Funds Insider - Opening the door to funds

Welcome to the Citywire Funds Insider Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error
Sea of Red
+ Reply to discussion
Options
Dunno
Posted: 08 March 2025 14:36:18(UTC)
#3466

Joined: 09/04/2024(UTC)
Posts: 60

Thanks: 61 times
Was thanked: 88 time(s) in 45 post(s)
ANDREW FOSTER;336920 wrote:
Robert D;336908 wrote:
Since the turn of the year the hugely overvalued S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down 4% and 7% respectively. with further falls likely under Trump

Year to date. China (FTSE China 50) is up 21%, the German index 17%, and the FTSE 100 6%. Gold is up 8%, gold miners 18%.

All of these are cheap markets, where that value is now being reflected by investor buying.

Going into MMFs doesn't make sense when there is so much good value elsewhere in the world


Such markets may offer value compared to MMF's, but the risk profile is totally different for equities vs MMFs under the present conditions.

There are simply so many unknowns ATM so can't blame anyone for sitting it out on above inflation returns until some clarity appears....or not.



I tend to side with you on this one Andrew…I don’t think I’ve read here that anyone has sold up completely and gone into mmfs. That would indeed be foolish. It seems a few have merely trimmed their equity holdings to take a breath and reevaluate. It’s all very well saying invest in Europe but it is possible Europe is just a misstep away from disaster. If Trump or Putin get out of the wrong side of the bed one morning, any Ukraine peace deal could be off. China has been largely uninvestable for years…big call to pile in now I think. I’m happy to take a breather and see how Ukraine, tariffs etc pan out over the next few months.
Back to top Quote
2 users thanked Dunno for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 08/03/2025(UTC), Special Kloud on 08/03/2025(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 08 March 2025 14:38:21(UTC)
#3487

Joined: 26/04/2020(UTC)
Posts: 3,365
I’m still curious as to who all these posters are who are 100% in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Can anyone confirm if it’s them?
Back to top Quote
Harry Gloom
Posted: 08 March 2025 14:51:08(UTC)
#3486

Joined: 01/12/2022(UTC)
Posts: 389
Johan De Silva;336935 wrote:
Harry do 13F filing include stocks from an international index or just those Japanese companies listed on the NAS or am talking Bulshido!

Bill Akman's holding in European companies don't show up.

I think will start drip feeding into the Nikkei to overweight as I am underweight Japan.


Yes the 13F includes the 5 Japanese trading house investments, well at least they are listed on the CNBC Berkshire tracker, see here:

https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/
Back to top Quote
Harry Gloom
Posted: 08 March 2025 15:03:31(UTC)
#3481

Joined: 01/12/2022(UTC)
Posts: 389
Tom 123;336934 wrote:
Harry Gloom;336933 wrote:


The S&P500 did indeed "go somewhere" in 2000-2009. The total return had fully recovered from the 2000-2002 declines by July 2006. It then went on to rise considerably to new all time highs for another year up to July 2007, then the great financial crash happened. 2 significant market events book ending a decade where steady gains had returned to the index in the middle of the decade.

Those pesky facts keep getting in the way don't they?


Lets agree facts as facts:

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/sp500-calculator/

Jan 2000 to Dec 2006, it did 11% nominal (total return inc divis), -7% inflation adjusted.

Jan 2000 to Jan 2012, it did 13% nominal (total return inc divis), -16% inflation adjusted.

It was derided, everyone was elsewhere.

Now it is 300% higher value and loved. Everywhere else is derided.

Go figure likely expected returns from here.


OK, accepted, plus a few points to note and consider when looking back, general CPI inflation and personal inflation can be quite different depending on individuals circumstances, also, GBP/USD fx would have impacted, detrimentally I think without checking,

I'm not advocating going all out on S&P500 with a lump sum of new money but certainly don't advocate selling long held positions and running for the hills. Maybe trim a bit, which I did twice last year, end of June and November, about 9% of holdings in total at that time.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
1 user thanked Harry Gloom for this post.
Tom 123 on 08/03/2025(UTC)
Sara G
Posted: 08 March 2025 15:21:01(UTC)
#3489

Joined: 07/05/2015(UTC)
Posts: 4,038

Thanks: 13064 times
Was thanked: 16835 time(s) in 3507 post(s)
smg8;336940 wrote:
I’m still curious as to who all these posters are who are 100% in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Can anyone confirm if it’s them?


Not me, sadly. I wish I had been, as I'd have some healthy profits to enjoy! It's a very polarised world these days, however, so I am sure there are a few. A while back someone on here went all in on TSLA and returned a spectacular amount - hopefully they trimmed some gains.

It's all sentiment at the moment, binary positions and no room for nuance. I can't think of a better example than the people who bought Teslas (actual cars, not shares), and are now offloading them because of a sudden ideological aversion to Musk. The idea that people are doing that with their pensions and life savings is quite alarming.
Back to top Quote
6 users thanked Sara G for this post.
Jay P on 08/03/2025(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 08/03/2025(UTC), smg8 on 08/03/2025(UTC), PW2021 on 08/03/2025(UTC), Aminatidi on 08/03/2025(UTC), Mostly Retired on 08/03/2025(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 08 March 2025 19:28:07(UTC)
#3488

Joined: 17/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 2,193

Thanks: 730 times
Was thanked: 1798 time(s) in 972 post(s)
smg8;336940 wrote:
I’m still curious as to who all these posters are who are 100% in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Can anyone confirm if it’s them?



Me. Or, more accurately, 70% in a handful of megacaps and 30% nominally listed UK but global.

Same as it was back along, same stocks. Since you are curious, you can search my posts with some filter word like - "portfolio" - or just ask what you want to know.
Back to top Quote
1 user thanked You have to change your life for this post.
Jay P on 08/03/2025(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 08 March 2025 19:31:49(UTC)
#3492

Joined: 17/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 2,193

Thanks: 730 times
Was thanked: 1798 time(s) in 972 post(s)
I am down between 6-7% ytd.
Back to top Quote
3 users thanked You have to change your life for this post.
Sara G on 08/03/2025(UTC), Busy doing nothing on 08/03/2025(UTC), Jay P on 08/03/2025(UTC)
Jed Mires
Posted: 08 March 2025 20:07:07(UTC)
#3491

Joined: 04/04/2023(UTC)
Posts: 337
Sara G;336944 wrote:

It's all sentiment at the moment, binary positions and no room for nuance. I can't think of a better example than the people who bought Teslas (actual cars, not shares), and are now offloading them because of a sudden ideological aversion to Musk. The idea that people are doing that with their pensions and life savings is quite alarming.



Probably not the best reasons to adjust your portfolio, but if they did have tesla stock to dumb last month they would have saved themselves a 25% loss.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
Thrugelmir
Posted: 08 March 2025 22:46:57(UTC)
#3490

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,316

Thanks: 3251 times
Was thanked: 7874 time(s) in 3262 post(s)
Sara G;336944 wrote:
I can't think of a better example than the people who bought Teslas (actual cars, not shares), and are now offloading them because of a sudden ideological aversion to Musk.


I'm sure that if you were a Federal Government employee and you received an email asking you to justify your existance on the payroll or indeed that you had been terminated with immediate effect. That politics wouldn't be at the forefront of your mind. Easy to forget that the US is still a hire and fire economy. With none of the employment law protection that Europeans are able to use (in some cases hide behind) to defer their termination.

Treating people with contempt is the epitomy of American Exceptionalism. The likes of JP Morgan, Henry Ford , JD Rockefeller didn't become extremely rich by being "nice" people.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
1 user thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Aminatidi on 09/03/2025(UTC)
Elspeth Beaton
Posted: 08 March 2025 23:05:01(UTC)
#3493

Joined: 11/12/2019(UTC)
Posts: 227

Thanks: 2 times
Was thanked: 904 time(s) in 192 post(s)
Perhaps we are all beginning to to realise once again that the real world out there is not a nice place and never actually was -the walls we built especially in Europe to shield us from reality once more don’t seem to work
The barbarians are at the gate and we all need to man up quick -man/soldiers being the operative word
Poland( on the front line against Russia) ) thinking of reintroducing conscription ……..
xxd09
Back to top Quote
2 users thanked Elspeth Beaton for this post.
Thrugelmir on 08/03/2025(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 09/03/2025(UTC)
349 Pages«Previous page345346347348349Next page
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets