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mark spurrier
Posted: 07 November 2021 10:13:44(UTC)
#912

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@smg8
What I have noticed is that the trusts that were doing well three years ago and were put in the shade by BG, have continued to do as they did and the BG offerings have gone like a firework around them.

What I never understood was why people were buying BG US trust on an 8% premium when BG American OIEC was there too.
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4 users thanked mark spurrier for this post.
smg8 on 07/11/2021(UTC), Harry Trout on 07/11/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 07/11/2021(UTC), Guest on 12/11/2021(UTC)
Keith Cobby
Posted: 07 November 2021 10:50:31(UTC)
#913

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I think it depends on your time horizon, and this seems to shorten over time. SMT has returned 1,200% over the past decade, and PHI & EWI over 500%. I woudn't therefore describe the performance of the latter as dire. Recent performance has been less good but all investments will have good and less good periods. I suppose chasing momentum is a strategy, just not for me.
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6 users thanked Keith Cobby for this post.
Tim D on 07/11/2021(UTC), Mr Helpful on 07/11/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 07/11/2021(UTC), smg8 on 07/11/2021(UTC), Dan L on 07/11/2021(UTC), Mike L on 12/11/2021(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:02:47(UTC)
#906

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smg8;193701 wrote:


It does raise a broader question of why people are so tribalistic about their investments, its just a fund at the end of the day. I like hearing the downsides of any investment I hold from others point of view to make sure I am not deluding myself with my decisions, so why people get so angsty about an alternative viewpoint (whether that is on Fundsmith or anything else) is beyond me.


Some posters do seem to take it very personally if one of their favoured investments is dissed or one that they don't like is mentioned as worthy of consideration. The reasons underlying this are most likely psychological. But it does seem to me very odd to care what anyone thinks about what is in your portfolio. Anyone is more than welcome to have a go at what I have in mine and, who knows, I might learn something.
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smg8 on 07/11/2021(UTC)
TJL
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:14:10(UTC)
#914

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It was the speed with which sentiment changed when SMT and BG were off the boil a while ago which intrigued me - it sounded like panic set in and people were baling out en masse.
Then BG became a bit of a dirty word - didn't understand it myself.
Whatever happened to long term investing and buy and hold?
I make pro SMT comments sometimes because I have been a happy long term holder (USA and PHI too), but I hope I'm not a 'gloater'.
It will be interesting to see if Fundsmith suffers the same fate if performance falters for a while at some point in the future - no doubt there are some who just can't wait.
I don't currently hold EWI, but I bet it (and Monks) will pay off for the patient and strategic.
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D Bergman on 07/11/2021(UTC), smg8 on 07/11/2021(UTC), ALAN P on 08/11/2021(UTC)
Keith Stewart
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:23:44(UTC)
#905

Joined: 24/05/2019(UTC)
Posts: 277
smg8;193701 wrote:
Keith Stewart;193676 wrote:
45 pages of naval gazing.
Yet Fundsmith keeps doing the business year after year.
Let's look at this year's laggards - BNKR, MNKS, FCIT, EWI, SAIN and the hopeless Linsell Train Global.
Not a mention of their poor performance but just the usual vultures circling hoping for dear old Terry and Julian to fail.
20% ytd.
Suck it up guys and gals, there's still two months to go.


There does seem to have been plenty of mention of LTGE, and a number of people have sold. Perhaps there aren’t enough holders any more to result in ongoing discussion!

But I agree there has been a deathly silence about the dire performance of EWI, and poor performance of Monks. I found when BG stuff was doing well there was lots of almost gloating from holders (why hold that boring stuff when you can hold stuff that goes up 100% in a year), and certainly a “Baillie Gifford can do no wrong” type vibe to pockets of the forum. The fact a lot of their funds were quite average until 2020 was an unpopular viewpoint, and the reversion to that this year hasn’t attracted much comment.

It does raise a broader question of why people are so tribalistic about their investments, its just a fund at the end of the day. I like hearing the downsides of any investment I hold from others point of view to make sure I am not deluding myself with my decisions, so why people get so angsty about an alternative viewpoint (whether that is on Fundsmith or anything else) is beyond me.


BG stuff did very little until 2015/2016.
People have been suggesting using MNKS as a 'generalist global trust'. Same for FCIT and BNKR.
Fidelity Index World Acc 23% ytd.
I'll stick to my 'generalist global tracker' thanks.
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D Bergman
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:24:39(UTC)
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smg8;193701 wrote:


But I agree there has been a deathly silence about the dire performance of EWI, and poor performance of Monks. I found when BG stuff was doing well there was lots of almost gloating from holders (why hold that boring stuff when you can hold stuff that goes up 100% in a year), and certainly a “Baillie Gifford can do no wrong” type vibe to pockets of the forum. The fact a lot of their funds were quite average until 2020 was an unpopular viewpoint, and the reversion to that this year hasn’t attracted much comment.

It does raise a broader question of why people are so tribalistic about their investments, its just a fund at the end of the day. I like hearing the downsides of any investment I hold from others point of view to make sure I am not deluding myself with my decisions, so why people get so angsty about an alternative viewpoint (whether that is on Fundsmith or anything else) is beyond me.


Interesting point re EWI: if you look at the past 10 years' performance, it has has been almost exactly the same as FS (whisper who dares!), even taking into account the "dire" last year (approx 20% compared to FS's 19.5%, Nov 2011 - Nov 2021). Even 3 & 1 year performances are reasonable - it's only YTD (and especially Feb - Nov 2021) that have been bad.

So how will we react if FS has a really bad 6 months as opposed to similar to a tracker?

I know that my interest is not how well FS does in a bull market, but how it will compare in a bear pit.
This, of course, is what none of us really know.

As you say, these are all just funds, and I don't think any of us on this forum will go hungry if they go down in value.
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Dan L on 07/11/2021(UTC), smg8 on 07/11/2021(UTC), ALAN P on 08/11/2021(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:26:04(UTC)
#915

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TJL;193725 wrote:
It was the speed with which sentiment changed when SMT and BG were off the boil a while ago which intrigued me - it sounded like panic set in and people were baling out en masse.
Then BG became a bit of a dirty word - didn't understand it myself.
Whatever happened to long term investing and buy and hold?
I make pro SMT comments sometimes because I have been a happy long term holder (USA and PHI too), but I hope I'm not a 'gloater'.
It will be interesting to see if Fundsmith suffers the same fate if performance falters for a while at some point in the future - no doubt there are some who just can't wait.
I don't currently hold EWI, but I bet it (and Monks) will pay off for the patient and strategic.

I banked some very solid profits on some of the fizzier BG offerings in Q1, retaining only MNKS, SAIN, and BG Managed, but have since been re-accumulating SMT. This isn't a decision that I regret.
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smg8 on 07/11/2021(UTC)
Keith Stewart
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:34:16(UTC)
#900

Joined: 24/05/2019(UTC)
Posts: 277
mark spurrier;193700 wrote:
Keith Stewart;193694 wrote:

Fundsmith won't be doing anything if the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow have a lost decade as in 2000 to 2010.
Another reason you might want a plain vanilla global tracker.


maybe, but what an index does and what a 30 stock portfoilio does may not be the same.

For me, the key thing is that the investee companies wont be having a lost decade. They will still have high ROCe and high FCF. They will still be investing and growing that business.

A plain vanilla tracker tracks :) Very easy for that to have zero movement but there be absolute mayhem within the constituents. Apple could go bust and The Noddy healthcare Company could go from IPO to $3TN and the S&P not move.

The DOW isn't really an index you can use, it is a price weighted joke. Stocks with the highest share price have the highest weighting.

United Health is 8% weight on the DOW - if they did a 1 for 4 consolidation they could be 32% :)



Fundsmith was down about 5% against the market in September.
Was firmly fourth quartile over 3 months.
Facebook, PayPal and Nike have seen varying degrees of drops and recovery.
You know the probability of actively managed strategies outperforming trackers over any length of time.
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Bulldog Drummond on 07/11/2021(UTC), smg8 on 07/11/2021(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:39:31(UTC)
#916

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I totally forgot the word “recent” when referring to EWI performance which gave my post a totally different complexion! It was more that people are commenting on Fundsmith over 5-6 weeks performance, but not the 9% in 1 year or minus 10% YTD of EWI say.

As others have mentioned though there is indeed a propensity here (and including myself of course) to look a bit short term, or indeed to simply find a timescale that fits the narrative!

Interesting chart though;
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4 users thanked smg8 for this post.
D Bergman on 07/11/2021(UTC), Keith Cobby on 07/11/2021(UTC), Monty Claret on 07/11/2021(UTC), Mike L on 12/11/2021(UTC)
Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 07 November 2021 11:47:41(UTC)
#917

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
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smg8;193738 wrote:
I totally forgot the word “recent” when referring to EWI performance which gave my post a totally different complexion! It was more that people are commenting on Fundsmith over 5-6 weeks performance, but not the 9% in 1 year or minus 10% YTD of EWI say.

As others have mentioned though there is indeed a propensity here (and including myself of course) to look a bit short term, or indeed to simply find a timescale that fits the narrative!

Interesting chart though;

Indeed. I tend to look at 3 and 5 year numbers. EWI seems well ahead of FS on those. My point here - I agree that it's ad nauseam - is that FS had very good returns in its early days, but has been a bit lacklustre in more recent years. 1 year performance is the same as a FTSE tracker.
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D Bergman on 07/11/2021(UTC)
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