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Daz
Posted: 05 March 2025 11:18:08(UTC)
#1

Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 8
Hi folks,

I'm looking for info and further reading on a certain style of investing.

I'll give two examples:

#1: In 2023, people started to get really excited about A.I., so all tech stocks related to A.I. shot up.
#2: In the last few weeks, as it becomes clear the U.S. is preparing to abandon NATO, European defense stocks have risen.

So my question is, does this sort of long term(ish) investing have a name?

I'd like to read up about more examples of these kinds of rises that happened in the past, in order to build up a better mental map about future opportunities. I'd love to find a book that runs through many examples.

To my mind, what's interesting about them is that they're not economically "technical", they rely more on an understanding of trends & events in the political & cultural world. So, anyone with good understanding of the world and common sense could either predict or recognize them as they're happening.

Any info or suggestions for further reading would be appreciated!

Thanks!
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ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 05 March 2025 11:33:38(UTC)
#2

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
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Daz;336576 wrote:
Hi folks,

I'm looking for info and further reading on a certain style of investing.

I'll give two examples:

#1: In 2023, people started to get really excited about A.I., so all tech stocks related to A.I. shot up.
#2: In the last few weeks, as it becomes clear the U.S. is preparing to abandon NATO, European defense stocks have risen.

So my question is, does this sort of long term(ish) investing have a name?




I don't think they have the same name...

#1 Is based on forecasts and predictions for for companies and products
#2 Is based more on intentions and policy of governments

I might call #1 "Thematic Investing" or more cynically "Meme Investing"

Perhaps #2 could be "Geo-political investing"

But those are just my take, rather than anything recognised.
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Daz on 05/03/2025(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 05 March 2025 11:40:28(UTC)
#3

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,818

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Was thanked: 6651 time(s) in 2090 post(s)
Noise investing! That's what i call it.

Seems a lot of traffic here on these forums discussing Trump and his antics.

I just ignore most of it. Clutters the mind, causes too much trading!
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7 users thanked Raj K for this post.
Chris1986 on 05/03/2025(UTC), Rookie Investor on 05/03/2025(UTC), Newbie on 05/03/2025(UTC), Jay P on 05/03/2025(UTC), Daz on 05/03/2025(UTC), Nigel Harris on 06/03/2025(UTC), Big boy on 06/03/2025(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 05 March 2025 12:23:53(UTC)
#4

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
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Raj K;336579 wrote:
Noise investing! That's what i call it.

Seems a lot of traffic here on these forums discussing Trump and his antics.

I just ignore most of it. Clutters the mind, causes too much trading!





Yeh seems some like to make bold statements about this or that will happen due to Trump, tariffs etc. It really is a bad way of thinking if one is investing, because it is coming up with extreme definitive conclusions, when the world and these sorts of news is a lot more complicated and nuanced than that.

Just take a look at Andrew Foster's various posts over the years, in particular he had some very strong views on Meta in 2022 about the metaverse, when a decent enough investor would have looked into a bit more and saw that it was one of, if not the best opportunities to buy quality for cheap, for many years.

Unless you know for damned sure something will happen, there is no need to make drastic changes to one's portfolio. 99.9% of the time it never is 100% certain, so always have a balanced view and look out for opportunities, like Meta in 2022 which was IMO over 90% certainty of a good deal, but unfortunately I did not look into it.
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Daz on 05/03/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 05 March 2025 14:14:23(UTC)
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Rookie Investor;336582 wrote:
Raj K;336579 wrote:
Noise investing! That's what i call it.

Seems a lot of traffic here on these forums discussing Trump and his antics.

I just ignore most of it. Clutters the mind, causes too much trading!





Yeh seems some like to make bold statements about this or that will happen due to Trump, tariffs etc. It really is a bad way of thinking if one is investing, because it is coming up with extreme definitive conclusions, when the world and these sorts of news is a lot more complicated and nuanced than that.

Just take a look at Andrew Foster's various posts over the years, in particular he had some very strong views on Meta in 2022 about the metaverse, when a decent enough investor would have looked into a bit more and saw that it was one of, if not the best opportunities to buy quality for cheap, for many years.

Unless you know for damned sure something will happen, there is no need to make drastic changes to one's portfolio. 99.9% of the time it never is 100% certain, so always have a balanced view and look out for opportunities, like Meta in 2022 which was IMO over 90% certainty of a good deal, but unfortunately I did not look into it.


I did have strong views on Meta...and it's Metaverse project

And I was correct! The Metaverse was a total, utter disaster that absorbed billions and was never going to work.

Of course things recovered after it was quietly abandoned..🤷🏼‍♂️ Meta makes a lot of cashflow.

There was, of course, no way to know when that would happen or how much money would be thrown into the money pit first.

The important thing to grasp is that when large macro events are on motion, a decision to stay put is as profound as a decision to switch out. We have access to the same facts.

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Daz on 05/03/2025(UTC)
Mike ...
Posted: 05 March 2025 16:09:44(UTC)
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Reading some posters on here I do wonder whether their political views are nudging them mentally towards the extreme of the range of outcomes.

For example, Trump is obviously polarising but those who hate him seem to think the world economy is going to go over the cliff because of him.

That may turn out to be true but I’d rather view him as a businessman operating in a political world and is ruffling feathers because he isn’t following the decades long political consensus.

He’s applying pressure to what he perceives to be the benefit of the US, not to bring about economic Armageddon.
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3 users thanked Mike ... for this post.
Jay P on 05/03/2025(UTC), Daz on 05/03/2025(UTC), Newbie on 05/03/2025(UTC)
Daz
Posted: 05 March 2025 17:12:27(UTC)
#8

Joined: 12/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 8
Thanks for the replies!

I guess i mean something between thematic & meme because it has elements of both.

Any suggested further reading on this topic? Any gurus i should check out on Youtube?

re: Trump. I really do believe he intends to leave NATO quite soon, and that would have big knock-on effect economically.

I also think that he will hand Taiwan to China after stripping out whatever assets he can. That would be totally in keeping with his recent action as well as stated (many times) admiration of dictators. It just doesn't make logical sense to me that he would be so pro Putin yet be anti Xi, because you can't get a piece of paper between those two guys. Not trying to stir up an argument, I'm just saying what i think will happen.

re: the Metaverse, totally agree, complete nonsense, the Metaverse is something that will just emerge naturally when the world and the tech is ready for it. I was heavily involved with the whole crypto world BTW, but that's another story.
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John Rodger on 05/03/2025(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 05 March 2025 17:19:00(UTC)
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Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
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Daz;336616 wrote:


re: Trump. I really do believe he intends to leave NATO quite soon, and that would have big knock-on effect economically.



For the US defence industry it would. The US Government spends billions of $'s. As with USAID. Little trickles out into the wider global economy. Majority remains at home so to speak.
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Daz on 05/03/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 05 March 2025 17:30:29(UTC)
#10

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
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Thrugelmir;336617 wrote:
Daz;336616 wrote:


re: Trump. I really do believe he intends to leave NATO quite soon, and that would have big knock-on effect economically.



For the US defence industry it would. The US Government spends billions of $'s. As with USAID. Little trickles out into the wider global economy. Majority remains at home so to speak.


For the record, I don't thnk the USA will actually leave NATO. I understand that can't be done without Congress approval and I think enough Repulicans would mutiny at that. Some quiet conversation in dark rooms would happen long before it got even on the table.

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Daz on 05/03/2025(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 05 March 2025 17:50:19(UTC)
#11

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ANDREW FOSTER;336618 wrote:
Thrugelmir;336617 wrote:
Daz;336616 wrote:


re: Trump. I really do believe he intends to leave NATO quite soon, and that would have big knock-on effect economically.



For the US defence industry it would. The US Government spends billions of $'s. As with USAID. Little trickles out into the wider global economy. Majority remains at home so to speak.


For the record, I don't thnk the USA will actually leave NATO. I understand that can't be done without Congress approval and I think enough Repulicans would mutiny at that. Some quiet conversation in dark rooms would happen long before it got even on the table.



I agree. However up to Europe to fund it's own defence. In total there are still 12 operational US airbases in the UK for example. All residual from their presence here in WW2.

Look at the world through the lens of an average American. The challenges they are experiencing. The US is far from being one huge theme park. Travelling around the Deep South in May. We had a game while travelling. Spot the Tesla. On one occcasion it was nearly four hours / 200 miles. Returning to the outskirts of Atlanta they were instantly plentiful. Cybertrucks visible as well.
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2 users thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Daz on 05/03/2025(UTC), Nigel Harris on 06/03/2025(UTC)
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