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Aminatidi
Posted: 23 February 2025 16:16:51(UTC)
#62

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One of the things that sticks in my mind is the sheer range of predictions on where the S&P will finish the year.

Not from the likes of you or I but from "experts" who are paid massive amounts of money and who do this 24/7/365.

These were their predictions for 2024.



Remind me which ones I should listen to for 2025 🤔
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Newbie on 23/02/2025(UTC), Harry Gloom on 23/02/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 23 February 2025 17:12:10(UTC)
#69

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Aminatidi;335528 wrote:
Remind me which ones I should listen to for 2025 🤔

Not sure who to listen to but by logic you should vote for

Ben Ski and his specialist professional friends with a multitude of screens sat behind a desk with vast amounts of data !

(Sorry Ben)
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ben ski on 23/02/2025(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 23 February 2025 17:24:35(UTC)
#63

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Aminatidi;335528 wrote:


Remind me which ones I should listen to for 2025 🤔


None of them. Who knows what Trump and Musk are going to do next.

Forecasts are generally out of date within days of publication as the assumptions and data used are soon superceded.
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Guest on 24/02/2025(UTC), dlp6666 on 24/02/2025(UTC)
Zach F
Posted: 23 February 2025 17:28:12(UTC)
#64

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Thrugelmir;335533 wrote:
Aminatidi;335528 wrote:


Remind me which ones I should listen to for 2025 🤔


None of them. Who knows what Trump and Musk are going to do next.


Agreed, but by the same logic why on earth should listen to you and Tom123 who repeatedly tell us equities are over valued? Id argue the former are much more qualified than either of you.
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NPH on 23/02/2025(UTC)
Peanuts
Posted: 23 February 2025 17:54:53(UTC)
#71

Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
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SF100
Posted: 23 February 2025 17:55:09(UTC)
#70

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
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Newbie;335531 wrote:
Not sure who to listen to but by logic you should vote for

Ben Ski and his specialist professional friends with a multitude of screens sat behind a desk with vast amounts of data !

(Sorry Ben)

Not sure about the logic part...
But when his 'analysis' boils down to
'it's on a discount because old men don't know what they're doing'
I think Eric might be overcharging for services
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Thrugelmir
Posted: 23 February 2025 18:08:50(UTC)
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Zach F;335534 wrote:
Thrugelmir;335533 wrote:
Aminatidi;335528 wrote:


Remind me which ones I should listen to for 2025 🤔


None of them. Who knows what Trump and Musk are going to do next.


Agreed, but by the same logic why on earth should listen to you and Tom123 who repeatedly tell us equities are over valued?


You don't. Nor am I adverse to listening with respect to other people's views. Doesn't bother me if you have a closed mind. For the record I'm heaviliy weighted towards equities. Always have been. Likewise I'm more interested in the medium / long term.
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Jay P on 23/02/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 24/02/2025(UTC), dlp6666 on 24/02/2025(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 23 February 2025 18:10:16(UTC)
#76

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,254
Peanuts;335535 wrote:
Watch this.

https://www.youtube.com/...LN_Bto_tTAqBxa3uZw2XeSAR

Never trust a grown man with forehead botox.
Nice teeth though.
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NPH
Posted: 23 February 2025 18:15:40(UTC)
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Peanuts;335535 wrote:
Watch this.

https://www.youtube.com/...LN_Bto_tTAqBxa3uZw2XeSAR


I have no doubt there will be a correction at some point, but that wasn't the OP question.
Vanguard was merely forecasting that US large caps, which have outperformed for a decade, would underperform vs. other categories over the next, largely due to current valuations. Not crash, just grow less quickly.
And I was asking whether anyone was going to reassess the 'buy and hold a global tracker' strategy which has worked so well for so long, given US/large cap concentration in even a global fund.
The answer might be "all forecasts are rubbish, chasing the market is pointless, I'm sticking with my tracker".
Or it might be "My tracker is no longer diversified enough, I will be looking for pockets of value elsewhere".
Or many other variations I'm sure. All valid, all can be considered positively.
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Thrugelmir on 23/02/2025(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 23 February 2025 18:23:12(UTC)
#73

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NPH;335542 wrote:

Vanguard was merely forecasting that US large caps, which have outperformed for a decade, would underperform vs. other categories over the next, largely due to current valuations. Not crash, just grow less quickly.


Spot on. Very different to what the markets might do in the short term.
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