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I3 and DEC
MarkSp
Posted: 24 August 2024 09:23:38(UTC)
#11

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,176

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Shame about I3. It was only a matter of time but a very quick return on my £15k
2 users thanked MarkSp for this post.
Newbie on 24/08/2024(UTC), Phil 2 on 24/08/2024(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 24 August 2024 10:36:13(UTC)
#12

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,107

MarkSp;316766 wrote:
Shame about I3. It was only a matter of time but a very quick return on my £15k


Good work there. I still hold DEC and topped up again yesterday as SP has bombed again, seemingly because the market doesn’t understand or rate the latest acquisition of assets, amongst other things.

ENOG (Energean) is also down in the doldrums again, as usual it’s mainly down to overblown fears about the Eastern Mediterranean. They’ve recovered slightly recently but still (probably!) worth considering if you’re neither a widow nor an orphan.
MarkSp
Posted: 25 August 2024 10:51:51(UTC)
#13

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,176

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Was thanked: 5797 time(s) in 1715 post(s)
Phil 2;316775 wrote:
MarkSp;316766 wrote:
Shame about I3. It was only a matter of time but a very quick return on my £15k


Good work there. I still hold DEC and topped up again yesterday as SP has bombed again, seemingly because the market doesn’t understand or rate the latest acquisition of assets, amongst other things.

ENOG (Energean) is also down in the doldrums again, as usual it’s mainly down to overblown fears about the Eastern Mediterranean. They’ve recovered slightly recently but still (probably!) worth considering if you’re neither a widow nor an orphan.


Why would a us gas driller be taking a caning?

Harris looks likely to beat Trump as The Donald plays to a smaller and smaller set of increasingly die-hard acolytes
Gas prices are in the toilet
Gas storage is full
Canada has massive liquefaction capacity coming on stream in Q4

Doesn’t look great and Diamondback
, Exxon and Valero hit the top 10 s&p fallers last week.

A bit of frost will cure it.
2 users thanked MarkSp for this post.
Newbie on 25/08/2024(UTC), Phil 2 on 25/08/2024(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 25 August 2024 12:47:48(UTC)
#14

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,107

I’ve read that market estimates are for higher gas prices in the medium term, which would be an unsurprising next part of the cycle.

Also, I wonder how much cheaper ENOG might get tomorrow morning, given today’s unpleasant developments?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjw398njqj4o

Interesting to look back at previous results, outlooks, and the reaction and actual levels the SP reached, travelling in both directions of course! Year high is 1219p and low is 807p. Low point was around the last time tensions boiled over, in October last year.

In Jan 2024, ENOG announced its annuals
Chief executive Mathios Rigas said: "2023 was the year we became the major independent gas producer in the Mediterranean. Despite the challenging regional geopolitical developments, we stabilised the production of the Energean Power FPSO.

"2024 shows significant potential; we are well advanced with our core strategic projects across Israel, Egypt, Italy and Greece, and have extended our footprint with a new gas development in Morocco. As we continue to optimise our portfolio, we look forward to enhancing our position as the leading independent gas-focused exploration, development and production company in the region."

As of 0850 GMT, Energean shares were down 2.02% at 921.0p.


And this from March…

Energean posted a surge in annual sales and earnings on Thursday, after the successful ramp-up of production from the Karish offshore gas field.

Average working interest production at the oil and gas firm, which is listed in both London and Tel Aviv, jumped 200% in the end to December end to 123 kboed (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day).

Energean said the hike was primarily down to a full year of production at the flagship Karish field. Located offshore Northern Israel in the eastern Mediterranean, the field accounts for around 75% of Energean's output.

As a result, revenues climbed 93% to $1.4bn, while underlying adjusted earnings jumped 121% to $931m. Operating profits surged 158% to $598m.

Shares in Energean tumbled last October, following the outbreak of violence in Israel and Gaza.

But chief executive Mathios Rigas said the ongoing conflict had not impacted the business. "2023 was another transformational year," he said.

"Despite the challenging geopolitical environment, all of our operations were managed without any impact from the regional conflicts.

"Since the year end, the start-up of Karish North and the second gas export riser mean we are now able to utilise the FPSO's (floating production storage and offloading) maximum gas capacity and our production guidance illustrates the next step towards our near-term target of 200 kboed."

Energean currently expects 2024 production to come in between 155 and 175 kboed.

As at 0900 GMT, Energean's London-listed shares were up 2% at 1,054.04p.


Since then, in July they’ve confirmed the investment in the Kaslan field in Israel and more recently started production at the Cassiopea field off the Italian coast. Plus an asset disposal in the Med announced in June. So never a dull moment.

Just thought I’d share these manic musings, apologies for hijacking (poor choice of word discussing a part-Israeli company, sorry) the thread.
Phil 2
Posted: 25 August 2024 19:54:22(UTC)
#15

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,107

Think the Oak Bloke is reading this thread?

https://theoakbloke.subs...se-a-glass-for-enog-gin

Snippet here:


Comparative Value

Comparing ENOG to DEC if political risk of Israel weren’t an issue which would I pick?

ENOG is operating in parts of the world with higher prices for gas, at least for now. It’s also the case in 2023 had a slightly oilier mix of products (80% vs DEC’s 84%). Although that percentage is changing at ENOG following its 2024 sale of assets but also also for DEC and its purchase of assets. The $31.63 vs $19.62 is an enormous reason to choose ENOG. ENOG give a slightly higher yield.

Otherwise all other stats go DEC’s direction. Production was 137kboepd vs 123kboepd, lower costs per BOE, lower capex, lower debt (albeit this has changed in 2024), lower Price to Book, a higher amount of profit $543m adj.EBITDA.

The most telling of all is once you factor in the market caps of £445m vs £1706m then the differences are most telling.

Per £1 invested DEC delivers FCF over 4.5X higher, EBITDAX over 2X higher, production 4.5X higher.

Debt is 3X adj EBITDA for ENOG and 2.8X for DEC.

DEC produces 100% from a safe jurisdiction (if you exclude the risk of enquiries from Honorable Pallome’s and Fake News Activists making up allegations). The risk with producing at an Israeli asset is… “interesting” if you’re positive and downright dangerous if you’re not.

I’ve written about Morocco and the potential risks and rewards of ENOG’s foray alongside CHAR in my article “CHAR-iots of Morocco”. $850m of Capex lies ahead for ENOG, as well as a $50m payment to increase ENOG’s ownership from 45% to 55% (which would also equate to 4m shares and dilution (on 180m existing shares). Plus 7% royalty costs to CHAR.

ENOG’s 2P resources of proved and probable are less certain. While ENOG has much higher levels of resource than DEC’s PDP resources (more still if you consider contingent resources, and I believe more if Morocco is included in the estimate) but the capex needed and risk of “probable” must be factored in too.

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