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ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 27 February 2025 11:07:34(UTC)
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Well the world is certainly "interesting" at the moment with a whole flock of black swans waiting in the wings to fly into centre stage.

I though it might be amusing to list a few and tick them off as or if they come to pass... I know I carry the monika of 'permabear' but these are not predictions or calls for action. Just a few things to provoke thought.

Other suggestions are welcome... I will edit the list. Stragely most seem to be US related....

So, in no particular order...


1 Trump withdaws America from NATO

2 Significant Tariffs imposed on Europe and Asia and follwed through on

3 Trumps send troops into Greenland/Panama/Gaza/Canada

4 Oil hits $150+

5 China invades Taiwan

6 China invades Russian Manchuria

7 Someone gets assasinated.... Trump/Putin/Zelensky/Musk/Netenyahu/Lukashenko/Vance/A.N.Other

8 Russia invades Lithuania

9 Trump withdraws all support for Ukraine and it falls to Putin completely

10 The Fed starts to raise US Interet rates

11 Trump is impeached

12 Iran completes a nuke

13 Ethnic Cleansing and forced repatriation of Gaza

14 Trump lifts all sanctions on Russia - Europe continues to apply

15 US constitution is changed to allow Musk to be President
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SF100 on 27/02/2025(UTC), Wheresthejam . on 28/02/2025(UTC)
Dexi
Posted: 27 February 2025 11:39:15(UTC)
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If you can predict it in advance , then it`s not a genuine " Black Swan " event : ) Of those mentioned , which would have the biggest impact on investments ? My guess would be a big rise in US rates , or maybe lots of sanctions applied to Europe and China . Can`t see either of those happening , but who knows ?
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ANDREW FOSTER on 27/02/2025(UTC), Sara G on 27/02/2025(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 27 February 2025 12:24:25(UTC)
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Actual Black Swans must be even rarer and more obscure than they were before, because I get the sense that almost anything is now possible, and so many possibilities have spiralled into forecasts or been factored into people's strategies. Trump putting the $ back on the gold standard (having revalued US gold reserves) was the most recent one I've heard.

It may be that it isn't the big headline stuff that upends everything (in investing terms at least). It might be something blowing up in the private credit markets (for example) - but that isn't really a black swan as lots of people have thought of it, it just doesn't make the news so much. It was the same with sub-prime lending before the GFC. But something unconsidered in the financial system would be my bet.

I suppose the opposite question is also of interest, i.e. what is the potential upside if none of the above materialises? It may be limited where valuations are already high.

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Newbie on 27/02/2025(UTC), Dexi on 27/02/2025(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 27/02/2025(UTC), Rookie Investor on 27/02/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 27/02/2025(UTC), bearcub on 28/02/2025(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 27 February 2025 13:30:42(UTC)
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Whilst I agree with Sara G - revaluation of gold upwards, part of me worries in that how can the $ go back to gold given that the top 5 companies in the US are worth more than all the gold mined in the world at current levels.

It would mean that the $ has to go down significantly or gold needs to shoot up to the sky. The former weakens the US whilst the latter emboldens some of its enemies and politically it all creates more tensions.
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ANDREW FOSTER on 27/02/2025(UTC), Sara G on 27/02/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 27/02/2025(UTC)
Tug Boat
Posted: 27 February 2025 13:40:45(UTC)
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When I first saw the title of this thread I genuinely thought it was about an event at a local pub. What a plonker. It was not until reading the first post when i twigged it.

Would have to be in Dawlish I guess.
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Sara G on 27/02/2025(UTC), Jay P on 27/02/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 27/02/2025(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 27 February 2025 14:07:20(UTC)
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Grey Rhino's are far from extinct. If you open your mind.
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Sara G on 27/02/2025(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 27/02/2025(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 27 February 2025 15:04:01(UTC)
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Sara G;335938 wrote:
Actual Black Swans must be even rarer and more obscure than they were before, because I get the sense that almost anything is now possible, and so many possibilities have spiralled into forecasts or been factored into people's strategies. Trump putting the $ back on the gold standard (having revalued US gold reserves) was the most recent one I've heard.

It may be that it isn't the big headline stuff that upends everything (in investing terms at least). It might be something blowing up in the private credit markets (for example) - but that isn't really a black swan as lots of people have thought of it, it just doesn't make the news so much. It was the same with sub-prime lending before the GFC. But something unconsidered in the financial system would be my bet.

I suppose the opposite question is also of interest, i.e. what is the potential upside if none of the above materialises? It may be limited where valuations are already high.



This is exactly right. I get the impression that these sorts of threads get started by people who find market highs as a bit perplexing given the constant bombardment of negative news across various media. It is a naive way of thinking. The classic type 1 thinking as per Daniel Kahneman.

Markets are pricing in the good, bad and ugly. It is incredibly hard to know at the index level what future returns will be like. Far easier at an individual company level.

I think it is fair to assume markets are broadly correct in its pricing, such that all news has been discounted.

You might as well chat about the things Andrew brings up with a random bloke down the pub. You will get a more enjoyment out of the discussion and hopefully realise these things should not be taken seriously, at least not enough to make significant changes to portfolio.
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Martina on 27/02/2025(UTC), Sara G on 27/02/2025(UTC), Robin B on 27/02/2025(UTC)
OmegaMale
Posted: 27 February 2025 15:32:59(UTC)
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In the spirit of the original question:

A major volcanic eruption (big enough to have a global impact):

Campi Flegrei and/or Vesuvius could destroy Naples and have a significant impact over Europe.

Santorini would wreck the Greek tourist industry and associated Tsunami could have consequences.

Katla caused "The year without a summer" a few hundred years ago so any big Icelandic volcano would be impactful.

Yellowstone

AMOC Cessation It has been suggested that the AMOC is slowing and could potentially cease plunging Europe into harsh winters and short summers

Californian Earthquake ("The Big One")

Asteroid strike


Of course the chances of any of these actually happening in the next 50 years is (hopefully) miniscule but they could certainly trigger all sorts of financial horrors.

OM
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Sara G on 27/02/2025(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 27/02/2025(UTC)
D Bergman
Posted: 27 February 2025 16:32:43(UTC)
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OM:

Of the events you listed, Yellowstone has the best (worst?) capacity to destroy civilization as we know it.
It has been suggested that a human sacrifice of the US "King" would suffice to assuage the gods.
That might not work but always useful to try...

Other than that, let's not forget Mount Tambora - the last major eruption was much worse than Krakatoa.
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ANDREW FOSTER on 27/02/2025(UTC), OmegaMale on 27/02/2025(UTC), Gary Millar on 28/02/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 27 February 2025 16:47:29(UTC)
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OmegaMale;335966 wrote:
In the spirit of the original question:

A major volcanic eruption (big enough to have a global impact):

Campi Flegrei and/or Vesuvius could destroy Naples and have a significant impact over Europe.

Santorini would wreck the Greek tourist industry and associated Tsunami could have consequences.

Katla caused "The year without a summer" a few hundred years ago so any big Icelandic volcano would be impactful.

Yellowstone

AMOC Cessation It has been suggested that the AMOC is slowing and could potentially cease plunging Europe into harsh winters and short summers

Californian Earthquake ("The Big One")

Asteroid strike


Of course the chances of any of these actually happening in the next 50 years is (hopefully) miniscule but they could certainly trigger all sorts of financial horrors.

OM



Yes these would be true Black Swans...

But 50 years with miniscule chance? Perhaps not. It's not so very long ago to the Japanese and Asian Tsunami events which were pretty significant.

We could easily have a natural catastrophe in a major urban centre like New Orleans or Tokyo or Jakarta.

I take the earlier point about Grey Rhinos and perhaps some of my list would fall more onto that category.

But I'm of the opinion that the next 'big thing's will be more man made.
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