Andrew59;336090 wrote:
I guess it depends on your view of the future direction of interest rates.
Are they really coming down any time soon?
I guess the hypothesis is that as the UK struggles interest rates will be lowered to improve the chances of growth.
Conversely, if you look at the constituents of the inflation figures it's the service sector that (I'll led to believe) is the biggest concern. CPI services inflation rose from 4.4 to 5% and unless they can get that under control inflation will stay above target. That could delay any interest rate cuts.
Unlike the Fed, the BoE remit is only 'achieve an inflation target of 2%' - nothing related to unemployment specifically.
The Fed has a dual mandate.
But I take your point and maybe need to cast an eye over a few none-MM alternatives.
My view is that if Trump pushes ahead with infaltionary policies (lower tax, high tariffs) then the inevitable result will be hgiher Fed rates for longer, possibly even upwards. That will suck money to the USA and damage the UK forex rates, resulting in inflation here.
That, in turn, puts upwards pressure on UK rates, irrespective of any recession here.
But it's all very finger in the air and why I split my corporate bond funds roughly equally between hedged and unhedged and I'm happy to steer that split according to the direction of the wind.
Currently I'm not feeling another UK base rate cut in March...