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Euro break up - good for Britain?
Artemis Gorgo
Posted: 03 December 2011 12:03:57(UTC)
#1

Joined: 11/08/2011(UTC)
Posts: 6

It looks as if the Euro leaders are going to have another go at trying to save the Euro. Opinions on the EU and its artefacts excites opinion here in the UK. But what is better for Britain economically - for the Euro to survive or for it to break up? And is the answer different when we look at it in purely political terms?
Robert Court
Posted: 03 December 2011 12:24:18(UTC)
#2

Joined: 22/08/2011(UTC)
Posts: 606

I believe that we now live in a very inter-connected world and that none of us should be pleased to see other economies fail as if an economic bloc fails it affects us all indirectly.

There is no point in creating wealth if nobody can afford to consume it and in that respect a good percentage of the world population are in this mess together; Britain may be an island but unless Britain can go back to producing all its own food and be self-relaint on energy then it cannot afford to be isolated if Britain wishes to prosper.

Is the answer different in purely political terms?

Yes, but only if you are interested in power plays as far as wishing to dominate other countries or fearful of other countries attempting to dominate you - and this is the fear (genuine or otherwise) that many in the UK latch onto.
Artemis Gorgo
Posted: 04 December 2011 07:19:31(UTC)
#3

Joined: 11/08/2011(UTC)
Posts: 6

I have sympathy for your views Robert. Yet when I look at the comments in response to articles in Citywire on the Euro and its problems I see many strong (extreme?) anti Brussels, anti Europe, anti German etc. reactions. Would Britain be better off, economically and politically, if the EU had never been created? Is the existence of the single currency relevant in answering this question? And even if it is not relevant, now that we have it can it be gotten rid off without damage to Britain at a delicate moment in our economy?

Given our weak economic health right now, what should we in Britain be hoping for out of the Merkel Sarkozy pending proposals for the euro?
Robert Court
Posted: 04 December 2011 08:52:45(UTC)
#4

Joined: 22/08/2011(UTC)
Posts: 606

If the EU had not been created would the UK have been better off? Who knows?

Maybe our Commonwealth trading partners would have wanted to buy more British cars when we'd bought more of their agricultural goods.

Politically? Again, I don't know but without the EU there is the possibility that Europe would have been less stable and we might have had at least one more war between western european countries since WW2.

Is the existence of the single currency relevant? Yes, even the USA is concerned about the situation and you'd think it would effect us more than the USA.

What should we be hoping for? An end to the present uncertainty, but this will take time either way - the eurozone could not be broken up overnight even if it wanted to and if kept the solution cannot be found overnight either as it shall need treaty changes and these things take time.

Let's hope that we are not in the same situation of total uncertainty this time next year.
Clive B
Posted: 05 December 2011 09:53:18(UTC)
#5

Joined: 25/11/2010(UTC)
Posts: 508

For the stability of the UK (banks etc.) we need the Euro to survive and be sorted out QUICKLY, but with Merkol/Sarkozy inventing more rules to advantage their own countries. (Yes, possible UK bias on my part there).

Quite why we would want to be deeper within such an undemocratic union as the EU is beyond me
-what gives Merkol/Sarkozy the right to keep having these private discussions where they decide the fate of 17 (or 27) countries ?
-what gives Merkol the right to dictate to the laughably "independent" ECB
etc
Robert Court
Posted: 05 December 2011 10:45:14(UTC)
#6

Joined: 22/08/2011(UTC)
Posts: 606

Clive B

At least I think we agree that it needs to be sorted out quickly, but I'd say that would be impossible due to the fact that there has to be an element of democracy and you can't make treaty changes without at least pretending to go through the democratic process.

There isn't even a 'let out' clause for countries to leave the eurozone; the only method is to leave the EU altogether (no bad thing you might say for some countries).

How democratic are we?

Apart from the freedom to complain re. freedom of speech very few citizens seem to have much say in the decision making process and there is certainly very little feeling of 'being involved'.

It's sad to say that many of us don't even vote in elections; is it apathy or a genuine feeling of hopelessness?

Some democracies (e.g. Australia) make it a legal obligation to vote; when so many millions died to leave us the gift of democracy it's strange that we don't appreciate it.

The tide of regulations coming from 'Brussels' aren't all evil and designed to enslave us - many people will have enjoyed better and safer working conditions and products as a result but then 'maybe' conditions were worse or better 'over there' than 'over here'.

I'm not in favour of over-regulation but then it's probably impossible to legislate for 'common sense' and UK law has a far more sensible legal base (common law, statutory law and case law) than continental (mainly Roman) law.

I used to joke that the EU was going to phase in driving on the right side of the road (lorries and buses first, before cars) but maybe one should write a list of all the good and bad things the EU have brought before just claiming its a dictatorship and nothing else.

One solution MIGHT be the introduction of dual currencies; the euro PLUS a local currency where EU debt was switched to the local currency at a fixed rate of exchange and would be then worth less in euro if the country devalued its existing currency BUT

Any NEW debt in euro would then be at a lower rate but cost more if the country devalued its own currency or at a higher interest rate if made in the new weaker currency where investors would want a greater return if the currency was weaker. The new euro debt could be issued by the ECB and only on the condition that the economic rules re. Maastricht were applied; if they failed the conditions the country would have to borrow its own currency at market rates.

Oh well, I'm not an economist but I feel that the only solution will involve some debt forgiveness FOR ALL OF US if the present crisis isn't going to continue indefinitely.
Graham Barlow
Posted: 05 December 2011 20:58:37(UTC)
#7

Joined: 09/03/2009(UTC)
Posts: 203

The members of the Euro are now when the currency has finally reached crisis point writing the rules of a single currency membership. Clearly this was an unmitigated disaster to proceed without it. in the first instant. Unless a 3 part Guarantee involving all 17 countries (Jointly & severally) the market will not back a wishy washy stitch up, which might be effective in years to come. Therefore let us examine the break up. If it is disorderly with no arrangements for debtor Banks and Bond holders. It will be a major disaster including UK Banks. This will wipe out the capital reserves of most exsposed European Banks If however a country wishes to change its currency with an orderly arrangement for its creditors, ie the Euro Bonds were rolled over giving time to pay, or were bought by the IMF with an IMF regime in situ ,then it could be done. Clearly it will take time, but the cost would be soon made up by having a more competetive currency. Greece for example could be the New holiday destination for Europe really competetive and could double its invisible exports in a season.. I agree with Papendreou a lot of the woes of Greece are inflicted by the endless Legislation coming out of Brussels with total disregard for the ever increasing costs of membership. Our contribution has now reached £50 Million per day . The costs of membership in regulatory terms on legislation on British Business in incalcuable. We would be far better off out of it all together, and I doubt that it would necessarily have a major effect on our trade. The Airbus couldnt fly without Britain. and the French are not going to stop selling us wine. Furthermore we could quite easily build our own Trains we dont need the Germans, you ask Bombardier.. I could write a Book about the iniqities of Brussels and why we should Not be involved but the Europhiles (bless em) are in a constant state of denial. I am sure if Germany and France came to Blows, they would still be advocating us getting even further involved.Their irrationality knows no bounds.
Robert Court
Posted: 05 December 2011 21:35:50(UTC)
#8

Joined: 22/08/2011(UTC)
Posts: 606

Bombardier is, I believe, a Canadian company that makes both railstock and small aeroplanes.

"Bombardier is headquartered in Montréal, Canada, and its shares (BBD) are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. In the fiscal year ended January 31, 2011, we posted revenues of $17.7 billion US."

There bonds have done rather well, but are too expensive for me to buy right now even though they came down in price recently;

the 6.125% 2021 costs about 95.12 to buy

the 7.25% 2016 is over par and costs about 104.28 to buy

A good CANADIAN company - not British!

Graham Barlow
Posted: 06 December 2011 10:32:39(UTC)
#9

Joined: 09/03/2009(UTC)
Posts: 203

Bombardier took over a British Train Building Company and it resides in DERBY, It does not matter where the share holders are, it is a straight investment in Britain. The market has optimistically believed that the ECB will underwrite the debt ,or a form of German Guarantee will be forthcoming. This does not seem to be on the Radar yet, hence Standard and Poors are considering a downgrade for the whole Euro ZoneThe Euro will not work unless Germany takes over the complete control of the Euro zone Countries. Some are blatantly corrupt and will agree to anything in the short run to tide them over with Germany's money. Ireland will find it impossible to live with 23% VAT when just over the border it is currently 20%. Historically German hegomony in Europe cannot be tolerated , and furthermore a central diktat from Brussells is the total negation of what I understand as Democracy. You are witnessing the end of the European project with its Hubris of a new created currency to rival the Dollar. The Politicans lie to their populations, and even Cameron is whistling in the Dark and hoping it will all go away, but it will not. It is fundementally flawed and cannot be fixed, and orderly break up will have to be engineered, without Germany I fear, as they are only interested in Germany inspite of all the lying rhetoric.
Robert Court
Posted: 06 December 2011 10:48:30(UTC)
#10

Joined: 22/08/2011(UTC)
Posts: 606

Graham Barlow

My apologies re. Bombardier; of course a foreign company giving jobs to Brits aka Ford is better than the jobs going away (unless, of course, the trains are being made cheaper and better elsewhere like almost everything else).

I believe your unfettered optimism re. the break up of the EU is unfounded and that this time next year we'll see the eurozone still alive and kicking with some treaty alterations to ensure countries can't borrow what they can't afford.

You could, however, be right and an orderly break up shall indeed have to be engineered in which case life shall still continue but with less influence from Germany.

Re. fundamentally flawed; isn't the whole system (including both the UK and USA) flawed when built on ever increasing debt ad infinitum?

I'd like the eurozone to survive as it suits me very nicely even though it's obviously in a mess and hadn't been properly thought through from conception.

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