If you really think that there is anything out there that can guarantee not to have a down year or two from time to time then you are going to struggle.

This is the reason why you would have 2-3 years worth of cash/gilts/mmf’s etc.

Lifestrategy 60 (60/40) has still done over 7% annualised over the last 7 years (includes “2018 and 2022”) so not sure what your issue is with “multi-asset funds”.
In my opinion this is exactly the type of thing you should be invested in.

For disclosure, my largest holdings (and eventually my only holdings) are:
Lifestrategy 60
HSBC Global Strategy Balanced (60/40ish)
CGT (building up PNL).
Then I have at least three years of short dated gilts/mmf’s and cash.
Pushing 60 and retired with no more money being added to the pot so this is it…. no recovery possible from any bouts of bullish over-exuberance.

A standard 60/40 multi asset fund has never really taken longer than 32-33 months to recover its previous peaks even after a serious crash or multi year bear market (72-82 for example) hence “2-3 years” cash etc.

There is nothing here not to like.

I think 2022 was a very unique year in the way bonds and equities both dropped significantly at the same time.

The word unprecedented is overused but I think this is pretty unprecedented in recent years.

The issue wasn't simply "bonds" as you could have held certain bonds or funds where you'd barely have noticed and there are multi-asset funds where you would barely have noticed.

I'm in a similar position and trust me I wish I knew with certainty.

Part of what I can come up with is that investing is about stomach as much as it about spreadsheet.

According to the spreadsheet you may not be a forced seller but in the event how sure are you that you won't be?

I'm not a forced seller - on a spreadsheet I'm bulletproof.

£30 on a Finametrica test tells a slightly different story.

At that point perhaps the question changes slightly from "What's the point of bond funds?" to how do you take a bit of risk off the table?

For me anyway YMMV 👍🏼

As you are in “newly early-ish retirement” then yes….. unless you have a DB pension or are still ‘accumulating’ or have other assets that you can use in a severe bear market, you really are “missing something” and that is ‘history’ (it is never different this time)!

General equities can drop and stay down for 10-20 years and tend to coincide with gilt yields pushing higher (see links). This is a reason why multi-asset funds (eg: 60/40) cushions that blow and enables you to continue to draw from your ‘pot’ during severe market conditions. Yes they might drop but nowhere near as far and for a much shorter duration as investors switch out of equities and into bonds for safe haven.

How quickly will your pot deplete if you have to sell down for income during a multi year bear market/slump?

These charts are really useful. Take a look at the movement in10year gilt yields leading up to the beginning of a multi year equity bear market.
https://www.macrotrends....0-historical-chart-data
https://www.macrotrends....y-bond-rate-yield-chart

Beware of the “all in,100% equity, all of the time” posters in here. Some have DB pensions and maybe other assets to fall back on or are much younger and still accumulating. They don’t always fully disclose.

However, if you have only ever invested during ‘ZIRP’ and believe that equity valuations cannot collapse just when you might to sell some down… then the math is very clear…you would seriously deplete your wealth.

Edit… just noticed that you compared a 60/40 fund with one that is 100% equities and in investment terms, over a very short timeframe.
I don’t really have anything more to add the thread.

surely it'd be better to invest in owning a piece of the forest itself.
it'll throw off a few logs per annum, plus the value of the forest may go up, or it may go down,
depending on market valuations for forests.
It'd be heart 'warming' to know that you'd still get a few logs per annum either way....