Well of course we've not left the EU yet.

Indeed the best performing asset class in the world over the past 6 months has been UK Micro-Caps (the most domestic-facing of UK companies).

I voted Remain because I didn't want to rock the boat .. But I think the reality is no one has a clue what the effects of Brexit will be .. I worked briefly in European business law, and the complexity of EU trade laws are unfathomable .. You could read the whole of Proust's In Search of Lost Time ten times before you'd even made a dent on these vast digital libraries .. We're told to trust economists – but they've proven less useful than coin tosses when it comes to macro forecasts (which is why they're not all running hedge funds) – and academia's so politically biased these days, fields like economics are becoming little more than Marxist fan-fiction.

King Lodos
The Poles and immigration, have sounded out the situation.
The Poles say that they are not responsible for the flow of refugees, having been reluctantly drawn in by the coalitions. It is the big players like the USA that need to sort this out.
Secondly they feel that refugees could do more, as the Poles did, during the last war fighting alongside the allies to help win the war, and not expect hospitality without such an effort.

Well I'm completely in favour of Eastern European immigration, but many others aren't.

The problem with this calculation is it involves weighing economic effects against social effects .. Our universities are full of the children of middle-class parents who benefit from globalism – as are the universities themselves (who benefit from foreign students).

So it's no surprise academics often come to the same conclusion – apparently 92% of professors hold leftwing political views .. This is the environment of Communist rags like Fight Racism! Fight Imperialism! .. But the problems a family in Corby face, when the people who used to give them work are now employing Poles, and the danger society now faces from Islamic terrorism and cultural tensions, and an increase in violent crime across Europe (bucking a long-term trend), are all real effects which have to be quantified too .. And the public are clearly saying: the social effects aren't being taken seriously enough.

With a question like immigration, it's always good to ask what would Socrates say? My guess is that he would use 'ad absurdum': If one Chinese mother and child is good, 50 million of the same must be good. If one Polish plumber is good then 20 million of them must be good. If you can't see that is absurd then you are not looking for an answer; you are looking for an excuse.

At this point, the 'straw man' argument usually comes up that Brits are 'little Englanders' against all immigration. In fact, Brits are clearly against excessive immigration.

Once you accept there are good and bad levels of immigration then you have no choice but to set a time-variant quota. This is what those benefiting from immigration try to avoid discussing at all costs - usually by playing the 'racist' card to shut down discussion.

Once you have a quota then the question is who sets it and on what basis? Britain has spoken - the British people must set it, or at least their properly elected representatives in parliament. (Take back control.) The basis of the quota is whatever is best for British people. That doesn't mean 'on average' if that produces a hugely better off London minority and a worse off rest of the country. Taking back control from a self-serving London establishment is a work in progress.

As for students - they are in a bubble, benefiting from the current system. What seems a rational decision for one student to take becomes someone else's 'externality' problem if repeated by hundreds of thousands of students and their parents.

1. I think it's complete non sequitur (on the part of Paxman, et al) to say May's done a U-turn on Brexit .. As soon as the country made the decision to leave, her own (and own our) choice stopped being relevant – and then the only job became getting the best deal.

I never thought we needed a pro-Brexiter negotiating for us – but when political battles are fought on soundbites and reductive headlines, it forces May into a corner.


2. Even the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated (the Tsar Bomba) would only wipe out from the centre of London to about Richmond upon Thames .. From St Albans to Reading, your chances get much better – and we've detonated thousands of nukes over the past century which haven't ended the world.

What they have done is made the prospect of war so unappealing (especially financially), war has practically fallen off a cliff – as documented in Steve Pinker's The Better Angels of Our Nature .. There's never been a time in human history you're less likely to be killed in conflict .. And Trident's Second Strike capability means there's really no practical value in trying to wipe out the whole UK with multiple warheads. Of course, you have to be willing to use it to ensure you'll never have to use it.



The most likely nuclear attack this generation will ever see will be a dirty bomb from a terrorist group.


3. The most important thing to understand with debt and austerity is the long-term debt cycle .. The real driver of growth in an economy is knowledge (new advancements leading to greater efficiency) .. But we spend 75% of the time growing faster than this fundamental trend – through Keynesian economics, spending, borrowing, etc.

At some point, this trend has to reverse, because economies can't sustain growth faster than fundamentals are actually growing, indefinitely .. and at this point debt usually becomes a real issue for future growth, and it has to be paid down .. And at some points this involves austerity, and at others, stimulative measures (like reducing corporation tax – because the real measure is Debt/GDP of course).

May's plans have both elements – trying to maintain growth while paying down debt .. I don't think anyone on earth knows whether they're going to be effective – however, Corbyn's plans would be almost trying to copy what Socialists did with Greece and Venezuela's economies .. I think now would be a very dangerous time to increase debt whilst slowing the economy. I've mentioned I'd be looking to offshore my financial assets.