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Peanuts
Posted: 25 February 2025 07:13:18(UTC)
#1

Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
Posts: 1,476

Thanks: 2446 times
Was thanked: 2393 time(s) in 919 post(s)
Latest Vanguard "investment and economic outlook, February 2025"
https://corporate.vangua...c-outlook-feb-2025.html

Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts
https://corporate.vangua...o-return-forecasts.html


Where to find value in the U.S. markets
https://corporate.vangua...valuations-changed.html

Bonds remain in favor in time-varying model portfolio
https://corporate.vangua...ng-model-portfolio.html


^^^All latest articles from Vanguard for Rookie and others to read and enjoy. Peanut Disclaimer (PD): Always DYOR and please don't get too emotional if you don't agree with what Vanguard write. All articles are to help you become a more informed investor. No primates were harmed in the making of them.
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5 users thanked Peanuts for this post.
Phil 2 on 25/02/2025(UTC), Jon.Snow on 25/02/2025(UTC), Blunt Instrument on 26/02/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 26/02/2025(UTC), Thrugelmir on 27/02/2025(UTC)
NPH
Posted: 26 February 2025 09:23:12(UTC)
#2

Joined: 26/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 59
Peanuts;335684 wrote:
Latest Vanguard "investment and economic outlook, February 2025"
https://corporate.vangua...c-outlook-feb-2025.html

Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts
https://corporate.vangua...o-return-forecasts.html


Where to find value in the U.S. markets
https://corporate.vangua...valuations-changed.html

Bonds remain in favor in time-varying model portfolio
https://corporate.vangua...ng-model-portfolio.html


^^^All latest articles from Vanguard for Rookie and others to read and enjoy. Peanut Disclaimer (PD): Always DYOR and please don't get too emotional if you don't agree with what Vanguard write. All articles are to help you become a more informed investor. No primates were harmed in the making of them.


"not worth the paper" etc etc
But actually very interesting on how the decade of large cop growth dominance may be over, thanks
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Rookie Investor
Posted: 26 February 2025 12:26:41(UTC)
#3

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,081
None of these "research" pieces give any information whatsoever. It is just their own model, which there does not seem to be any details of, to come up with some projections. Without doing any fundamental analysis whatsoever. Just one based on stats and mean reversion.

Utterly pointless. Useless nonsense that serves no purpose for investors as there is literally zero added value.

Question is what do Vanguard get out of it? I reckon it is one way to sell some of their funds.
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Johan De Silva
Posted: 26 February 2025 12:34:20(UTC)
#5

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,409
Where do you see most value at today prices using bottoms up approach Rookie?

If it's Google can it outperform a 60:40 containing bonds that Vanguard actively push? Vanguard are simply trying to promote what they are good at and that is bonds.
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Rookie Investor
Posted: 26 February 2025 12:39:56(UTC)
#6

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,081
Johan De Silva;335836 wrote:
Where do you see most value at today prices using bottoms up approach Rookie?

If it's Google can it outperform a 60:40 containing bonds that Vanguard actively push? Vanguard are simply trying to promote what they are good at and that is bonds.



Need to look at each individual company in depth to determine value or not. Best not to generalise like "value will out perform growth" or "small cap out perform large cap".

I recently bought NVO and HSY as I see value in these names. I still have Google but not adding despite the dip. I think it can perform well still, even after the great out-performance over recent years,
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1 user thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
Raj K on 26/02/2025(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 26 February 2025 12:52:06(UTC)
#4

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,673

Thanks: 5660 times
Was thanked: 11110 time(s) in 4250 post(s)
Rookie Investor;335834 wrote:
None of these "research" pieces give any information whatsoever. It is just their own model, which there does not seem to be any details of, to come up with some projections. Without doing any fundamental analysis whatsoever. Just one based on stats and mean reversion.

Utterly pointless. Useless nonsense that serves no purpose for investors as there is literally zero added value.

Question is what do Vanguard get out of it? I reckon it is one way to sell some of their funds.

.......................
Simple the more they write the more investors place money with them as they believe they are experts. It's a great Profession being an 'expert" and we see many Forum Members supporting them in their nice lifestyle.

I am not sure you can say "zero added value" or even 100% added value" is utterly pointless but I agree its ALL of no value as pure guesswork and gambling by alsorts of experts and non-expert.

I belive that its best to disregard this type of information as neither you or anyone has the answer to the future. Perhaps it's best not to get involved with the 99.9% of investors going this route as they will cause false markets as we see regularly.

The investment industry is full of highly paid experts who spend hours researching and providing DD which I dont think adds any value.

I saw much of this Research and meet many of the Researches who PIs are happy to pay millions to.
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1 user thanked Big boy for this post.
Jed Mires on 26/02/2025(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 26 February 2025 20:44:35(UTC)
#7

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,352

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To be fair

On the Vanguard website today, their global economic and investment outlook for 2015. They do not paint a rosy picture and suggest that both small caps and high dividend-income stocks may be currently overvalued. According to Vanguard's Davis, look for muted returns on a balanced portfolio (3% -5% after inflation) and expect continued volatility going forward. Substantial economic risks internationally (deflation, recession), less so in US but valuations more stretched. Comments?

– Highlights from Vanguard’s 2015 global economic and investment outlook

https://www.bogleheads.o.../viewtopic.php?t=153284

Then they got very concerned about US valuations, and expected higher returns from Europe. Leading them to adjust the tactical allocations of the US LifeStrategy funds, tilting towards Europe. 10 years ago. And they don't seem to keep these archived on their site.
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1 user thanked ben ski for this post.
Sheerman on 27/02/2025(UTC)
Peanuts
Posted: 01 March 2025 08:10:40(UTC)
#8

Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
Posts: 1,476

Thanks: 2446 times
Was thanked: 2393 time(s) in 919 post(s)
The UK version of Vanguard economic and market update now available with chart in link

https://www.vanguard.co....nomic-and-market-update

Vanguard still *think* UK equities and Global bonds ex-UK (hedged) to be the better performer over the next decade. Not a bad advert for their LifeStrategy 60.
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1 user thanked Peanuts for this post.
malc1111 on 01/03/2025(UTC)
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