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REFORM UK SURGE INTO THE LEAD...
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Laurence O'Brien
Posted: 30 January 2025 21:12:51(UTC)
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We’re six months into a Labour government which is already a miserable failure and which made no preparation for office despite having 14 years to do so. Listening to PMQs yesterday was a depressing experience with 2TK failing to answer any questions and prefacing all his responses with variations on '14 years of Tory misrule' even when the question came from one of his own brown nosers.

This means that the next election is almost certainly more than four years away and much can happen in that time. The Tories have no appetite to fix their issues as the party back benches are split between closet LibDums and a rump of MPs who are recognisably Tory. My observation of Reform is that there is a clear recognition of what they need to do in the next four years if they are to become a real force. Many people simply see them as a protest party without seeing the work that is being done outside the public gaze.

It’s clear that the Tories and Reform will have to come to some sort of accommodation if they are to seriously challenge Labour. Why shouldn’t it happen? It has gone unnoticed that in Germany yesterday, the CDU/CSU and AfD have combined to pass a vote on immigration in the Bundestag and that has never happened before. The Influx Limitation Act is due to be voted on on Friday and is likely to pass with support from AfD. Again I ask, why shouldn’t something similar happen here?
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 30 January 2025 21:15:38(UTC)
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Hilda Ogden;332677 wrote:
Just to remind folks...... there's another 4.5 years to go until the next election.


And Reform UK are already in pole position...
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 30 January 2025 21:19:08(UTC)
#14

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Laurence O'Brien;332678 wrote:
We’re six months into a Labour government which is already a miserable failure and which made no preparation for office despite having 14 years to do so. Listening to PMQs yesterday was a depressing experience with 2TK failing to answer any questions and prefacing all his responses with variations on '14 years of Tory misrule' even when the question came from one of his own brown nosers.

This means that the next election is almost certainly more than four years away and much can happen in that time. The Tories have no appetite to fix their issues as the party back benches are split between closet LibDums and a rump of MPs who are recognisably Tory. My observation of Reform is that there is a clear recognition of what they need to do in the next four years if they are to become a real force. Many people simply see them as a protest party without seeing the work that is being done outside the public gaze.

It’s clear that the Tories and Reform will have to come to some sort of accommodation if they are to seriously challenge Labour. Why shouldn’t it happen? It has gone unnoticed that in Germany yesterday, the CDU/CSU and AfD have combined to pass a vote on immigration in the Bundestag and that has never happened before. The Influx Limitation Act is due to be voted on on Friday and is likely to pass with support from AfD. Again I ask, why shouldn’t something similar happen here?


I take the view that Reform UK have to kill the Tories, not "come to some sort of accommodation".

Labour took this view in the 1920s, regarding the Liberals. The stupid Libs had nurtured Labour in their breast...
(and even propelled them into government in 1924, hoping they would fail, and the voters would then turn back to the Libs. Didn't happen...)
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 30 January 2025 22:55:54(UTC)
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The last time an insurgent party "broke the mold", and surged into the lead, was the SDP in late 1981...

So you might say, "and yes, they ended up on 6 seats (or 23 seats including the Libs) in the following General Election."

But two things are different this time:-

a) the Reform UK vote is significantly more UNevenly spread than the SDP/Lib vote, meaning FPTP treats them better as they rise into the 20%s, and beyond, in the national vote.

b) there is no new "Falklands War" on the horizon, as far as I can see, which might save 2TK's bacon, by getting everyone to rally around the flag and the government. That, above anything, cooked the SDP's goose in 1983.

And people don't think much of the current "Tory" leader, for obvious reasons...

The dream scenario for Reform UK.
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jeffian
Posted: 31 January 2025 00:01:13(UTC)
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"Labour will equally be split by Lib-Dumbs and Greenies."

Au contraire, whilst some Labour voters may defect to those parties, Labour are as vulnerable to Reform as the Tories. The 'Red Wall' was the basis of Boris's 2019 landslide and only became disillusioned because he (and particularly those around him - see below) failed to deliver. I think those voters will flock to Reform.

"And people don't think much of the current "Tory" leader for obvious reasons..."

I hope that statement doesn't have the nuances I think it might but, that aside, I have some regard for Kemi Badenoch but I fear that, like Boris, she will be undone by the inherent soft-left thinking now engrained in the Conservative Party. How could Boris, with such a huge majority, have failed to push through a radical agenda to benefit from the freedoms of Brexit and a 'small Goverment'/low tax regimen? Answer: Because a substantial number of his own MP's didn't believe in core Conservative principles. CCHQ is riddled with people who are completely out of touch with their core voters and operate an administration which imposes on constituencies candidates who often have no knowledge or understanding of the voters they are supposed to represent. Unless Kemi succeeds in cleaning out the Augean Stables of CCHQ, I can't see that changing which is why there can be no accommodation between Reform and the Tories. If Farage had to rely on the support of the current Tory crop of MP's, he'd fall at the first fence.
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 31 January 2025 00:08:21(UTC)
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People are sick of DEI hires.

Trump leads the way.

"Oh, the times they are a-changin'..."
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 31 January 2025 02:31:08(UTC)
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Pollster: ONLY 5% BELIEVE LABOUR ACT IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST

https://www.gbnews.com/p...our-statistic-reform-uk


Traitors, in other words...


I believe the fate of traitors should be somewhere between the following judicial punishments:-

a) exile for life in e.g. South Georgia, forced to build their own accommodation.

b) heads on spikes on London Bridge, after disembowelment...
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MarkSp
Posted: 31 January 2025 06:33:38(UTC)
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There is little enthusiasm for either the Islington socialists or the nasty but dims.

Farage is the definition of marmite

Beneath Farage there is a collection of racist xenophobes who failed the IQ test to get into the Nasty but Dim party.

I dont believe that deporting non-whites, dumping the ECHR, and stopping immigration will fix UK structural decline

I read the Reform Manifesto. It was absolutely Trumpist. Whole lists of exemptions to who paid tax eg NHS workers, service veterans etc, lower taxes and funding for all the interest groups. Unlike Trump it didn't even have the pretence of how it was going to be funded

UK spent about £5BN on migrants last year. What a waste!
UK spent 1,189 billion

If we spent nothing on Migrants does amyone think UK PLC would burst into a new era?

I dont want undocumnted migrants, I don't like family Visas where we get to bring in the dependents of minimum wage workers and the idea that we should pay benefits for the non-UK dependents of UK residents is resoundingly stupid.

On the otherside of the coin, we need people willing to work.

One of the underlying issues is accommodation. I live in SW London. I have no idea how anyone would afford a property where I live - a very unremarkable terrace house is 7 figures. If I lived in Sunderland I am staying in Sunderland. If I sold up and moved to Sunderland, I could never come back to London due to the differing rates of property price inflation.

Even if unemp/lpoyed Brits wanted to work or wanted to come of the sick lists, how do they move from areas of high unemplyment to where the jobs are?
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Robin B
Posted: 31 January 2025 08:57:12(UTC)
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MarkSp;332700 wrote:

Farage is the definition of marmite

Beneath Farage there is a collection of racist xenophobes who failed the IQ test to get into the Nasty but Dim party.

I dont believe that deporting non-whites, dumping the ECHR, and stopping immigration will fix UK structural decline

I read the Reform Manifesto. It was absolutely Trumpist. Whole lists of exemptions to who paid tax eg NHS workers, service veterans etc, lower taxes and funding for all the interest groups. Unlike Trump it didn't even have the pretence of how it was going to be funded

UK spent about £5BN on migrants last year. What a waste!
UK spent 1,189 billion

If we spent nothing on Migrants does amyone think UK PLC would burst into a new era?

I dont want undocumnted migrants, I don't like family Visas where we get to bring in the dependents of minimum wage workers and the idea that we should pay benefits for the non-UK dependents of UK residents is resoundingly stupid.

On the otherside of the coin, we need people willing to work.


Snowflake Mark. Contradicting himself and totally confused. To be fair, this is the middle aged Englishman who went on a Palestinian march in London because his wife told him to. Nothing like a bit of weekend virtue signaling...

UK spent £5Bn on migrants last year... Wrong. By a significant margin. Doesn't even understand simple facts and fails onwards from there.

Reform are racists... Trumpism (scream!)... that thing a large number of people have just voted for to get away from the kind of deluded nightmare people like Mark inadvertently support.

This is another useful NPC gauge, similar to Robert D. Doesn't say anything truthful or wise, but provides a a helpful insight into elite propaganda and stupidity - which we should all think and do the opposite of, by and large. So provides a useful function in that regard.

Thank you, Mark.
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ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 31 January 2025 09:28:01(UTC)
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All political parties have a bunch of bad apples within...

Labour has it's hard core of anti-Semites for example. Greens have their Critical Race Theory mob.


The legacy parties are desperate to prevent Reform increasing in power to become one of them, so there is a plethora of articles, news and claims of racism, xenophobia, islamaphobia etc. thrown at them.

Sounds a bit like the Brexit campaign. But it didn't work then and it won't work now.

Pointing out the absence of such policies on their web site just results in 'well, they are hiding it's or 'its below leadership level'.

There is, as with Brexit, a clear choice between 'more of the same' and 'radical change'. And, also like Brexit, I think the silent majority have had enough of the shit purveyed by Labour and Tories and are going to vote en masse for change.

The battle won't be won on the BBC and Sky News or in the Times or the Daily Mail. It will be fought, as with Brexit, by individuals on Social Media. Podcasts. Word of mouth.

Everyone in my group of friends is now a Reform voter. Many changing since the election.




Roll on May....
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