Correct me if I'm wrong here but I got the feeling that the Boxing day Tsunami didn't actually have a huge economic impact in a global sense although obviously an appalling tragedy for all those affected.

Similarly for the Japanese one too? I think an earlier Japanese earthquake messed up the Semiconductor supply back in the 80s or 90s leading to the RAM raider phenomenon.

Where a volcano could have a significant consequence is if it causes a cold winter or two. Apart from the agricultural impact, the extra energy requirements for heating could cause all sorts of issues. There were a couple of really cold winters after Mt St Helens went bang which may have been a consequence of all the volcanic ash ejected?

OM

I think it was Madeira or La Palma but apparently there has been further modelling done which disputes whether the damage on the east coast of the US would be as big as originally feared.

The 2022 Hunga Tonga should have achieved a certain fame with its global impact on weather.
https://research.noaa.go...ga-tonga-2022-eruption/
An extra 10% of water vapour blasted into the stratosphere.
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov...ater-into-stratosphere/
Might be responsible for breaching the 1.5 degC threshold.
https://www.carbonbrief....-temporary-1-5c-breach/
The water vapour is still up there.
https://www.newscientist...is-still-in-atmosphere/

But..it had and has rather passed me by.
In previous times, it would have been a major source of conjecture and debate, with every weather event pinned to it, right or wrong.
Maybe it's better for the media and the science industry to lay any weather changes at the door of climate change rather than a volcano.
That's certainly been the case with eg the higher UK rainfall over the last two winters - climate catastrophe, don't you know..
But all that water vapour has to come down again to achieve equilibrium, so here's to drier winters again by 2028.

I think you may be referring to the Cumbre Vieja tsunami hazard, in the Canary Islands.
There is a fault in the volcano that could cause a massive tsunami if the volcano erupts.

In such a case the "major blow to markets" you mention might be the least of our worries.

Personally, I think that Indonesia has the greatest capacity for very large-scale destruction. There are over 120 active volcanoes there. The last time we were in Java our bedroom started shaking, and the Reception manager assured us that there was no danger as the spirits were merely laughing.

None of the items listed are examples of black swan events. They are more like "I'd rather these things didn't happen", and of a relatively trifling, political nature.

Examples of actual black swans:

- A genuinely horrifying pandemic, of comparable effect to the Black Death during the middle ages, which wiped out 50% of Europe's population. Perhaps even worse, if something really grotesque is leaked again from a biolab, or maybe linked to the dodgy bush meat being imported into the UK...

- Yellowstone erupts, big time: we are fucked. There have been chains of volcanic eruptions in the past, prior to civilization, that brought our forebears close to the brink of extinction.

- A meteorite comparable to the one thought to have wiped out the dinosaurs, which by the way, were around for far longer than we have been before they were annihilated.

- Some kind of massive civil war in future, perhaps in Europe.

- A new ice age. Inevitable. Despite what all the CO2 warming alarmist bed wetters and grifters are going on about, it is the cold periods that are really scary. The warm periods are wonderful, usually characterised by an outbreak of life (as we indeed see, same during the Permian and at other times). Ice ages make life extremely challenging. And going by the dire state of the so called climate sciences, I can only assume we don't know what causes these or when the next one will be.

- Changes in the inter planetary system that somehow make this planet less habitable, or even uninhabitable.

Some of these examples will happen at some point. They are matters of nature; not if, but when. I think the question for us ought to be: what type of attitude, philosophy, approach to life helps us to develop sufficiently and in the right way to be prepared, as a civilization?