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Long-term Vanguard Lifestrategy 60 asset allocation changes
Tim D
Posted: 01 October 2019 10:48:06(UTC)
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Spawned out of discussions in the thread at https://moneyforums.city...h-ones-do-you-have.aspx to try and assess how much Vanguard do change their asset allocation. Quite hard to find historic portfolio data but this contains a few scrobbled datapoints.

Mainly focussed on sub-fund allocation, however I've also captured "UK equity exposure" and "North American Equities" percentages from the "Underlying asset classes" part of the quarterlies (which ought take the "Developed World ex-U.K" allocation into account correctly).

September 2022 from https://www.vanguard.co....etter-uk-en-2022-q3.pdf (dated Sept 30th 2022):

Quote:
Vanguard Global Bond Index Fund 19.9
Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 18.7
Vanguard U.S. Equity Index Fund 15.1
Vanguard FTSE U.K. All Share Index Unit Trust 14.7
Vanguard U.K. Government Bond Index Fund 5.9
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund 4.9
Vanguard U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 4.3
Vanguard U.K. Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund 3.4
Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF 3.1
Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 2.9
Vanguard Japan Stock Index Fund 1.6
Vanguard U.S. Government Bond Index Fund 1.3
Vanguard U.S. Investment Grade Credit Index Fund 1.2
Vanguard Euro Government Bond Index Fund 1.1
Vanguard Pacific Ex-Japan Stock Index Fund 0.8
Vanguard Japan Government Bond Index Fund 0.6
Vanguard Euro Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 0.5

UK/NA equities: 14.7% / 28.9%


July 2019 from https://www.vanguard.co....strategy-newsletter.pdf at time of this post:

Quote:
Vanguard® FTSE Developed World ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 19.30
Vanguard® Global Bond Index Fund 19.20
Vanguard® FTSE U.K. All Share Index Unit Trust 15.00
Vanguard® U.S. Equity Index Fund 14.20
Vanguard® U.K. Government Bond Index Fund 5.80
Vanguard® Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund 4.90
Vanguard® U.K. Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund 3.80
Vanguard® FTSE Developed Europe ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 3.70
Vanguard® U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 3.60
Vanguard® Japan Stock Index Fund 2.00
Vanguard® US Investment Grade Credit Index Fund 1.70
Vanguard® US Government Bond Index Fund 1.70
Vanguard® Euro Government Bond Index Fund 1.60
Vanguard® Pacific Ex-Japan Stock Index Fund 1.00
Vanguard® Japan Government Bond Index Fund 0.90
Vanguard® Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF 0.80
Vanguard® Euro Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 0.80
Vanguard® U.K. Government Bond UCITS ETF 0.00

UK/NA equities: 15.0% / 27.1%


From https://www.vanguard.co....strategy-newsletter.pdf as captiured by the Wayback Machine at the wayback machine a handful of times:

July 2016

Quote:
Vanguard ® FTSE Developed World ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 19.3
Vanguard ® U.K. Government Bond Index Fund 6.10
Vanguard ® FTSE U.K. All Share Index Unit Trust 15.5
Vanguard ® U.S. Equity Index Fund 14.7
Vanguard ® U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 3.30
Vanguard ® U.K. Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund 3.30
Vanguard ® FTSE Developed Europe ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 4.00
Vanguard ® Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund 4.30
Vanguard ® Japan Stock Index Fund 2.20
Vanguard ® Pacific Ex-Japan Stock Index Fund 1.10
Vanguard ® U.K. Gilt UCITS ETF 0.10
Vanguard ® Global Bond Index Fund 18.7
Vanguard ® Euro Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 0.80
Vanguard ® Euro Government Bond Index Fund 1.80
Vanguard ® Japan Government Bond Index Fund 1.30
Vanguard ® US Investment Grade Credit Index Fund 1.80
Vanguard ® US Government Bond Index Fund 1.70

UK/NA equities: 15.5% / 27.41%


Related, this article from October 2016 mentions the "We're nudging investors away from their UK bias" thing: https://www.telegraph.co...way-from-their-uk-bias/ - however looking at the numbers 2014 & 2015 numbers below, it's hard to interpret them as being anything other than a very subtle nudge... at most a fraction of a percent off the UK allocation but certainly a couple onto the US maybe? But maybe it'd already been ongoing before 2014? (Lifestrategy was launched mid-2011 in the UK).

July 2015

Quote:
Vanguard ® FTSE Developed World ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 19.20
Vanguard ® U.K. Government Bond Index Fund 5.90
Vanguard ® FTSE U.K. All Share Index Unit Trust 15.10
Vanguard ® U.S. Equity Index Fund 13.30
Vanguard ® U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 3.70
Vanguard ® U.K. Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund 3.20
Vanguard ® FTSE Developed Europe ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 4.20
Vanguard ® Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund 4.60
Vanguard ® Japan Stock Index Fund 2.20
Vanguard ® Pacific Ex-Japan Stock Index Fund 1.20
Vanguard ® U.K. Government Bond UCITS ETF 0.20
Vanguard ® Global Bond Index Fund 19.40
Vanguard ® Euro Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 0.90
Vanguard ® Euro Government Bond Index Fund 1.90
Vanguard ® Japan Government Bond Index Fund 1.30
Vanguard ® US Investment Grade Credit Index Fund 1.90
Vanguard ® US Government Bond Index Fund 1.80

UK/NA equities: 15.1% / 25.58%


July 2014

Quote:
Vanguard ® FTSE Developed World ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 19.20
Vanguard ® U.K. Government Bond Index Fund 5.80
Vanguard ® FTSE U.K. Equity Index Fund 15.10
Vanguard ® U.S. Equity Index Fund 13.20
Vanguard ® U.K. Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 4.00
Vanguard ® U.K. Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund 2.90
Vanguard ® FTSE Developed Europe ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund 4.50
Vanguard ® Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund 4.50
Vanguard ® Japan Stock Index Fund 2.20
Vanguard ® Pacific Ex-Japan Stock Index Fund 1.30
Vanguard ® U.K. Government Bond UCITS ETF 0.30
Vanguard ® Global Bond Index Fund 19.30
Vanguard ® Euro Investment Grade Bond Index Fund 0.90
Vanguard ® Euro Government Bond Index Fund 2.10
Vanguard ® Japan Government Bond Index Fund 1.40
Vanguard ® US Investment Grade Credit Index Fund 1.70
Vanguard ® US Government Bond Index Fund 1.60

UK/NA equities: 15.1% / 25.2%


So back to then, looks basically "steady as a rock to me", 2015/2016 tweaks excepted. Hardly looks like a den of market-timing tactical-allocating iniquity but it'd be nice to find some data from between 2016 and 2019.

Update: Aha, trying to get further back still, Monevator had a 2011 article with the Lifestrategy 60 weightings around the time of their launch:

2011

Quote:
UK Government Bond Index 18.6%
UK Investment Grade Bond Index 13.3%
UK Inflation-linked Gilt Index 8.1%
UK Equity Index 21%
FTSE Developed World ex-UK Index 33.6%
MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index 5.4%


So between 2011 and 2014 Vanguard did drop the UK equity holdings by ~5% and raise the international exposure by a similar amount. (It's interesting that they added an explicit US holding rather than simply just increasing the Developed World ex-UK holding.) See also a subsequent comment below about the bond allocation (entirely UK in 2011) becoming more international too.
12 users thanked Tim D for this post.
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Mel Shapiro
Posted: 01 October 2019 10:54:41(UTC)
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Many thanks Tim for the interesting overview!
Indeed only subtle changes to the UK allocation, seems almost like they set a fixed threshold at 15%.
paul armstrong
Posted: 01 October 2019 10:57:02(UTC)
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Here's one view

https://citywire.co.uk/f...ck-market-bias/a1232783

Found the link
https://www.telegraph.co...s-cutting-back-british/
Quote: thank you Mr telegraph

You have a bias to British stocks and bonds. Why?
Currently, 25pc of our stock allocation is in Britain, and 35pc of our bonds are British although this was 100pc when we started as it was all we had access to. Our philosophy is that from a pure investment perspective it is best to have as small a “home bias” as possible. Typically we look at our competitors and aim to be lower. By doing this we hope the whole market will follow suit to reduce their bias.

Will your home bias be coming down then?
Probably in the not-too-distant future we will be dialling down that home bias, yes. Part of the reason we haven’t lately, even though there is a case for it, is that with Brexit going on we don’t want to be accused of making a tactical decision based on currency.
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Tim D
Posted: 01 October 2019 14:29:43(UTC)
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Home bias is an interesting area (I've always had quite a lot, just because I started off like that and it's *never* felt like the right time to shift to a completely global-weighted allocation, so for me Lifestrategy just perpetuates the same sort of bias I've always had).

I note the Monevator table - https://monevator.com/pa...nd-of-funds-the-rivals/ - includes some mentions of "No home bias" in the "We like" column for some things, and warns "Home bias" in the "Watch out" column for some others, so there are certainly options. Not checked, but I suspect the funds with home bias (e.g Lifestrategy) will be the older ones, while more purely globally exposed ones will be relatively recent. This sort of thing is surely going to be driven by the marketing perception of what punters want to buy at least as much as it is by investment ideas about what's actually good for their portfolio.

Seems to me the vilification of home bias is a relatively recent thing over the last few years. Go back further and I remember all sorts of punditry along the lines of "well obviously the UK economy is growing faster than the global economy so why would you invest anywhere else" and "the UK market is so diverse I can find all the global exposure I want there without going abroad" (that latter one from Woodford, IIRC). Looking at the total return chart for FTSEAllShare vs. FTSEWorld for as far back as trustnet will plot it, seems to me the relatively recent obsession with maximising global diversification & minimising home bias may have really got started around the same time the latest decoupling of UK and global markets did (which itself I suspect was triggered by Camerons 2015 election victory and it becoming clearer the UK was headed for a period of Eurosceptic navel-gazing) :

UK vs World
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Alexander Johnston
Posted: 01 October 2019 15:46:58(UTC)
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My understanding of the "home" bias of Vanguard LifeStrategy funds was because Vanguard believed that UK investors preferred having a home bias, but they would review this in future with a view to reducing it.
I recall reading this explanation somewhere.
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Tim D on 01/10/2019(UTC), For What It's Worth on 01/10/2019(UTC)
Apostate
Posted: 01 October 2019 16:33:10(UTC)
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the problem is not so much home bias as FTSE100 bias - if the home bias were expressed in overweighting the FTSE250 it might be different
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Maloney
Posted: 01 October 2019 17:13:17(UTC)
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If the pound strengthens considerably when Brexit is sorted, a home bias might be useful. Big if of course.
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Monty Claret on 01/10/2019(UTC)
paul armstrong
Posted: 08 October 2019 13:56:41(UTC)
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Alexander Johnston;92435 wrote:
My understanding of the "home" bias of Vanguard LifeStrategy funds was because Vanguard believed that UK investors preferred having a home bias, but they would review this in future with a view to reducing it.
I recall reading this explanation somewhere.


https://www.telegraph.co...away-from-their-uk-bias/
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Alexander Johnston on 08/10/2019(UTC)
Tim D
Posted: 08 October 2019 14:22:35(UTC)
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paul armstrong;93061 wrote:
Alexander Johnston;92435 wrote:
My understanding of the "home" bias of Vanguard LifeStrategy funds was because Vanguard believed that UK investors preferred having a home bias, but they would review this in future with a view to reducing it.


https://www.telegraph.co...away-from-their-uk-bias/


The headline on that 2016 article is "Vanguard: 'We're nudging investors away from their UK bias' " and in it there's a quote claiming "Looking at what Vanguard has done over the past few years, we have been gradually reducing the home bias in the fund range." (and it is the Lifestrategy range which is being talked about).

But if you go back to the 1st post in this thread and compare the weightings for the most obviously relevant holdings between the 2014, 2016, 2019 Lifestrategy60 captured there:

Developed World ex-U.K. Equity Index : 19.2%, 19.3%, 19.3%
U.S. Equity Index Fund: 13.2%, 14.7%, 14.2%
U.K. Equity Index Fund: 15.1%, 15.5%, 15%

...then it's not obvious that there's been any significant nudging going on at all.

However a bit more digging for old Lifestrategy asset allocations turned up an old 2011 Monevator article from around the time of their launch which claims the Lifestrategy 60 asset allocation back then was:

Quote:
UK Government Bond Index 18.6%
UK Investment Grade Bond Index 13.3%
UK Inflation-linked Gilt Index 8.1%
UK Equity Index 21%
FTSE Developed World ex-UK Index 33.6%
MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index 5.4%
(will update the original post with these).

So looks like any nudging had been done between 2011 and 2014, with the UK weighting being dropped ~5% (to three-quarters of its previous weight) and the total US plus DevelopedWorld-exUK allocation being raised by a similar amount (interesting that they now have some explicit US exposure rather than getting it entirely through the DevelopedWorld holding).

Of course any further home-bias reduction seems to be stalled for now, by https://www.telegraph.co...s-cutting-back-british/ " Vanguard LifeStrategy: Brexit has stopped us cutting back British holdings".
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Alexander Johnston on 08/10/2019(UTC)
paul armstrong
Posted: 08 October 2019 14:54:29(UTC)
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Yes,Vanguard reduced the home bias some time ago. Of course, home bias in bonds may be judged differently than in equities. Seem to remember the Vanguard figure aggregated both.
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