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Black Swan Bingo :)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 27 February 2025 23:44:45(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;336013 wrote:

Not sure I'd call a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and a likely subsequent Chinese-USA war a "trifling political matter" 🤷🏼‍♂️


Trump is after Greenland and Canada. `
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ANDREW FOSTER on 28/02/2025(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 28 February 2025 15:01:35(UTC)
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I'll throw a couple of things into the mix, perhaps they're related.

- AI; rogue models (sabotage, or not) or just mainstream AI, will end up eating itself from the inside causing all sorts of disruption. Once it is mainstream, it may also be end up cast aside as the result of a massive lawsuit where it has cost a corporation trillions; the liabilities are just too great for it to be adopted as people expect, or are we going to end up where every major decision in the world is ultimately made by 500 programmers?

- An almighty worldwide IT outage, hackers or not, causing all sorts of disruption. Notably there have been several in UK recently (train systems, banking etc). Having 6 different investment platforms each will probably not help much; physical gold being the only show in town, and guess who has most of that...

- Another pandemic is inevitable, probably sooner rather than later. We can already see the west cutting foreign aid budgets; poor countries will stagnate and 'find' new viruses to send around the world, all while our pharmaceuticals struggle to develop effective antibiotics, which already seems to be the case.
2 users thanked SF100 for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 28/02/2025(UTC), bearcub on 28/02/2025(UTC)
Wheresthejam .
Posted: 28 February 2025 16:54:10(UTC)
#25

Joined: 27/01/2025(UTC)
Posts: 54



--US defaults on its national debt

--I get the impression Trump really hates europe therefore him carpet bombing europe cannot be ruled out
bearcub
Posted: 28 February 2025 17:20:13(UTC)
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SF100;336078 wrote:
- AI; rogue models (sabotage, or not) or just mainstream AI, will end up eating itself from the inside causing all sorts of disruption. Once it is mainstream, it may also be end up cast aside as the result of a massive lawsuit where it has cost a corporation trillions; the liabilities are just too great for it to be adopted as people expect, or are we going to end up where every major decision in the world is ultimately made by 500 programmers?

I think that's quite astute, and related to the wide uptake of A.I. is the adoption of fully self-driving cars which use A.I. to navigate. The technology isn't quite there yet, but in 5 or 10 years it'll work 99.99% of the time. The thing that may halt its adoption is the 0.01% where several people are killed accidentally by self-driving cars, then there's a big class action lawsuit in the US which wipes out Tesla, or whoever.
1 user thanked bearcub for this post.
SF100 on 28/02/2025(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 28 February 2025 17:35:54(UTC)
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Wheresthejam .;336093 wrote:




--I get the impression Trump really hates europe therefore him carpet bombing europe cannot be ruled out


Wants Europe to buy more from the USA. We might buy a lot from US companies however majority originates in the Far East.

US Companies base themselves in Eire for one reason only. Corporate Tax.
3 users thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Newbie on 28/02/2025(UTC), Wheresthejam . on 28/02/2025(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 28/02/2025(UTC)
Wheresthejam .
Posted: 28 February 2025 18:06:29(UTC)
#27

Joined: 27/01/2025(UTC)
Posts: 54

Granddaddy of all black swan events?


--scientists discover our world is just a computer simulation
Tug Boat
Posted: 28 February 2025 18:37:22(UTC)
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Have thought it is a simulation for ages.

We always rationalise weird stuff with explanations.

The crap with which we have to cope: religion, religion, war , religion, football, politics…

What else could it be?
2 users thanked Tug Boat for this post.
Sara G on 28/02/2025(UTC), Jay P on 28/02/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 28 February 2025 19:19:34(UTC)
#24

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,120

bearcub;336095 wrote:

I think that's quite astute, and related to the wide uptake of A.I. is the adoption of fully self-driving cars which use A.I. to navigate. The technology isn't quite there yet, but in 5 or 10 years it'll work 99.99% of the time. The thing that may halt its adoption is the 0.01% where several people are killed accidentally by self-driving cars, then there's a big class action lawsuit in the US which wipes out Tesla, or whoever.


As long as a "safety driver" is required to take control at a moments notice then the entire purpose of the expense of AI in a car is gone.

I don't want to sit behind the wheel for three hours being pinged every three minutes to make sure Im still awake. I might as well actually drive, it passes the time more quickly. It's actually quite enjoyable on a journey.

But yes the liability issue is very tricky indeed. Who is responsible. The programmer, the car maker, the driver?


OmegaMale
Posted: 28 February 2025 20:14:05(UTC)
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After watching Trump vs. Zelenskyy an hour or two ago it does make me wonder what would happen if Trump was assassinated? That is not necessarily a Black Swan event but JD Vance taking over might well well trigger one?

May well happen in just under 4 years anyway?

OM
2 users thanked OmegaMale for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 28/02/2025(UTC), Jay P on 28/02/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 28 February 2025 20:21:56(UTC)
#30

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,120

OmegaMale;336102 wrote:
After watching Trump vs. Zelenskyy an hour or two ago it does make me wonder what would happen if Trump was assassinated? That is not necessarily a Black Swan event but JD Vance taking over might well well trigger one?

May well happen in just under 4 years anyway?

OM


One might suspect that Trump chose Vance as his running mate specifically to discourage people taking a shot at him again.... Because people would view that as worse.

Where Trump is a hard nosed businessman, Vance is a religious nut job.

And WTAF is with Musk going around in sunglasses and a baseball cap and a flasher mac trying to look like a Bond villain that you ordered from Temu. It just looks like he doesn't give a sh1t about how he is perceived. Oh wait... he doesn't...


3 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Jay P on 28/02/2025(UTC), OmegaMale on 28/02/2025(UTC), SF100 on 01/03/2025(UTC)
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