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Value investingšŸ’”
Johan De Silva
Posted: 16 February 2025 14:01:04(UTC)
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I would like to think we have a clear hypothesis that disregards the low rate past environment.

Over 1 year the iShares S&P 500 Financials Sector delivered +32.19%. That has outperformed the Vanguard FTSE All-World +18.70% and S&P 500 +22.16%

The Financials Sector is still on low valuations. Especially US banks.

I am looking at active value ETFs like JAVA that seems to have had a good run but not yet been round enough to be proven. They invest in all the catch up sectors and linked strongly to the dollar.

I wonder if there are credible global options.
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Sheerman on 16/02/2025(UTC)
Tom 123
Posted: 16 February 2025 14:48:11(UTC)
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smg8;334663 wrote:
It's worth remembering the stock market sell off in 2018 was driven by trade tensions, fears of slowdown in the US, and rising interest rates. Sounds familiar?

And during that time, Value performed horribly.

So it's not quite as clear cut as some suggest that these specific conditions = value outperforming.

It might, but it also might not. It's a bet basically.


The flaw in this argument is that 2018 was a small blip for growth in a growth decade.

Widen the analysis to the 1970s and early 00s. Value trounced everything during major index resets.
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Johan De Silva on 16/02/2025(UTC)
Jamie CSA
Posted: 16 February 2025 15:47:55(UTC)
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Joined: 05/07/2023(UTC)
Posts: 3

This chart is may be of interest for the thread:

https://www.longtermtren...stocks-vs-value-stocks/

Growth stocks are at all time highs compared to value.

I have a FTSE 100 tracker and Vanguard Global Equity Income both of which have been mentioned. For US Specific I like the look of DHS (Wisdomtree US Equity Income). Also considering S & P 500 equal weight for future/next 10 years.

Like many posters I am nervous about equities being at all time highs, particularly the US (and US allocations to stocks also at ATH). I appreciate the run could go on for months/years but my own investing strategy for the next decade is a firm tilt towards value/commodities etc.




Thrugelmir
Posted: 16 February 2025 15:53:47(UTC)
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Hilda Ogden;334651 wrote:
Surely, all equity investment is "value" investing? Without value there's no hope for return? Though by "value" investing generally folks mean something a little more nuanced.


Agree totally. That's why access to data is so important. Enables filtering out of the overpriced and uninvestable. MSCI indexes use numerous metholodgies to refine stock selections. S&P500 is driven by companies being continually profitable on a quarterly basis.
Johan De Silva
Posted: 16 February 2025 16:23:55(UTC)
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Thrugelmir;334680 wrote:
Hilda Ogden;334651 wrote:
Surely, all equity investment is "value" investing? Without value there's no hope for return? Though by "value" investing generally folks mean something a little more nuanced.


Agree totally. That's why access to data is so important. Enables filtering out of the overpriced and uninvestable. MSCI indexes use numerous metholodgies to refine stock selections. S&P500 is driven by companies being continually profitable on a quarterly basis.


Could the one stop ETF for this filter the new Fidelity US Quality Value UCITS ETF ticker FUSV apply that additional filtering?
https://www.fidelity.lu/...00MKIH0W7/tab-portfolio

FUSV is still too new to get a MorningStar report on it.

I suspect there will be too much overlap for my own portfolio and strategy, but can see it combining well with an FTSE100 ETF, Europe and EM for a few investors who need companies to earn profit immediately and bypass the growth stage that are still likely overvalued (Common knowledge for others: High rates generally hurt high-growth companies with long-duration cash flows because of valuation compression and higher borrowing costs).

I wounder what it takes to raise the bar to 12-15% annualised gains. In true dragons den style, I don't get out of bed unless I am targeting 15%-30% annualised. The high bar includes AGT, HGT, PSH... or the search though FTSE250 companies who can compound greater than the drag of the UK economy.
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Sheerman on 17/02/2025(UTC)
Peanuts
Posted: 16 February 2025 17:26:34(UTC)
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Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
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I don't know how to post images but I think the below chart is worth a second glance or three..


https://assets.bwbx.io/i...vJrVRVD0mU/v3/-1x-1.webp
Mr Spock
Posted: 16 February 2025 17:34:08(UTC)
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I hold

https://www.trustnet.com...obal-strategic-value///

To balance the exposure to AI stuff
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Johan De Silva on 16/02/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 16 February 2025 17:40:49(UTC)
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Peanuts;334699 wrote:
I don't know how to post images but I think the below chart is worth a second glance or three..


https://assets.bwbx.io/i...vJrVRVD0mU/v3/-1x-1.webp

Whilst I agree that Europe does look attractive, I think it is a bit naive just to focus on one metric.
Just being cheap or low does not make compelling case for investing.
If it did, why not go for Emerging markets, it has been trailing lower for longer ?
Rather than trying to discount a holding/ sector/region perhaps a better way to look maybe to consider what the drivers are for over performance and assess whether it can continue.
We are now beginning to see dividends and income come from places one least expects it - but unlike the miners and commodities (which upped them to retain investors) the tech giants are now offering them as they have a surplus income and cannot find better ways to allocate them. This despite them having many different business and revenue streams.
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Johan De Silva on 16/02/2025(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 16 February 2025 17:58:17(UTC)
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I think we have a much easier version of 'value' to play with, in IT discounts. Where you actually have a clear difference between a NAV (often set by the market) and a share price.

I remind myself that prior to 2022, many of these now-cheap ITs were clearly too expensive. I had to sell out of my renewables ITs, because people were clearly overpaying. And the other day, when there was a cash offer for BBGI, it reassured me that if larger, high information investors actually look at today's discounted private asset ITs, they realise the same thing: these prices don't make sense.

I don't like messing around with value ETFs, because if there is an anomaly in low PE stocks, we don't know which way it is. Low PE stocks today may have poor growth prospects, be at risk of disruption, have too much debt. With how many zombie companies may be out there, and how much debt we've accumulated, being in the 'poor prospects' stocks might not be desirable at all.

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Johan De Silva on 16/02/2025(UTC), Guest on 16/02/2025(UTC), Peanuts on 16/02/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 17/02/2025(UTC)
Peter61
Posted: 16 February 2025 18:10:56(UTC)
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Tom 123;334653 wrote:
Also Vanguard FTSE All-World High Dividend Yield I like and own a bit of.

Top 10 seem a mix of 'Value' plus 'Quality':

JPMorgan Chase & Co 2.25%
Exxon Mobil Corp 1.61%
Procter & Gamble Co 1.32%
The Home Depot Inc 1.29%
Johnson & Johnson 1.17%
AbbVie Inc 1.05%
Bank of America Corp 0.98%
Merck & Co Inc 0.84%
Chevron Corp 0.83%
Coca-Cola Co 0.81%

I like this mix.

P/E 12x. Divi 4%. Long term earnings 8.65%.

Think I may add further.


I calculate the current dividend (dividends over last 12 months divided by share price) as 2.9%. Vanguard's fact sheet has 3.02% as of end of January.

Pete
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Guest on 16/02/2025(UTC)
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