Johan De Silva;336973 wrote:I think we can get over our disagreements if we all be aligned on past macro events, as illustrated by this chart:
The core principle of the U.S. administration is to strike a balanced middle ground between corporate taxes and tariffs. In the long run, this approach could help reduce the deficit, lay the foundation for a future surplus, and ultimately strengthen the dollar.
That said, while achieving this balance could support economic stability and bolster U.S. markets, the actual impact remains uncertain. Factors such as global trade dynamics, corporate responses, and consumer behaviour all play a role. As a result, we don’t yet know if this strategy will unfold as intended, or more importantly how long it might take.
I felt the bull case for US markets and their outlook often get buried under a mix of political bias and, more importantly, the predominance of older posters in this forum who, understandably, take a short-term view.
Saying that, as a UK investor myself looking to trade and gain alpha, I am very underweight the U.S. choosing alpha opportunities in the UK and Europe, but looking for the right time to get back into U.S. stocks. Smaller U.S. companies should benefit from reduced legislation and tax. KKR was my only U.S. only buy recently.
I can give you a completely different narrative about the effect of tariffs. Trade is a dynamic system, past attempts at serious tariffs have all led to falling global trade which doesn't matter if you can consume stuff internally. While people might buy 20 TShirts for $20 from Shein they wont buy 20 T-Shirts for $200 from Fruit of the Loom. Global production will fall, global unemployment will rise
the world will not go back to Mechantilism. The US has much more power when it is "soft", "Hard" power doesn't work unless you back it with hard actions.
What I can see is alternative sources of supply for goods previously from the US. US companies will not be able to buy out their competition and non-US versions will be created. In the meantime the US has crapped in its own nest - they will not get back the respect they had as a reliable if bumbling friend. People except for Vance have long memories...............you are my friend and you fuck me over, I don't forget.
When people will say absolutely anything, things they obviously don't believe in order to stay in power - I have watched Rubio and Hegseth - both are talking madly in favour of ideas they have fought against for decades. they have no credibility whatsoever. like Corbyn going to TV tomorrow espousing EDL policies.
tango man and his speech about spending money on Transgender mice FFS Transgenic mice ie Mice who have had a gene adapted, swapped out/removed to support investigations into human diseases.
there are sooo many stupid people out there.
I also heard that US is trawling the world trying to get eggs. I say sell them to them with a 25% export surcharge