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Johan De Silva
Posted: 11 January 2025 23:29:13(UTC)
#62

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
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Andrew's view are understandable and from a technical chart perspective we are due a big draw down.

Other negatives:
1. The quits rate is down in the US is as low as we usually get before a recession.
2. Gold is up... indicator of a stock market crash coming.

On the other hand the US economy is exceptionally good and should support asset prices.

I have pondered increasing cash but don't want to get whip sawed. There is always a bull run somewhere even in a bear market and I intend to find them, but if your passive there is only cash MMF where you can hide. Maybe short term gilts bonds from here. Gold may have a little run but it always falls with the stock market.
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3 users thanked Johan De Silva for this post.
Sara G on 12/01/2025(UTC), Jay P on 12/01/2025(UTC), Andrew59 on 12/01/2025(UTC)
Mostly Retired
Posted: 12 January 2025 12:08:43(UTC)
#63

Joined: 24/04/2012(UTC)
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This thread shows brilliantly how diversified in motives and goals us "investors" are. A range from building for the future to "been there, done it". We are united by not wanting to lose what we have grown, but very different in appetites for risk and recovery time for when it goes inevitably askew!

I am of the short term view that the world is extremely unstable and that it would take little to push it into an even more difficult space or a very liitle positive push to enthuse markets again. A coin toss at the moment.

The forum has helped me enormously in assisting me to work out where I am in the whole process and for 2025 and onwards I am putting myself far more firmly in "done it, dont lose it" camp. This means maintaing diversification, avoiding undue concentrations, cash/near cash (including some bond and gilt expposure), tax efficiency and a revised goal of post tax growth of CPI + a small amount, probably 1% to 2%. None of the family balance sheet is needed for pension purposes as I am already sorted by way of a DB pension in payment, so I am in "wealth maintenance" mode.

I am also learning for 2025 how to be less attached to investments that I made years ago and have not done what I expected. This applies particulalry for RICA, PNL and CGT in my case (RICA being my highest up the "I was wrong" scale).

Broad brush first stab of my aim for the portfolio shape in 2025 is now 45% in the "Cash/Near Cash/Bond/Gilt" bucket, 15% in global trackers, 10% in "standard" investement trusts (BNKR, FCIT, SAIN etc) 10% allocated to income bias (CTY and MGGDII) 15% in "Alternatives and PE" (wine, coins and HGT) and 5% in Gold. Now I need to test this mix a bit, adjust where needed, work out a plan to achieve it and - deep breath - actually do it!
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7 users thanked Mostly Retired for this post.
Guest on 12/01/2025(UTC), Martina on 12/01/2025(UTC), Jay P on 12/01/2025(UTC), Chalky W on 12/01/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 12/01/2025(UTC), Sara G on 12/01/2025(UTC), Mr Bean on 13/01/2025(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 12 January 2025 12:25:49(UTC)
#64

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
Posts: 5,865
Anyone else struggling a bit to balance sentiment and rhetoric with the balance sheet?

Right now all I see and hear is nervousness or doom and gloom.

But I login to my accounts and things are at an all time high (admittedly with a little help from the value of the pound).

It's very unnerving.
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Busy doing nothing
Posted: 12 January 2025 12:29:36(UTC)
#69

Joined: 01/03/2021(UTC)
Posts: 372
Think i will be adding more Gilts this year into my SIPP, possibly tomorrow.
Will start taking an income shortly in the new tax year from SIPP, and like someone said earlier on another posting, what's the point in taking undue risk for income that you don't need, so more bonds/gilts it is.
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Raj K
Posted: 12 January 2025 12:37:12(UTC)
#65

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
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Aminatidi;330870 wrote:
Anyone else struggling a bit to balance sentiment and rhetoric with the balance sheet?

Right now all I see and hear is nervousness or doom and gloom.

But I login to my accounts and things are at an all time high (admittedly with a little help from the value of the pound).

It's very unnerving.



Nope

The whole world is full of doom and gloom 24hrs a day.... just make sure you have a asset allocation that sits comfortable with you so that if /when the equity markets do take a turn you dont panic/bolt and stay the course.



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5 users thanked Raj K for this post.
SF100 on 12/01/2025(UTC), Rookie Investor on 12/01/2025(UTC), stephen_s on 12/01/2025(UTC), Mostly Retired on 12/01/2025(UTC), Martina on 12/01/2025(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 12 January 2025 13:13:00(UTC)
#70

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
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What gloom and doom? I am seeing things looking pretty rosy and I do not mean my stock portfolio.

If you think this is gloom and doom, then I would hate to think what you thought about March 2020 or 2008.

There is always doom and gloom being reported by shit like the media, some posters on here, blogs like neil woodford, others who should know better like vanguard.

None of this is relevant at best and worse just spreads nonsense and misinformation.

Problem is many do not do any proper analysis when making bold statements and you have some look at PE ratios like they provide so much information.

Be VERY careful what you consume.
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4 users thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
Special Kloud on 12/01/2025(UTC), Chalky W on 12/01/2025(UTC), Martina on 12/01/2025(UTC), Raj K on 12/01/2025(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 12 January 2025 13:20:41(UTC)
#66

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,101
Aminatidi;330870 wrote:
Anyone else struggling a bit to balance sentiment and rhetoric with the balance sheet?

Right now all I see and hear is nervousness or doom and gloom.

But I login to my accounts and things are at an all time high (admittedly with a little help from the value of the pound).

It's very unnerving.


I know what you mean... To me it has a 'Phoney War' feel to it.

My stance was roughly to wait and see what Trump actually does, vs. what he said he would do. But that is changing to a generally negative stance on Trump.

I might think that no leader of the Western world word really do something so dumb as to make markets actually crash with stupid policy decisions. But then (without re-igniting that debate again) 'Liz Truss'.

Many of Trump's declarations seem in line with Trussonomics, so I don't exclude the possibility of something really, really dumb. But the more words I hear from America, the more uneasy I become.

So I continue to nudge into things that will benefit from changes in interest rates. Fixed Income if they go up and Corporate Bonds if they go down. With a plan to switch rapidly between the two depending on how things unfold, and to switch to either side of the Cable rate.


I'm actually curious if there is anyone here that thinks that if Trump slaps the tariffs he has indicated, that it would actually benefit their wealth?
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Rookie Investor
Posted: 12 January 2025 13:30:17(UTC)
#67

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
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ANDREW FOSTER;330878 wrote:
Aminatidi;330870 wrote:
Anyone else struggling a bit to balance sentiment and rhetoric with the balance sheet?

Right now all I see and hear is nervousness or doom and gloom.

But I login to my accounts and things are at an all time high (admittedly with a little help from the value of the pound).

It's very unnerving.


I know what you mean... To me it has a 'Phoney War' feel to it.

My stance was roughly to wait and see what Trump actually does, vs. what he said he would do. But that is changing to a generally negative stance on Trump.

I might think that no leader of the Western world word really do something so dumb as to make markets actually crash with stupid policy decisions. But then (without re-igniting that debate again) 'Liz Truss'.

Many of Trump's declarations seem in line with Trussonomics, so I don't exclude the possibility of something really, really dumb. But the more words I hear from America, the more uneasy I become.

So I continue to nudge into things that will benefit from changes in interest rates. Fixed Income if they go up and Corporate Bonds if they go down. With a plan to switch rapidly between the two depending on how things unfold, and to switch to either side of the Cable rate.


I'm actually curious if there is anyone here that thinks that if Trump slaps the tariffs he has indicated, that it would actually benefit their wealth?


This post by Andrew is exactly what I am referring to in my previous post.

There is literally nothing actionable in it, conflating the gilt crash in 2022 to Trump's policies, as if to say equity markets will experience the same fate. It is absolutely nonsense. Tariffs and such will impact companies, but some more than others. This will be more about foreign imports, but the US consumer comes first, and if there is a better choice abroad, why impose a tax and disgruntle voters?

Please, stop and think before reading such things. It leads investors the wrong way time and time again. The profit incentives are just too great and the US is the best at encouraging this.

And then Andrew posits to trade around FI with changing rates. I mean good luck with that. I recall you got your cable view badly wrong, and then you end up buying junk credit at yields not in line of the risks.
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1 user thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
SF100 on 12/01/2025(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 12 January 2025 13:33:19(UTC)
#71

Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
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I suspect that the current nervousness (aside from the usual concerns about some 'overvalued' stocks in the US) is related to bond yields getting towards 5%, which have perhaps risen due to nervousness around Trump, so there is a bit of a doom loop going on, which threatens the bull run in stocks. But if things get really bad, interest rates will presumably be cut, which you'd expect to put a floor underneath any falls. But outside of all of that, a shock can happen at any time and will likely be triggered by something we're only peripherally aware of (or not at all). But Trump 2.0 is coming, for good or ill, and I'm not sure Harris 1.0 would have made me feel any less nervous TBH, possibly the reverse.

What to do... once again Gilt yields are rising just at the point that one of my fixed term accounts is due to mature, so there will be a temptation to lock in a decent yield for a few years while everything else plays out. As far as risk is concerned, I am drip-feeding tiny amounts into a US tracker in my small long term SIPP, and will use my ISA allowance, if that is still possible come April. I'm unlikely to add more equities to my GIA for various reasons.
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3 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Mostly Retired on 12/01/2025(UTC), what me worry? on 12/01/2025(UTC), Busy doing nothing on 12/01/2025(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 12 January 2025 14:11:54(UTC)
#68

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,254
Rookie Investor;330880 wrote:
And then Andrew posits to trade around FI with changing rates. I mean good luck with that.
I am hoping for more from my retirement tbh
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