I’ve been supporting independence for at least the last four years. Over that time it became clear the only argument the No camp had was that ‘the polls show it will be No’. But having looked at the polls (actually mostly panels) in detail, it appeared to me they had been rigged to have a No bias. We’re now at the point where the polling companies have to come closer to reality or they’ll be out of business after the vote. So I think what is reported today as ‘too close to call’ is in reality a clear Yes lead.
Presumably the pound will drop further against the dollar after the Yes vote. That gives anything priced in dollars a following wind.
Yes is immediately really bad for the entire London establishment and the City. That’s bad for the financial sector globally. It’s also bad for London property and builders.
But this is only a referendum and negotiations will drag on for years. We already have a coalition government that no-one voted for and nobody wanted. There’s no way any of that can survive. It ought to be a cakewalk for Labour but they’re looking more and more like Tory lite. So it looks like chaos until the May elections. If Labour can’t represent its supporters, the chaos will drag on past then.
How much of this will spill over into the US? That will dictate what happens to stock markets. I’m just reading ‘Soros by Soros’ (1995 book). What worries me is that Soros’s fund is supposed to be betting on a big fall in the US markets this year. Otherwise the US and Asia (China and India especially) look good. Soros would say to check your assumptions every day and adjust accordingly.
Meanwhile, an inspiring piece from George Monbiot today:
A yes vote in Scotland would unleash the most dangerous thing of all - hope