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MarkSp
Posted: 19 January 2022 16:48:57(UTC)
#1078

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,183

Thanks: 282 times
Was thanked: 5807 time(s) in 1721 post(s)
Ramondo;203936 wrote:
[quote=D Bergman;203932]Interesting question.

As of today, FS shares have lost just over 9% of their value in January. This loss, if unchanged by the end of the month, is the largest monthly loss in 11 years.
Not a great feeling as over 25% of my portfolio is in FS.

Does this mean that the bull run is over for FS, or is this just a pause before rising again?

My gut feeling (for what it's worth) is that the steady increases will be much slower, but will resume.
But I really have no idea.[/quot

The share price would seem to have plateaued for the moment?
The next few days and early next week will be interesting to say the least

Has the growth to value cycle taken Mr Smith unawares? I doubt it, one reason could be the size of the fund, not nimble at all, it's like a super tanker now!

If the plateau continues next week, I'll be drip adding to the fund.



If you put 10k into ATT and HSBA on 1 January


ATT you now have £8061
HSBA - 11271

It is very strange at the moment. There are some extraordinarily high volumes in some stocks and other are very quiet and swinging around all over the place.

The uS tech sale seems to be indiscriminate - at some stage punters will buy the good names but it is going to be stock specific and not sector wide.

My view anyway
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8 users thanked MarkSp for this post.
Sheerman on 19/01/2022(UTC), Monty Claret on 19/01/2022(UTC), Guest on 19/01/2022(UTC), Ramondo on 19/01/2022(UTC), Robin on 19/01/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 19/01/2022(UTC), SrB on 19/01/2022(UTC), Raj K on 20/01/2022(UTC)
Keith Stewart
Posted: 20 January 2022 17:49:27(UTC)
#1076

Joined: 24/05/2019(UTC)
Posts: 277

Thanks: 48 times
Was thanked: 675 time(s) in 212 post(s)
Ramondo;203936 wrote:
[quote=D Bergman;203932]Interesting question.

As of today, FS shares have lost just over 9% of their value in January. This loss, if unchanged by the end of the month, is the largest monthly loss in 11 years.
Not a great feeling as over 25% of my portfolio is in FS.

Does this mean that the bull run is over for FS, or is this just a pause before rising again?

My gut feeling (for what it's worth) is that the steady increases will be much slower, but will resume.
But I really have no idea.[/quot

The share price would seem to have plateaued for the moment?
The next few days and early next week will be interesting to say the least

Has the growth to value cycle taken Mr Smith unawares? I doubt it, one reason could be the size of the fund, not nimble at all, it's like a super tanker now!

If the plateau continues next week, I'll be drip adding to the fund.



Last week i switched my last holdings into Fidelity Index World Acc.
I invested in Fundsmith for the widely promoted view, especially by Terry Smith, that it is a defensive fund.
Dropping nearly 10% in a couple of weeks, is not defensive in my view.
Having seen Linsell Train's abysmal performance last year and both PayPal and Unilever getting clobbered i decided a US heavy developed world tracker would be my set and forget core holding.
My own portfolio is now -
70% Fidelity Index World Acc
20% HVPE
10% JGGI

I like Terry Smith and hope Fundsmith keeps defying it's critics. Terry has been doing it for 20 years and i hope he does it for another 20.
I just want to replicate what the index gives me. It will be average but average should be fine and dandy over the long term.
The secret to investing is time scale, not tinkering and compounding.
I suggest a low cost accumulating global equity tracker and a few decades should achieve that for everyone.
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7 users thanked Keith Stewart for this post.
Mr Spock on 20/01/2022(UTC), Nickc on 20/01/2022(UTC), smg8 on 21/01/2022(UTC), New Simon T on 21/01/2022(UTC), Greylocks on 21/01/2022(UTC), Chans on 21/01/2022(UTC), Phil 2 on 22/01/2022(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 20 January 2022 17:55:11(UTC)
#1077

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,819
Keith Stewart;204130 wrote:
Ramondo;203936 wrote:
[quote=D Bergman;203932]Interesting question.

As of today, FS shares have lost just over 9% of their value in January. This loss, if unchanged by the end of the month, is the largest monthly loss in 11 years.
Not a great feeling as over 25% of my portfolio is in FS.

Does this mean that the bull run is over for FS, or is this just a pause before rising again?

My gut feeling (for what it's worth) is that the steady increases will be much slower, but will resume.
But I really have no idea.[/quot

The share price would seem to have plateaued for the moment?
The next few days and early next week will be interesting to say the least

Has the growth to value cycle taken Mr Smith unawares? I doubt it, one reason could be the size of the fund, not nimble at all, it's like a super tanker now!

If the plateau continues next week, I'll be drip adding to the fund.



Last week i switched my last holdings into Fidelity Index World Acc.
I invested in Fundsmith for the widely promoted view, especially by Terry Smith, that it is a defensive fund.
Dropping nearly 10% in a couple of weeks, is not defensive in my view.
Having seen Linsell Train's abysmal performance last year and both PayPal and Unilever getting clobbered i decided a US heavy developed world tracker would be my set and forget core holding.
My own portfolio is now -
70% Fidelity Index World Acc
20% HVPE
10% JGGI

I like Terry Smith and hope Fundsmith keeps defying it's critics. Terry has been doing it for 20 years and i hope he does it for another 20.
I just want to replicate what the index gives me. It will be average but average should be fine and dandy over the long term.
The secret to investing is time scale, not tinkering and compounding.
I suggest a low cost accumulating global equity tracker and a few decades should achieve that for everyone.


Dont you think you will see 10% drops in world trakers? I think you most likely will and more during an investment journey
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Aminatidi
Posted: 20 January 2022 18:01:19(UTC)
#1081

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 5,865

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He seems really impressed with Unilever management.

https://www.fundsmith.co...ith_unilever_and_gsk.pdf
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2 users thanked Aminatidi for this post.
Frank Marquis on 20/01/2022(UTC), D Bergman on 20/01/2022(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 21 January 2022 07:59:59(UTC)
#1084

Joined: 26/04/2020(UTC)
Posts: 3,366
Aminatidi;204134 wrote:
He seems really impressed with Unilever management.

https://www.fundsmith.co...ith_unilever_and_gsk.pdf


He could just sell it.....

This will be controversial with the hardcore Fundsmith fans, but do you think Terry is ok? Buying Amazon after saying he won't, then entering a new position and selling it within a few weeks and now a public spat with Unilever. All within a few weeks of some unsavoury details of his personal life becoming public. Could just be a coincidence but that all seems a bit odd!
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New Simon T
Posted: 21 January 2022 09:37:39(UTC)
#1083

Joined: 19/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,239
Aminatidi;204134 wrote:
He seems really impressed with Unilever management.

https://www.fundsmith.co...ith_unilever_and_gsk.pdf


I was in the "lucky" position of being a consultant (computers) at nearly all the firms mentioned in that letter - they are desperately trying to move their culture from more of a factory orientated one into more of a marketing one (it seems)
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Harland Kearney
Posted: 21 January 2022 22:50:45(UTC)
#1082

Joined: 23/03/2018(UTC)
Posts: 150

Thanks: 953 times
Was thanked: 242 time(s) in 103 post(s)
Aminatidi;204134 wrote:
He seems really impressed with Unilever's management.

https://www.fundsmith.co...ith_unilever_and_gsk.pdf


I find this confusing, if he is so pessimistic or upset about the company, why not sell it?

The fund's performance has suffered far worse than my other holdings but it is somewhat unsurprising with some of the holdings taking an absolutely battering since the start of the month.

I will cautiously be watching, I do plan to top up my holding, but I think things (the market as a whole) has further to fall still. In the long term (as we should be thinking) I am not concerned with the fund. I think Terry will pull through.
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1 user thanked Harland Kearney for this post.
smg8 on 22/01/2022(UTC)
Neminem Laedit
Posted: 22 January 2022 03:50:59(UTC)
#1085

Joined: 17/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,471

Thanks: 1010 times
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smg8;204208 wrote:


This will be controversial with the hardcore Fundsmith fans, but do you think Terry is ok? Buying Amazon after saying he won't, then entering a new position and selling it within a few weeks and now a public spat with Unilever. All within a few weeks of some unsavoury details of his personal life becoming public. Could just be a coincidence but that all seems a bit odd!


There were some interviews he did last year, where.... um, he seemed clearly "worse for wear".

But I don't see how that has much bearing on performance. FS is not a one-man-band, and the succession plans seem robust.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vC-MAuFbmvA

...Hic !
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1 user thanked Neminem Laedit for this post.
smg8 on 22/01/2022(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 22 January 2022 07:23:25(UTC)
#1086

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,183

Thanks: 282 times
Was thanked: 5807 time(s) in 1721 post(s)
Neminem Laedit;204447 wrote:
smg8;204208 wrote:


This will be controversial with the hardcore Fundsmith fans, but do you think Terry is ok? Buying Amazon after saying he won't, then entering a new position and selling it within a few weeks and now a public spat with Unilever. All within a few weeks of some unsavoury details of his personal life becoming public. Could just be a coincidence but that all seems a bit odd!


There were some interviews he did last year, where.... um, he seemed clearly "worse for wear".

But I don't see how that has much bearing on performance. FS is not a one-man-band, and the succession plans seem robust.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vC-MAuFbmvA

...Hic !


i would be really careful with comments like this. TS is no stranger to the Courts.

I have just watched these again and I know how Teams calls can be tricky. he doesn't sound drunk to me
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2 users thanked MarkSp for this post.
smg8 on 22/01/2022(UTC), Guest on 02/02/2022(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 22 January 2022 07:30:50(UTC)
#1087

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,183

Thanks: 282 times
Was thanked: 5807 time(s) in 1721 post(s)
@smg

Interesting. I can't think of any other fund that says "we are buying a position in something" while they are still doing it so I guess we will never know how common the activity is. I guess others, if the price runs away from them just end up with a 0.01% holding but that breaks the rules so, he is going to sell.

Amazon is an interesting game.That business model has been changing. It is becoming less a retailer and more a retail platform the less they try and sell themselves, the better the profitability. It has changed, my views have changed about it and TS views have changed.

Was he too late? I think we are now entering the profit story - two years ago would have been better but...there we go
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5 users thanked MarkSp for this post.
Robin on 22/01/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 22/01/2022(UTC), smg8 on 22/01/2022(UTC), Chans on 23/01/2022(UTC), Andrew59 on 01/02/2022(UTC)
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