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Fundsmith Performance
Aminatidi
Posted: 22 January 2022 08:35:58(UTC)

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 5,865

How are people seeing the past week or twos drop in Fundsmith v other funds and in the context of what should be the long term?

I know the month isn't over yet but I think this will be the worst month since its inception.
bédé
Posted: 22 January 2022 08:49:52(UTC)

Joined: 26/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 7,895

Aminatidi;204454 wrote:
I know the month isn't over yet but I think this will be the worst month since its inception.
It's inception is debateable. Mensis Ianurarius, goes waaay back; Januarius as the start of the year from about 45 BCE.
We've had many bad months since then. So please excuse a touch of levity.
smg8
Posted: 22 January 2022 09:40:59(UTC)

Joined: 26/04/2020(UTC)
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Aminatidi;204454 wrote:
How are people seeing the past week or twos drop in Fundsmith v other funds and in the context of what should be the long term?

I know the month isn't over yet but I think this will be the worst month since its inception.


Dare I say it, but it's done exactly what I thought it would - it's dropped as hard as other expensive quality funds that have shown far more upside over the last 3 years.

You can look at a subset of quality funds, sort them by PE ratio and that will directly reflect in their fall for the year broadly speaking.

Blue Whale, Blackrock Unconstrained; PE 35-40 odd, dropped 12% odd
Fundsmith, Threadneedle Global Focus, Rathbone Global Opps etc; PE 30-35 odd, dropped 10% odd
Cheap quality such as Artemis Global Select, Morgan Stanley Global Brands; PE 20-25, dropped 5-6%

I suppose the question you need to ask yourself is (a) does it matter? With a 10 year time horizon are you going to look back at what a fund did from 4th to 21st Jan 2022 and be bothered by it?


5 users thanked smg8 for this post.
Aminatidi on 22/01/2022(UTC), MarkSp on 22/01/2022(UTC), Mr Spock on 22/01/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 22/01/2022(UTC), Harland Kearney on 22/01/2022(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 22 January 2022 09:58:29(UTC)

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 5,865

Oh it sucks but as you say it's there or there abouts with anything else doing anything similar.

If I "only" had 10% in it I might be tempted to drip in some more not so sure with almost 30% in it and that nagging question of passives that's still in the background.

Actually quite happy with how I've handled this so far (as in doing nothing) which is perhaps credit to hopefully finally just about getting allocations right and also a tip off here which was to look at the chart not at the £££ when it's not going so well.

The £££ hurt because it's actual real money even if I don't need it right now.

-2.25% feels very different psychologically.
1 user thanked Aminatidi for this post.
smg8 on 22/01/2022(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 22 January 2022 10:14:42(UTC)

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I theorised elsewhere that lindsell train global wouldn’t be a silver bullet in a sell off, and am happy to see I was completely wrong 😂 having left them off the list of how various things have done so far I can see they are only down 2.3% which is good going comparatively.

Don’t forget (along with us all looking at FAR too short a timescale) performance is relative to the index rather than absolute for most of us. As in if people didn’t have Fundsmith the alternative isn’t cash it’s more likely a global tracker. So these funds above are only 0.5% to 5/6% behind where people would be if more neutral. For now……
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Aminatidi on 22/01/2022(UTC), Monty Claret on 22/01/2022(UTC), Mr Spock on 22/01/2022(UTC), Harland Kearney on 22/01/2022(UTC), Chans on 23/01/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 29/01/2022(UTC)
Mr Spock
Posted: 22 January 2022 10:25:39(UTC)

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smg8;204475 wrote:
Aminatidi;204454 wrote:
How are people seeing the past week or twos drop in Fundsmith v other funds and in the context of what should be the long term?

I know the month isn't over yet but I think this will be the worst month since its inception.


Dare I say it, but it's done exactly what I thought it would - it's dropped as hard as other expensive quality funds that have shown far more upside over the last 3 years.

You can look at a subset of quality funds, sort them by PE ratio and that will directly reflect in their fall for the year broadly speaking.

Blue Whale, Blackrock Unconstrained; PE 35-40 odd, dropped 12% odd
Fundsmith, Threadneedle Global Focus, Rathbone Global Opps etc; PE 30-35 odd, dropped 10% odd
Cheap quality such as Artemis Global Select, Morgan Stanley Global Brands; PE 20-25, dropped 5-6%

I suppose the question you need to ask yourself is (a) does it matter? With a 10 year time horizon are you going to look back at what a fund did from 4th to 21st Jan 2022 and be bothered by it?




RL Global Select down ~3% YTD. Wish I had bought more…
1 user thanked Mr Spock for this post.
smg8 on 22/01/2022(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 22 January 2022 10:27:20(UTC)

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 5,865

Yeah I was looking at L&G Global 100 yesterday as a time like this is when I guess it's interesting to see how passive does v active.

Nearly 30% of that fund is in Microsoft and Apple which would have me shitting bricks but the fund is down -4.99 YTD.

There's times I think it's easier to give up even trying to work it out :)
1 user thanked Aminatidi for this post.
Chris1986 on 22/01/2022(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 22 January 2022 10:34:08(UTC)

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Federico F;204488 wrote:
smg8;204475 wrote:
Aminatidi;204454 wrote:
How are people seeing the past week or twos drop in Fundsmith v other funds and in the context of what should be the long term?

I know the month isn't over yet but I think this will be the worst month since its inception.


Dare I say it, but it's done exactly what I thought it would - it's dropped as hard as other expensive quality funds that have shown far more upside over the last 3 years.

You can look at a subset of quality funds, sort them by PE ratio and that will directly reflect in their fall for the year broadly speaking.

Blue Whale, Blackrock Unconstrained; PE 35-40 odd, dropped 12% odd
Fundsmith, Threadneedle Global Focus, Rathbone Global Opps etc; PE 30-35 odd, dropped 10% odd
Cheap quality such as Artemis Global Select, Morgan Stanley Global Brands; PE 20-25, dropped 5-6%

I suppose the question you need to ask yourself is (a) does it matter? With a 10 year time horizon are you going to look back at what a fund did from 4th to 21st Jan 2022 and be bothered by it?




RL Global Select down ~3% YTD. Wish I had bought more…


PE ratio 16.

Fidelity Fast Global up 10%, PE ratio 10. The pattern continues!

The fidelity fund is interesting as he can short stocks too, so has had some great returns from that. The thing that puts me off is I know the manager wants out and that always causes hesitation for me.

I believe I’m right in saying the royal London fund has outperformed in downmarkets 100% of the time since the strategy inception 20 years ago.
4 users thanked smg8 for this post.
Mr Spock on 22/01/2022(UTC), Chans on 23/01/2022(UTC), Nickc on 25/01/2022(UTC), Elland Road on 01/02/2022(UTC)
Raj K
Posted: 22 January 2022 10:38:13(UTC)

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
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I think many of us need to go back and work out what type of investors we are.

In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine from Ben Graham or Warren Buffett cant remember

If you are a holder of Fundsmith and a long term investor and you think the companies are good but you currently believe they might be overvalued, wait until the market or the fund corrects to a valuation that you would be more comfortable with and add some more, be patient. I assume many of you invested in it becuase you believed the way they select companies makes sense, it certainly did to me and still does. If it corrects by 10-15% you are all questioning if it is doing its job. Is this for real? Remember Smith said he looks at the value of the businesses, these share prices are beyond their control.




7 users thanked Raj K for this post.
Chris1986 on 22/01/2022(UTC), Aminatidi on 22/01/2022(UTC), smg8 on 22/01/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 22/01/2022(UTC), Frank Marquis on 22/01/2022(UTC), Harland Kearney on 23/01/2022(UTC), Dennis . on 02/02/2022(UTC)
Frank Marquis
Posted: 25 January 2022 12:02:00(UTC)

Joined: 14/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 104

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New webinar

https://youtu.be/ztiQlJjGQJ4

Not much new, most interesting for me were the additions to the investible universe, the in and out on the undisclosed stock (due to liquidity) and more info on the Amazon purchase.
2 users thanked Frank Marquis for this post.
Raj K on 25/01/2022(UTC), Joe Soap on 25/01/2022(UTC)
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