm in general agreement with NMKC, the debt trajectory looks bad (but so does the US, France). We are ex-growth, GDP per head is falling as we import low skilled immigrants and their dependents, and more highly skilled move abroad for friendlier tax climes. The tax take is the highest for decades and is being spent on public services which are hardly the envy of the world. Housing is scarce and expensive and energy is expensive also. Successive governments have smothered our animal spirits and half the population is living on the excessively taxed other half. We seem to be continually in a period of managed decline, where is the growth to come from?
3 users thanked Keith Cobby for this post.
Guest on 06/11/2024(UTC), stephen_s on 06/11/2024(UTC), Steve U on 07/11/2024(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 06 November 2024 19:05:48(UTC)
#8

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Sara G;324842 wrote:
Also, thus far at least, there has never been any question of the UK defaulting on its debts, however massive the interest bill.

Well they did move the goalposts on index-linked gilts from RPI to CPI, beyond 2030.
Who says they are not forward-thinking.
What next...
3 users thanked SF100 for this post.
Jay P on 06/11/2024(UTC), lenahan on 06/11/2024(UTC), Guest on 09/11/2024(UTC)
Hilda Ogden
Posted: 06 November 2024 19:09:01(UTC)
#10

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Keith Cobby;324846 wrote:
I'm in general agreement with NMKC, the debt trajectory looks bad (but so does the US, France). We are ex-growth, GDP per head is falling as we import low skilled immigrants and their dependents, and more highly skilled move abroad for friendlier tax climes. The tax take is the highest for decades and is being spent on public services which are hardly the envy of the world. Housing is scarce and expensive and energy is expensive also. Successive governments have smothered our animal spirits and half the population is living on the excessively taxed other half. We seem to be continually in a period of managed decline, where is the growth to come from?

A good question to which nobody appears to have a good answer. The current administration promised economic growth but beyond wishing it to happen they don't seem to have a clue. Very worrying. Having travelled extensively in Asia, I can say that the UK certainly now feels a lot more 3rd world than some so called 3rd world countries do. In some aspects that is.
4 users thanked Hilda Ogden for this post.
Jay P on 06/11/2024(UTC), Guest on 06/11/2024(UTC), stephen_s on 06/11/2024(UTC), Keith Cobby on 07/11/2024(UTC)
Jed Mires
Posted: 06 November 2024 19:18:16(UTC)
#12

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Gilts are taking their cue from todays biggest sell off in US Treasuries for 5 years. US markets are pricing in tax cuts and growth policies from Trump, leading to higher inflation. As usual its all about what happens in the US.
5 users thanked Jed Mires for this post.
SF100 on 06/11/2024(UTC), Thrugelmir on 06/11/2024(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 06/11/2024(UTC), lenahan on 06/11/2024(UTC), Special Kloud on 11/11/2024(UTC)
Rob B
Posted: 06 November 2024 19:46:48(UTC)
#18

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In my experience (having worked in numerous overseas countries) the average British worker (say NHS or police or construction) is no less efficient in carrying out their core shift responsibilities than a European, American, or Asian worker.

What sets them apart is the inane amount of bollocks they need to complete during their shift. The 'endless paperwork'. The 'endless performance indicator' measuring. The 'don't upset a neighbour at any cost'. This permeates through everything. From government bureaucracy to endless EDI training sessions. Don't get my wrong. Everything is important but in sensible measures. Quality, safety, compliance, contemporaneous records, and so on. Why does everything take so much longer in this country?

20 years ago I did a postgraduate and remember an NHS Manager. Bottle Tipex = £1 and 50% effective before drying out. Mouse Tipex = £1.10 and 100% effective. You know what the procurers bought!

For years, I've argued we waste so much time in endless meetings and chatting the most absurd shite. Our culture says 'meetings = importance and status'. You ask someone to meet and they say 'OK. In 4 weeks I've got a 30 min gap'. My meetings are 45 mins max. Outcome driven. Wanna chat? Not in my meeting!

This 'lack of productivity' is what the next few governments need to tackle. In the private sector I bill my clients via a timesheet that accounts for every hour of work I do for them. Imagine Whitehall and the corridors of power doing this! Just might help tackle our debt levels by not wasting so much taxpayers money (and me and you stumping up for it).
10 users thanked Rob B for this post.
Newbie on 06/11/2024(UTC), Jay P on 06/11/2024(UTC), Keith Cobby on 06/11/2024(UTC), SF100 on 06/11/2024(UTC), stephen_s on 06/11/2024(UTC), Tim D on 07/11/2024(UTC), Martina on 07/11/2024(UTC), Sheerman on 07/11/2024(UTC), COYS54 on 11/11/2024(UTC), Jonathan7 on 12/11/2024(UTC)
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