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REFORM UK SURGE INTO THE LEAD...
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 30 January 2025 18:04:01(UTC)
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Guest on 31/01/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 30 January 2025 18:26:56(UTC)
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Interesting, and not surprising.

But how that translates to seats isn't shown.

I'd suspect it would be hung Parliament territory. Still work to do to finally bury the Tory party....

The 'Local elections cancelled' story seems to have disappeared. We know 16 councils have applied for cancellation, but there seems to be no informations about when we will know if the government has agreed to any.

You'd think some enterprising journalist would be asking such a question....
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Robin B on 30/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 31/01/2025(UTC), Suburban Lesley on 31/01/2025(UTC)
Hilda Ogden
Posted: 30 January 2025 19:02:37(UTC)
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Labour will win again in 2029. 100% . The only thing that can change that outcome is if Farage and the Tory party finally realise that without an agreement not to stand against each other, Labour will go through the middle. A second term on a greatly reduced majority. But for sure, a 2nd term.
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Newbie on 30/01/2025(UTC), Johan De Silva on 30/01/2025(UTC), Peter59 on 31/01/2025(UTC)
Neminem Laedit
Posted: 30 January 2025 19:08:56(UTC)
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Hilda Ogden;332661 wrote:
Labour will win again in 2029. 100% . The only thing that can change that outcome is if Farage and the Tory party finally realise that without an agreement not to stand against each other, Labour will go through the middle. A second term on a greatly reduced majority. But for sure, a 2nd term.


Disagree. (speaking as a psephologist who has predicted almost every election, both here and abroad, correctly for the past 20 years. I won £50k on Trump in 2016, for example)

While Labour has benefited from FPTP, there is a once in a century tectonic shift occurring before our eyes.

Both cheeks of the Uniparty are getting whipped by the long-suffering voters in a way never seen before.

The Big Mo is with Reform, and if people see they can win, they will win - possibly bigly...
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Jay P on 30/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 31/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 31/01/2025(UTC), Chalky W on 31/01/2025(UTC), Suburban Lesley on 31/01/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 30 January 2025 20:02:01(UTC)
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Hilda Ogden;332661 wrote:
Labour will win again in 2029. 100% . The only thing that can change that outcome is if Farage and the Tory party finally realise that without an agreement not to stand against each other, Labour will go through the middle. A second term on a greatly reduced majority. But for sure, a 2nd term.


I can only assume you don't believe this data....

Labour will equally be split by Lib-Dumbs and Greenies.

Everything, of course, depends on how the votes are distributed geographically.

A big test will be in May of course. I think I can write the quotes already...

"Well of course it's just a protest vote mid-term. It's typical in a difficult economic situation that's not our fault"


That's of course, if we actually get May elections....
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Jay P on 30/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 31/01/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 30 January 2025 20:07:26(UTC)
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Hilda Ogden;332661 wrote:
Labour will win again in 2029. 100% . The only thing that can change that outcome is if Farage and the Tory party finally realise that without an agreement not to stand against each other, Labour will go through the middle. A second term on a greatly reduced majority. But for sure, a 2nd term.

I tend to agree with this.

Whilst there is a lot of noise around reform, I do not get the feeling that the UK public as a whole is quite ready for that specific type of politics which Reform are generally advocating in voting terms.

Rather, I get the impression that many are using Reform, as a means of venting out their frustration, which will not necessarily lead to a vote in the booths. I suspect it is only the noise made by the vocals which somewhat distorting the real intentions of the mass public.

Do not get me wrong, people are frustrated and certainly do not like what the last lot did, they are also not liking what the current lot are doing. A lot of this stems from lack of opportunities, jobs, growth and more specifically, inequalities, which is leading to every more frustration and people with nothing to do and nowhere to vent their anger.

The danger is that when such things do not improve, then we can end up with 1930's Germany and politicians / individuals start to grow the rhetoric around the extremes looking for a target.

Furthermore, many are disillusioned as they are failing to recognise any depth or breadth in either the Labour (whom some thought may have substance) and reform whom they simple see as Farage who delivered brexit but not the visible rewards that were promised.

In fact the visual seems to suggest that Rachel from accounting and her ilk are throwing themselves at everything (Chinese, Indian, Middle Eastern, Europeans etc) to at least get some results whereas Farage is busy with Trump alone.

So it may well end up being - better the devil we know which will only push the can further down the road.
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Peter59 on 31/01/2025(UTC)
Robin B
Posted: 30 January 2025 20:27:20(UTC)
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Neminem Laedit;332662 wrote:
Hilda Ogden;332661 wrote:
Labour will win again in 2029. 100% . The only thing that can change that outcome is if Farage and the Tory party finally realise that without an agreement not to stand against each other, Labour will go through the middle. A second term on a greatly reduced majority. But for sure, a 2nd term.


Disagree.

While Labour has benefited from FPTP, there is a once in a century tectonic shift occurring before our eyes.

Both cheeks of the Uniparty are getting whipped by the long-suffering voters in a way never seen before.

The Big Mo is with Reform, and if people see they can win, they will win - possibly bigly...


I like your optimism and perhaps it will come to pass. I'd be glad if it does. And it has happened before with the demise of the old Liberal Party and emergence of Labour.

The pessimist in me fears the outcome described by Hilda.

Andrew's point about a hung parliament seems plausible as well.

Then again, maybe something else happens. You just never know with this electoral system - especially during unusual periods of time like these.

I suspect Labour will lose votes although their hard-core, fanatical NPC supporters will continue as usual. The absolute freakishness of the last general election result, in terms of low vote share translating into a massive landslide, speaks volumes.

I think it's fair to say that a partnership between Reform and Tories would give us a more predictable, probably right-leaning outcome. Particularly if they merge. A possible problem with a mere pact, where one stands down in each constituency, is that a lot of people engage in the odd behaviour of voting Lib Dem, believing they are some kind of neutral alternative, when they are anything but. More like the third cheek of the Uniparty arse. But it could work.

The problem with a merger is that you have the sclerotic Tory party continuing to exist and possibly infecting Reform, where it would be nice if it could just disappear forever. Reform would need to be the stronger partner and root out all Cameron-era, lib dumb stupidity. In fact, it goes back way before Cameron. I'd say they must root out all candidates who are pro EU, pro net zero, pro open borders... this would really entail completely deleting the Tory party structure and administration entirely. The Tories probably need to suffer another heavy defeat first before they will appreciate this.

Having said all of this, there is that nagging sense that the so called democracies are little more than a convoluted scam and waste of time. Doesn't matter which electoral system they have, the representative democracies have been producing the same elitist failure and garbage that most people don't want. The next few years will be a test of how well these systems really work, i.e translate the will of the majority into action.

Interesting times...
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Guest on 30/01/2025(UTC), Neminem Laedit on 30/01/2025(UTC), Hilda Ogden on 30/01/2025(UTC), jeffian on 30/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 31/01/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 30 January 2025 20:52:56(UTC)
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Newbie;332668 wrote:


So it may well end up being - better the devil we know which will only push the can further down the road.


When people vote for the same old crap.
They get the same old crap.
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Neminem Laedit on 31/01/2025(UTC), Suburban Lesley on 31/01/2025(UTC)
Neminem Laedit
Posted: 30 January 2025 21:03:51(UTC)
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Yes, at the moment it suggests a (very) hung parliament. But of course, if Reform put on just a few extra points, the exaggerative feature of FPTP quickly turns that into a majority.

Courtesy of the respected Electoral Calculus site, which has been the most accurate seat forecaster for many years. (326 seats required for a majority. In practice about 320, due to Sinn Fein abstentions, the Speaker, etc.)

https://www.electoralcal...ne%29&boundary=2024





Reform would sweep large parts of Eastern England, the Midlands, Yorkshire, Wales and around Manchester...

Labour would be mostly reduced to the cities; London, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, etc.
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ANDREW FOSTER on 30/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 31/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 31/01/2025(UTC), OmegaMale on 31/01/2025(UTC), Special Kloud on 31/01/2025(UTC)
Hilda Ogden
Posted: 30 January 2025 21:10:10(UTC)
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.
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