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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 09 January 2025 14:24:14(UTC)
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stephen_s on 09/01/2025(UTC)
Laurence O'Brien
Posted: 09 January 2025 17:59:21(UTC)
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The only poll that actually matters is the one that takes place on the day of the next GE but one of the things that I’ve noticed of late is the number of relatives and acquaintances, young and old, who have been forthcoming in their political opinions which they have never done before. The depth of disillusionment with the Uniparty is greater than I ever expected and support for Reform is coming from the most unexpected people. My teacher brother in law has voiced opinions that I would never have expected to hear from a member of that particular profession. He keeps his opinions to himself in front of his fellow teachers for obvious reasons but even he tells me of the murmurs of discontent amongst his fellow teachers. Something big is happening, I’m sure of that.
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6 users thanked Laurence O'Brien for this post.
Neminem Laedit on 09/01/2025(UTC), Sara G on 09/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 09/01/2025(UTC), Martina on 09/01/2025(UTC), stephen_s on 10/01/2025(UTC), Chalky W on 12/01/2025(UTC)
Jay P
Posted: 09 January 2025 18:17:38(UTC)
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Laurence O'Brien;330610 wrote:
The only poll that actually matters is the one that takes place on the day of the next GE but one of the things that I’ve noticed of late is the number of relatives and acquaintances, young and old, who have been forthcoming in their political opinions which they have never done before. The depth of disillusionment with the Uniparty is greater than I ever expected and support for Reform is coming from the most unexpected people. My teacher brother in law has voiced opinions that I would never have expected to hear from a member of that particular profession. He keeps his opinions to himself in front of his fellow teachers for obvious reasons but even he tells me of the murmurs of discontent amongst his fellow teachers. Something big is happening, I’m sure of that.

Fully reflects my own experience recently.
Across the age groups, demographics, professions etc etc. It is quite something.
Will it last? Not for another 4 years, that's for sure.
But how it will end? No idea. Will it just peter out? I doubt it.

The early policy of talking down the economy/ state of the Nation so utterly and completely, will in itself probably be used as an object lesson in political stupidity.
To follow it with such incompetence across the board has been extraordinary. No plan, no idea.

And throughout, the Country has been able to assess the characters themselves - Has there been such an unappealing individual as Starmer in Number 10? Tin-eared, robotic, lacking any apparent humanity.
Thin-skinned, spiteful and vindictive.
Most of the Country has seen itself personally branded by this fool as far-right. Way to go, Comrade.
And the Treasury? Rachel from Accounts.....
Beyond parody.
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4 users thanked Jay P for this post.
Sara G on 09/01/2025(UTC), Martina on 09/01/2025(UTC), Laurence O'Brien on 09/01/2025(UTC), stephen_s on 10/01/2025(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 09 January 2025 18:30:00(UTC)
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Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
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I've not noticed any rightward shift in the people I have contact with. There still seem to be plenty of people buying what Starmer is selling and unwilling to even contemplate voting for a right of centre party of any description. Labour doesn't need to persuade a lot of people to support them in order to win a majority, as we have seen. But a lot can happen in 4 years, and perhaps the Overton window is mean reverting.
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Neminem Laedit
Posted: 09 January 2025 18:44:29(UTC)
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Sara G;330615 wrote:
I've not noticed any rightward shift in the people I have contact with. There still seem to be plenty of people buying what Starmer is selling and unwilling to even contemplate voting for a right of centre party of any description. Labour doesn't need to persuade a lot of people to support them in order to win a majority, as we have seen. But a lot can happen in 4 years, and perhaps the Overton window is mean reverting.


The way the Labour vote is structured means they will almost certainly be either the first or second party under FPTP.

In my psephological days, I mused about this, and suggested the Tories were far more vulnerable if they ever fell seriously out of favour. At one point, it looked as if the LibDems under Charlie Kennedy might conceivably eclipse the Tories under William Hague.

But it wasn't to be. The Tories found their own 'Blair' in Cameron, and the LibDems knifed poor Charlie...

The stars are aligning again however, this time for Reform, whose vote is similarly structured to the old LibDem vote (the new LibDem vote is much more concentrated than in the past).

Over a fairly narrow range (say 10%) Reform go from winning next to nothing to becoming the government.

They're already about half way up that hill, with four years to go...

And I can't see much of a "swingback" (a term I coined around 2008) to Labour, unless they pull some amazing rabbits out of the hat.

They got in by default with the lowest ever vote share. There was no love for them on polling day. There is a lot less love now...

As I said here before the election, Reform needed to smash the Tories first, then smashing Labour next time could be comparatively easy.

So far, so good...
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Jay P on 09/01/2025(UTC), stephen_s on 10/01/2025(UTC)
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