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Sara G
Posted: 27 February 2021 14:01:28(UTC)
#276

Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
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Aminatidi;155736 wrote:
Sara G;155733 wrote:
RICA is on my watchlist. The BTC move got my attention, but some of their other strategies also look interesting. Having said that, I actually topped up PNL last week, so I am interested in Aminitidi reducing at this point.

An alternative to RICA might be PSH, which is on a 26% discount (HL numbers so treat with caution). Ackman has just opened a significant position that would pay off in the event of inflation leading to rising interest rates. I already hold some via AGT, but might consider a direct holding.


They did a webinar this week which was very interesting as they touched on some of these.

I still hold around 15% in PNL and it has done its job I just think Ruffer may have a few more tricks to try and the "gamble" is whether they'll work or if they're being too smart for their own good.

Oddly I'm spending some time right now trying to see if there's anything that I'd be comfortable with for that 15% that's in PNL and AVI Global is one I'm looking at as it seems like a trust on a discount holding lots of other holdings on a discount so perhaps one simple way to get access to all those little things you don't want to end up with 1% or 2% of.

Interested in your thoughts on AGT and if you've ever considered MIGO as that looks the closest "competition" in style i.e. buying unloved things on sale.


Thanks, will add the webinar to my list of things to watch. Hamish Baillie was on the Moneyweek podcast recently too, which may be of interest.

AGT is approaching core holding status in my SIPP. There aren't too many global ITs with a strong value style, and I like the margin of safety offered by the double discount. I prefer it to MIGO which is trading almost at par, and does not seem to go for the less mainstream holding companies that AGT owns, and which would be harder for PIs to get access to. Also, just glancing at the top holdings in MIGO, some of them have already recovered somewhat with discounts narrowing - e.g. VOF, which I sold recently. I wonder where the managers will find their next opportunities? It would be one to look at when discounts are widening I think.
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2 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Robin on 27/02/2021(UTC), Aminatidi on 27/02/2021(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 27 February 2021 14:26:33(UTC)
#277

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
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Sara G;155744 wrote:
Thanks, will add the webinar to my list of things to watch. Hamish Baillie was on the Moneyweek podcast recently too, which may be of interest.

AGT is approaching core holding status in my SIPP. There aren't too many global ITs with a strong value style, and I like the margin of safety offered by the double discount. I prefer it to MIGO which is trading almost at par, and does not seem to go for the less mainstream holding companies that AGT owns, and which would be harder for PIs to get access to. Also, just glancing at the top holdings in MIGO, some of them have already recovered somewhat with discounts narrowing - e.g. VOF, which I sold recently. I wonder where the managers will find their next opportunities? It would be one to look at when discounts are widening I think.


Thank you and yes the 10% discount on the trust itself is appealing.

I think it was Kepper or QuotedData but I was reading a lengthy analysis of them and their holdings and as much as a lot of it goes over my head I can see my inner big-boy being channelled in thinking that buying things at 40% off sounds sensible.

That double discount didn't seem to count for much last March though?

I do wonder sometimes whether I restrict myself with trying to stick to ITs but god knows how I'd cope with 3000 funds to choose from.

Off to seek out the Moneyweek podcast!
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Sara G on 27/02/2021(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 27 February 2021 15:55:25(UTC)
#273

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,127
Apostate;155721 wrote:
I think if you charted in the Ruffer IT you might see why the share could be considered "expensive" right now.


Since Dec Y/E 2019 (ie about 14 months)

PNL +3.88%
CGT +5.36%
Ruffer +22.67%

Since Dec Y/E 2020 (ie about 2 months)

PNL -2.54%
CGT -1.7%
RICA +4.94%

Premium to NAV
CGT is about 2% premium
PNL is about 1.4% premium
RICA is about 2.5% premium


Please explain how this could be considered expensive (ie share price versus NAV) when comparing versus last year's and this year's performance.
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Mr GL
Posted: 27 February 2021 16:00:11(UTC)
#262

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,127
Apostate;155657 wrote:


A plunge in BTC could see a real run on the share price.
.



On their call this week they mentioned Bitcoin exposure of approximately 3% (which the have 'for free' as they halved-ish their stake after it had doubled in value)

IF Bitcoin were to go to zero overnight the most RICA NAV would lose is... wait for it... 3%


A 3% overnight fall in RICA could not really be considered a 'run'
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Aminatidi on 28/02/2021(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 27 February 2021 16:14:36(UTC)
#279

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,127
PNL and CGT and RICA all are on the surface very similar looking in that they own substantial % of NAV in Linkers and/or TIPs

PNL own alongside their TIPS/Linkers a lot of 'quality' stocks and a chunk of cash chunk of gold https://www.patplc.co.uk...r=2021-02-04-103344-253

CGT own alongside their TIPs/Linkers a decent chunk of good yielding and somewhat inflation linked property stocks and other interesting smatter of equities and a good chunk of cash + small gold https://www.capitalgeari...aring-trust-jan2021.pdf

RICA own alongside their TIPs/Linkers 'Value' (ie post covid recovery stocks) Gold and Cash AND Illiquid strategies and options. https://www.ruffer.co.uk...fund-report-Jan2021.pdf

Worth noting Index Linkers and TIPs year to date are generally down anywhere between 4% and 7% mainly due to the interest rate risk in linkers (Duration) are nominal rates have risen in normal fixed rate government bonds (see Warren Buffet recent comment on government bonds)

PNL and CGT do not hedge their interest rate risk on their TIPs/Linkers (as far as I can see they make nop mention of option strategies or hedging) and have no doubt lost money on these and hence their recent performance

RICA said on the call this week that their option hedging of interest rate risk has year to date offset their losses on linkers/TIPs due to interest rate moves.

RICA have done a very smart job over this last year or so. They thrive in volatile markets. If you think the recent interest rate induced falls are no over then maybe RICA has had it's time in the sun.

But IF you think there is still room for VAR / Interest Rates / Volatility shocks then RICA is probably a better bet.
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6 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Sara G on 27/02/2021(UTC), Tim D on 27/02/2021(UTC), Jeff Liddiard on 27/02/2021(UTC), Dexi on 27/02/2021(UTC), Guest on 28/02/2021(UTC), Aminatidi on 28/02/2021(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 27 February 2021 16:29:12(UTC)
#278

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,127
Sara G;155733 wrote:


An alternative to RICA might be PSH, which is on a 26% discount (HL numbers so treat with caution). Ackman has just opened a significant position that would pay off in the event of inflation leading to rising interest rates. I already hold some via AGT, but might consider a direct holding.



I would not group (as an alternative) PSH with RICA - quite different risk profiles. Yes PSH are interesting and seemingly cheap versus recent returns. CGT had it as a top 5 holding last year (they bought a chunk during the covid crash) but slipped out of their top 5 recently.
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4 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Sara G on 27/02/2021(UTC), Jeff Liddiard on 27/02/2021(UTC), Guest on 28/02/2021(UTC), Aminatidi on 28/02/2021(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 22 October 2021 16:05:57(UTC)
#280

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
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Latest Quarterly.

Quarterly Report
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2 users thanked Aminatidi for this post.
Tim D on 22/10/2021(UTC), Ad B on 22/10/2021(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 22 October 2021 16:36:42(UTC)
#281

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,127
Aminatidi;191507 wrote:
Latest Quarterly.

Quarterly Report


Read it - interesting, but doesn't make me want to buy back into PNL... although looking at the following stats, and taking on board I recently bought back into CGT, maybe I should not be so sniffy...

currently
Capital Gearing CGT Diversified 5.2%
Personal Assets PNL Diversified 0.0%
Ruffer RICA Diversified Hedged 7.3%

YTD
CGT +6.8%
PNL +8.27%
RICA +16.7%

Since Dec 2019
CGT +14.5%
PNL +15.4%
RICA +36.4%

Dividend Yld
CGT 0.89%
PNL 1.1%
RICA 0.6%
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3 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Aminatidi on 22/10/2021(UTC), Ad B on 22/10/2021(UTC), Guest on 23/10/2021(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 22 October 2021 16:58:37(UTC)
#282

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
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Likewise (I hold all my defensive all-weather in CGT and RICA) but I figure read as many thoughts as you can and not just from the stuff you have money in so probably a bias towards.
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Mr GL on 22/10/2021(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 06 November 2021 09:26:50(UTC)
#283

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
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So I'm sitting on 10% cash plus new money and whilst there's no rush to do anything with it, if I did anything with it I think I have enough across CGT and RICA to consider building up a PNL holding again.

Part of me sees it as putting money in the nuclear bunker but a little part of me sees quite a lot of equity overlap with my sizeable Fundsmith holding.

Interested in thoughts on PNL v cash and the overlap part.

No rush as I have to say that 10% extra in cash feels quite good :)
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