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Too much of the Magnificent Seven in our ISAs?
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Harry Gloom
Posted: 11 February 2025 14:51:04(UTC)
#11

Joined: 01/12/2022(UTC)
Posts: 389
Thrugelmir;333934 wrote:
I would never describe equities as being safe.

Only momentum behind the Mag 7 appears to be retail investors as institutions have been rotatating out.


Can you back this up with some data please?
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Big boy
Posted: 11 February 2025 16:03:36(UTC)
#13

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Johan De Silva;333946 wrote:
I believe I used the word "safest" in the context of equities. The Mag seven are some of the safest investments in equity. You could invest in bonds... but while rates are being cut the 10 to 30Y bond yields are indicating that rate rises chat is going to be likely at some point favouring quality of the Mag 7.

There are too many macro global outcomes to be completely "safe" in anything.


They may be "safest" but are they under or overvalued to-day.

What's the annualised growth rate factored in over say next 10 years for each stock..and do you really think this is attainable. We know the experts aren't alway good at judging but presume you are saying you can do better.

Some of us remember many stocks which were regarded in the same way.

Vodaphone. (something to do with mobile phones ...never catch on) which were sub. 12 % of FTSE 100...clealy a Global superstar and may even have joined the 'Mag 7'.

Markets,trends and tech. change so many of the past "Mags" are no where to be seen..
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Johan De Silva on 11/02/2025(UTC)
Harry Gloom
Posted: 11 February 2025 16:06:35(UTC)
#14

Joined: 01/12/2022(UTC)
Posts: 389
Big boy;333961 wrote:
Johan De Silva;333946 wrote:
I believe I used the word "safest" in the context of equities. The Mag seven are some of the safest investments in equity. You could invest in bonds... but while rates are being cut the 10 to 30Y bond yields are indicating that rate rises chat is going to be likely at some point favouring quality of the Mag 7.

There are too many macro global outcomes to be completely "safe" in anything.


They may be "safest" but are they under or overvalued to-day.

What's the annualised growth rate factored in over say next 10 years for each stock..and do you really think this is attainable. We know the experts aren't alway good at judging but presume you are saying you can do better.

Some of us remember many stocks which were regarded in the same way.

Vodaphone. (something to do with mobile phones ...never catch on) which were sub. 12 % of FTSE 100...clealy a Global superstar and may even have jointed the 'Mag 7'.

Markets,trends and tech. change so many of the past "Mags" are no where to be seen..


If you hold the index you hold the rotation as stars rise and stars fall
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5 users thanked Harry Gloom for this post.
Newbie on 11/02/2025(UTC), smg8 on 11/02/2025(UTC), Big boy on 11/02/2025(UTC), The Spanish Inquisition on 11/02/2025(UTC), Special Kloud on 16/02/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 11 February 2025 16:26:30(UTC)
#25

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,816
Stephen B.;333949 wrote:
It'll be interesting to revisit this thread in two or three years time ...

It will indeed.
I am confident there will be a magnificent 7 - maybe not the same ones but a mag 7 nevertheless.
I am also confident there will be a technology theme - just maybe not the same technology as we know it.
I am also pretty confident that the some of the current 7 if not all will still be around (some of them may move to value companies as opposed to growth ones).

You have to remember that many of the mag 7 have already died in some for another in the past. But some stupid leaders and their teams somehow manage to revive them and now some of those same people are incubating new companies and using that as a means of revenue and growth as opposed to developing anything new themselves.
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You have to change your life
Posted: 11 February 2025 16:42:06(UTC)
#16

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Stephen B.;333949 wrote:
It'll be interesting to revisit this thread in two or three years time ...


Yes, and it'll be interesting to backtest the performance over the last three years.

It is always best to check the credentials of anyone posting on a financial forum:- everyone has an axe to grind. I'm a long-term investor in Apple. But some are long-term naysayers in the same realm. For example,
Thrugelmir in 2012:


Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
9 November 2012 at 9:44PM
jonj123 wrote: »
Have the shares oversold and its now a good buying opportunity?

Companies such as Apple cannot innovate forever.

Also have problems with I5 supply chain. So Samsung is carving away business in the meantime.


Price since up 1000% (plus dividends).


You have to distinguish between what investors expect and what they hanker for, as very often their posts conflate the two.
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Harry Gloom on 11/02/2025(UTC), bearcub on 11/02/2025(UTC)
Paul Coombs
Posted: 11 February 2025 17:05:12(UTC)
#3

Joined: 02/02/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5
Newbie;333918 wrote:
10% is very low even compared to the major indices such as World Index, S&P 500, Value etc.

Personally I would not be negatively worried with a 10% allocation - instead I may be worried that I do not have enough given how much those companies are ingrained in our daily lives.


Interesting view - and now a debate on what % allocation I ought to consider maybe?
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Thrugelmir
Posted: 11 February 2025 17:05:52(UTC)
#17

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You have to change your life;333969 wrote:


You have to distinguish between what investors expect and what they hanker for, as very often their posts conflate the two.


Apple's PE ratio in 2012 was 12 today in 2025 it's 36.

If you are going to use hindsight. At least use facts and not random quotes taken out of any context. Says a lot that you've the time to waste dissing people. Rather than contrstructively debating investing and what may or may not lie ahead.
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Big boy on 11/02/2025(UTC)
Wheresthejam .
Posted: 11 February 2025 17:15:02(UTC)
#26

Joined: 27/01/2025(UTC)
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The debate in this thread confirms my opinion it may be best to let the "professionals" manage my funds for now:-)

AI seems to be peaking and tariffs causing chaos which I can't get my head around.


I've picked steady eddy JURE/JGGI, hopefully they won't botch it.
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Busy doing nothing on 11/02/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 11 February 2025 17:18:33(UTC)
#19

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,816
Thrugelmir;333975 wrote:
You have to change your life;333969 wrote:


You have to distinguish between what investors expect and what they hanker for, as very often their posts conflate the two.


Apple's PE ratio in 2012 was 12 today in 2025 it's 36.

If you are going to use hindsight. At least use facts and not random quotes taken out of any context. Says a lot that you've the time to waste dissing people. Rather than contrstructively debating investing and what may or may not lie ahead.

To be fair
You were not using PE to put down Apple -
You were using the concept of innovation and supply chain issues.
Your point still stands and today it is what many start with saying about Apple as a reason for not holding.
I do not disagree with your either. Apple is not and cannot innovate forever, Supply (China) is still an issue.
However....
To me Apple is now a value (as opposed to growth) company with recurring revenues and a sticky offering.
It forms/will form a smaller part of my portfolio

I do not need an iphone to communicate, I can do that with any phone, I do not need an iPad or a Macbook
However I do like their security features - which is why I moved to apple from MSFT in the first place - data security, breaches etc.
I like the certainty that the App store has predictable and recurring revenue (I also recognize that Zukerberg hates Apple as he has to pay to have his apps and offerings via the appstore and cannot rely on Android alone).

All the gimmicky stuff such an watches, pencils etc are of no interest to me, but I know that that there are plenty of aspiring people who will continue to buy them, not because they need or have any use for them, but they can look trendy and cool and pretend to to have some wealth.
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You have to change your life
Posted: 11 February 2025 17:24:08(UTC)
#18

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Thrugelmir;333975 wrote:
You have to change your life;333969 wrote:


You have to distinguish between what investors expect and what they hanker for, as very often their posts conflate the two.


Apple's PE ratio in 2012 was 12 today in 2025 it's 36.

If you are going to use hindsight. At least use facts and not random quotes taken out of any context. Says a lot that you've the time to waste dissing people. Rather than contrstructively debating investing and what may or may not lie ahead.




[b]Apple's PE ratio in 2012 was 12 today in 2025 it's 36.[/b


Exactly my point. Things change. You don't. It's not personal. You follow Grantham.
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Harry Gloom on 11/02/2025(UTC)
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