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Is now the time to take profits?
mdss68
Posted: 20 January 2025 21:23:38(UTC)
#10

Joined: 20/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,975

ben ski;331488 wrote:
Ramondo;331454 wrote:
I've just carried out my weekly totals and found that my profit margins have doubled from about 9% back in October of last year to over 18%, Is now the time to take profits of what ever amount or on a specific holding?

I have no doubt that this rise is due to Donald, will it go on after his inauguration? or fall with his actions whilst President?
Decisions, decisions!


The only possible edge, I think, would be to get a consensus view on here, and do the opposite.

It shouldn't really be possible to know – but by surveying the worst, lowest-information, most reactive and confused investors in the market, it *may* be possible to distill what the dumb money is doing, and bet against that on purely behavioural grounds.

Really, the best advice is to have a sensible asset allocation, and rebalance as often as you need to. It's good enough for the largest institutional investors, and ensures you are profiting from price moves, both ways.



The dumb money bought PINT on the last retail spike....oh, wait, that was you wasn't it.

The dumb money thinks you can't short an IT, oh wait, also you

The dumb money said anything more than CGT was over diversification....I think we all know who that was

Impressive track record, outdone only by BB with SUPP & RGL etc

But nope, only you two understand markets ;-)
ben ski
Posted: 20 January 2025 21:50:03(UTC)
#11

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,357

mdss68;331721 wrote:
The dumb money bought PINT on the last retail spike....oh, wait, that was you wasn't it.

The dumb money thinks you can't short an IT, oh wait, also you


No. I made one large investment in PINT at 80.68p, about 6% off its low. It wasn't even on my radar till September – so great work there, monkey boy.

And you can't generally short ITs. If you spreadbet on an IT, you're only in a derivative contract with another trader. It doesn't move the price. Point being that there's no system to downvote ITs. Lobotomised lab chimps bringing down the reputation of this fine forum.

ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 20 January 2025 22:07:25(UTC)
#19

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,101

Thanks: 11340 times
Was thanked: 18200 time(s) in 5967 post(s)

Personally I feel the Trump boost will run a little yet.

But there may come a time to nibble away at ATH's.

I actually hit an ATH in the first week of January and there have been half a dozen more since.

The only area in my sights at present for trimming is the good ole UK which I think is in for a rough time this year but is looking bouyant as of today. I may switch a bit more FTSE into UK Corporate bonds ready for base rate falls that look a tadge more likely short term.
2 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Peanuts on 20/01/2025(UTC), Sheerman on 22/01/2025(UTC)
ben ski
Posted: 20 January 2025 22:12:41(UTC)
#20

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,357

ANDREW FOSTER;331728 wrote:

The only area in my sights at present for trimming is the good ole UK which I think is in for a rough time this year


The only area mdss68's trimming are his forearms – which are inches thick in chimpanzee hair.

mdss68
Posted: 21 January 2025 06:48:33(UTC)
#29

Joined: 20/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,975

There's this one

Topic: Infrastructure Exposure for 2024-2025
ben ski Posted: 3 months ago
That was me buying PINT from 12:47 onwards yesterday – then once it'd been bumped up +4%, it seemed to spark more buying.

I don't know what kind of play monkey (sorry, money) you guys are using, but it's not even trading 6 figures most days – so when I say it takes a day for me to fill an order..

Still, I was staring at the price chart on Tuesday evening, and the discount is unjustifiable – it does need to start trading at higher volumes to attract serious investors – there's a chimpanzee colony doing a lot of small trades, and a group of macaques building positions from Whipsnade – but there's a good opportunity to get in early on a trust that is in one of the most promising parts of the market. Part of the market that could beat growth private equity over the next era.

=======
And here's my Instagram V Reality response -

mdss68
Posted: 3 months ago#1685

Joined: 20/09/2018
Posts: 1,957

Thanks: 3369 times
Was thanked: 4099 time(s) in 1520 post(s)
ben ski;321176 wrote:
That was me buying PINT from 12:47 onwards yesterday – then once it'd been bumped up +4%, it seemed to spark more buying.

I don't know what kind of play monkey (sorry, money) you guys are using, but it's not even trading 6 figures most days – so when I say it takes a day for me to fill an order..

Still, I was staring at the price chart on Tuesday evening, and the discount is unjustifiable – it does need to start trading at higher volumes to attract serious investors – there's a chimpanzee colony doing a lot of small trades, and a group of macaques building positions from Whipsnade – but there's a good opportunity to get in early on a trust that is in one of the most promising parts of the market. Part of the market that could beat growth private equity over the next era.




That's the "Instagram" .......this is the reality, the buying was early, and the spike got sold into, and by 12.50 (handily marked on this 3 minute chart) , twas flat, with very little volume.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z8Q8V1VL/

Oh, and getting in early? Try a weekly chart and see if anyone reckons early might just have been late March........

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CDURmjsF/

Right now, that's an over bought stock, which for the sake of the genuine folk who hold I hope carries on upwards, but a wise man once taught me "Never jump in on a spike, you'll most likely get impaled"

You'll notice the emoji marking your trade (or claim of one)

And finally, the same chart now - https://www.tradingview.com/x/tVfo8XoQ/

As you've also spent much time since demonstrating your photoshop skills with all those rather unedifying pictures of a full England, faking a contract note is hardly an effort for you, but back when you claimed to buy PINT, yo wanted us all to be immensely impressed.

Must try harder, some of us actually have memories!
3 users thanked mdss68 for this post.
You have to change your life on 21/01/2025(UTC), Mr GL on 21/01/2025(UTC), Jay P on 21/01/2025(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 21 January 2025 07:08:51(UTC)
#12

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,124

ben ski;331726 wrote:

And you can't generally short ITs. If you spreadbet on an IT, you're only in a derivative contract with another trader. It doesn't move the price.]


I believe SABA 'own' a lot of the investments trusts they are targeting via CFDs. / spread bets .... now I am not sure how these differ but I am damm sure that their counterparties on these positions will need to enter the 'real' market to hedge their risk and so 'selling' (wether to close out a long or establish a short risk position) will need to be hedged... as to to wether these transactions move prices I will leave that to you to wax lyrical on...

But yes... I agree that net supply and demand hasn't shifted because for every buyer there is a seller and - oh wait... Lodoski seems to be arguing against himself across different threads ...
Peanuts
Posted: 21 January 2025 21:41:26(UTC)
#21

Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
Posts: 1,476

ANDREW FOSTER;331728 wrote:

Personally I feel the Trump boost will run a little yet.

But there may come a time to nibble away at ATH's.

I actually hit an ATH in the first week of January and there have been half a dozen more since.

The only area in my sights at present for trimming is the good ole UK which I think is in for a rough time this year but is looking bouyant as of today. I may switch a bit more FTSE into UK Corporate bonds ready for base rate falls that look a tadge more likely short term.


UK is a difficult one - feels like it’s going to crater but keeps popping back up.

My plan is to take a bit more out of equity when the S&P touches 6500 and put more into fixed income above 5%. Unless yields go above 6% I’ll keep at least 50% in equity. Interesting times and feel very positive in the last few days that Trump and earnings will fuel the rally.
Newbie
Posted: 21 January 2025 22:23:48(UTC)
#30

Joined: 31/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,816

My follow on Tuppence

End of year rally - Check
Good start (usually the case when back from Hamptons) - Check
Wobble in Mid Jan - Check
Generally calm and upwards - ?
Pullback in March - ?
Small uptick in Apr - ?
May (go away) - ?

Target / End of Year
S&P EoY - 6500.
Amazon Target - 260
Goog Target - 225
NVDA - 178
PANW - 210.
FTSE - Broad FTSE, not a scooby/idea, but there are opportunities within in individuals imo.

Action
15-20% Cash (inc CSH2,, MMF, Short Term Bonds)
20% - Crazy corner trading (see plenty of opportunities here whilst ducks are lined up)
Gold - Hedge for pullbacks (can always copy Mr T or use to get out country)
Main Portfolio (has broad global equities, lots of PE, cutting back on satellites)- generally leave alone
Considering another BTL or releasing more cash when rates come down.
ben ski
Posted: 22 January 2025 00:03:23(UTC)
#13

Joined: 15/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 1,357

Mr GL;331740 wrote:
ben ski;331726 wrote:

And you can't generally short ITs. If you spreadbet on an IT, you're only in a derivative contract with another trader. It doesn't move the price.]


I believe SABA 'own' a lot of the investments trusts they are targeting via CFDs. / spread bets .... now I am not sure how these differ but I am damm sure that their counterparties on these positions will need to enter the 'real' market to hedge their risk


Ownership of the Underlying Asset: Since spread betting is purely a financial agreement between the trader and the platform, the underlying security is not directly traded. Instead, the platform calculates gains and losses based on the price movement of the referenced asset.
– Investing For Dummies

Imagine people coming here, looking for better advice than you'd find in Investing For Dummies.

Mr GL
Posted: 22 January 2025 06:52:49(UTC)
#14

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
Posts: 5,124

ben ski;331837 wrote:
Mr GL;331740 wrote:
ben ski;331726 wrote:

And you can't generally short ITs. If you spreadbet on an IT, you're only in a derivative contract with another trader. It doesn't move the price.]


I believe SABA 'own' a lot of the investments trusts they are targeting via CFDs. / spread bets .... now I am not sure how these differ but I am damm sure that their counterparties on these positions will need to enter the 'real' market to hedge their risk


Ownership of the Underlying Asset: Since spread betting is purely a financial agreement between the trader and the platform, the underlying security is not directly traded. Instead, the platform calculates gains and losses based on the price movement of the referenced asset.
– Investing For Dummies

Imagine people coming here, looking for better advice than you'd find in Investing For Dummies.



oh dear.... so you think that SABA can 'own' 10% of HRI via a spread bet and the spread betting firm they established the position with did not go into the market and hedge their risk exposure... they just went naked short in the hope that SABA got it wrong? cool -

yes - the vast majority of small retail trades are offset against punters taking the other side and the spread bet firm take the spread etc as their profit... however their overall net risk - if it gets too significant - will need to be hedged so that the firm is not exposed to too much market risk / potential losses...

https://www.financial-sp...pread-betting-hedge.html
1 user thanked Mr GL for this post.
PH . on 22/01/2025(UTC)
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