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Pershing Square Holdings (PSH)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 08 February 2025 16:50:39(UTC)

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,081

Or another thought - if the tech itself is a mono/duopoly - such as Waymo/Tesla - then they can just be the aggregator as well as I imagine the AI/data/models will work well under one developer - so Uber gets cut out, and Waymo/Tesla keep more margins, and you still have many car manufacturers using the tech.

So seems either Uber become huge or go to zero in the new AV world.
Johan De Silva
Posted: 08 February 2025 17:11:26(UTC)

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,412

Presume Uber could increase margins even more. I suspect they have been keeping prices supressed. For the full year 2024, Uber reported a profit margin of 22%, which is a substantial increase from 5.1% in FY 2023. So I suspect this is a factor as to why Newbie invested?
Rookie Investor
Posted: 08 February 2025 17:36:40(UTC)

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,081

Johan De Silva;333664 wrote:
Presume Uber could increase margins even more. I suspect they have been keeping prices supressed. For the full year 2024, Uber reported a profit margin of 22%, which is a substantial increase from 5.1% in FY 2023. So I suspect this is a factor as to why Newbie invested?


Where do you get 22% for 24? What sort of margin is it?
Rookie Investor
Posted: 08 February 2025 17:41:54(UTC)

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,081

Uber, lyft etc are in a low margin business. There is no pricing power in this business because it does not take much price increase for users to switch to a competitor or use alternative means of transport.

So Uber's value is in the growth in revenues, given its operating leverage, can be substantial but it does need to grow, and for how long can it?
Johan De Silva
Posted: 08 February 2025 18:29:33(UTC)

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,412

RR, once everyone has the App and they mostly do, you have pricing power! Its not like the web. Raising prices recently with inflation has been very easy to do where I work, as a market leader the competitors follow, but back to Uber.... remember it has little or no costs impacted by inflation itself (unlike where I work), you can raise prices higher than the pay for drivers, especially when fuel cost is lower (whoop whoop! or meep beep!).

I use a paid for service to look at the Financials in an easy way. If you don't have similar you can clearly see Net Debt (Total debt - cash) reducing by half thanks to the margin expansion unless they have had an equity raise and I am sure quickly looking they have not. This was all in very recent years.

Anyway the point of PSH is they do the research and you can see from their track record they are exceptional and we aint going to do better easily. I suspect 2025 the PSH team know that Uber could have zero Net Debt and possibly an increase again in margins. Thats a lovely market update given the pull back in share price at the end of last year.

I may not appear smart or educated, but I am not "low information" and learning all the time. I do recall using the PickMe app instead of Uber in Sri Lanka where I spend many months of the year, we simply cancel the booking and pay the driver and bypass the system :-)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 08 February 2025 19:17:19(UTC)

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,081

Johan De Silva;333671 wrote:
RR, once everyone has the App you have pricing power! Its not like the web. Raising prices recently with inflation has been very easy to do where I work, as a market leader the competitors follow, but back to Uber.... remember it has little or no costs impacted by inflation itself (unlike where I work), you can raise prices higher than the pay for drivers, especially when fuel cost is lower

I use a paid for service to look at the Financials in an easy way. If you don't have similar you can clearly see Net Debt (Total debt - cash) reducing by half thanks to the margin expansion unless they have had an equity raise and I am sure quickly looking they have not. This was all in very recent years.



That's the problem with looking at easy ways to look up numbers - the 22% margins you see is misleading because it seems to be calculated using the net income number and for 2024 it includes one-off large items such as tax rebate. You should look at the operating line which suggests an operating margin of 6%. It has doubled yoy owing to the operating leverage Uber has.

RE the pricing power lets see. Uber reports a gross booking figure, which is the total the passengers spend. The revenue line is what is passed onto Uber. Then they have their variable costs like insurance. The gross profit as a % of gross booking for 2024 is 16%. It was 10% the previous two years. How much can this really increase more? Uber drivers need to get paid and inflation is resulting in higher fuel costs and wages. Passengers are price sensitive to transport so they will always go for a cheaper option as there are like for like competitors and other transportation (private taxi companies etc).

They have no moat as such because people can switch to another app at 0 cost. As soon as a cheaper better app comes along, with one touch Uber is deleted.
Johan De Silva
Posted: 08 February 2025 20:17:30(UTC)

Joined: 22/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 4,412

Rookie Investor;333674 wrote:
Johan De Silva;333671 wrote:
RR, once everyone has the App you have pricing power! Its not like the web. Raising prices recently with inflation has been very easy to do where I work, as a market leader the competitors follow, but back to Uber.... remember it has little or no costs impacted by inflation itself (unlike where I work), you can raise prices higher than the pay for drivers, especially when fuel cost is lower

I use a paid for service to look at the Financials in an easy way. If you don't have similar you can clearly see Net Debt (Total debt - cash) reducing by half thanks to the margin expansion unless they have had an equity raise and I am sure quickly looking they have not. This was all in very recent years.



That's the problem with looking at easy ways to look up numbers - the 22% margins you see is misleading because it seems to be calculated using the net income number and for 2024 it includes one-off large items such as tax rebate. You should look at the operating line which suggests an operating margin of 6%. It has doubled yoy owing to the operating leverage Uber has.

RE the pricing power lets see. Uber reports a gross booking figure, which is the total the passengers spend. The revenue line is what is passed onto Uber. Then they have their variable costs like insurance. The gross profit as a % of gross booking for 2024 is 16%. It was 10% the previous two years. How much can this really increase more? Uber drivers need to get paid and inflation is resulting in higher fuel costs and wages. Passengers are price sensitive to transport so they will always go for a cheaper option as there are like for like competitors and other transportation (private taxi companies etc).

They have no moat as such because people can switch to another app at 0 cost. As soon as a cheaper better app comes along, with one touch Uber is deleted.


Thank you for the direction, $1.3 billion of that from non-operation. I see the operating margin line increase 96.75% to 6.36%. It is all heading in the right direction if they double it again... while it is all dwarfed by the large market capitalisation so it is not something I would buy, but I tend never to buy US stocks.

RE inflation, that seemed positive for Uber as oil prices are declining not rising and the consumer expects inflation, they are even seeing it in pay rises and prepared to pay more. You only have to look at the insurers raising prices blaming repair costs yet they are making record profits.

RE app, we'll have to disagree, switching Apps has friction especially if you are out an about. If you use an App its habitual.
Big boy
Posted: 08 February 2025 21:01:21(UTC)

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676

Thanks: 5660 times
Was thanked: 11110 time(s) in 4250 post(s)
Why are we spending so much time mulling over Uber etc.

I thought someone didn’t want the hassle of looking at stocks as happy to be long term investor. With PSH they could be sellers tomorrow. Let’s stop wasting our time double guessing an expert.

I have found that Mr & Mrs Cherrypicker come in after the Lord Mayors Show ie behind the curve. Many times I was out of a stock before the ink dried on their purchase contract note.

If it went right it was their idea and if wrong it was my idea..
1 user thanked Big boy for this post.
Johan De Silva on 09/02/2025(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 09 February 2025 12:13:05(UTC)

Joined: 09/12/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,081

Johan De Silva;333678 wrote:
Rookie Investor;333674 wrote:
Johan De Silva;333671 wrote:
RR, once everyone has the App you have pricing power! Its not like the web. Raising prices recently with inflation has been very easy to do where I work, as a market leader the competitors follow, but back to Uber.... remember it has little or no costs impacted by inflation itself (unlike where I work), you can raise prices higher than the pay for drivers, especially when fuel cost is lower

I use a paid for service to look at the Financials in an easy way. If you don't have similar you can clearly see Net Debt (Total debt - cash) reducing by half thanks to the margin expansion unless they have had an equity raise and I am sure quickly looking they have not. This was all in very recent years.



That's the problem with looking at easy ways to look up numbers - the 22% margins you see is misleading because it seems to be calculated using the net income number and for 2024 it includes one-off large items such as tax rebate. You should look at the operating line which suggests an operating margin of 6%. It has doubled yoy owing to the operating leverage Uber has.

RE the pricing power lets see. Uber reports a gross booking figure, which is the total the passengers spend. The revenue line is what is passed onto Uber. Then they have their variable costs like insurance. The gross profit as a % of gross booking for 2024 is 16%. It was 10% the previous two years. How much can this really increase more? Uber drivers need to get paid and inflation is resulting in higher fuel costs and wages. Passengers are price sensitive to transport so they will always go for a cheaper option as there are like for like competitors and other transportation (private taxi companies etc).

They have no moat as such because people can switch to another app at 0 cost. As soon as a cheaper better app comes along, with one touch Uber is deleted.


Thank you for the direction, $1.3 billion of that from non-operation. I see the operating margin line increase 96.75% to 6.36%. It is all heading in the right direction if they double it again... while it is all dwarfed by the large market capitalisation so it is not something I would buy, but I tend never to buy US stocks.

RE inflation, that seemed positive for Uber as oil prices are declining not rising and the consumer expects inflation, they are even seeing it in pay rises and prepared to pay more. You only have to look at the insurers raising prices blaming repair costs yet they are making record profits.

RE app, we'll have to disagree, switching Apps has friction especially if you are out an about. If you use an App its habitual.


How does insurance work for Uber; does the driver pay or is it Uber? Bit confused because Uber have some insurance payments and reserves held back to pay for this in future. It is part of their variable costs not operating.

Fuel might not be rising but there is real wage growth, and from anecdotal evidence of using Uber, driver's are not particularly happy with their cut. So I can't see gross margins improving much. Remember taxi services are incredibly competitive and so I doubt Uber has pricing power to raise their prices much, even with real wage growth.

Operating margins can owing to the operating leverage, they seem to have invested well and turned a profit recently. So key thing is the growth in revenues now. I do not have any idea about this, as Uber has been around for a while but what is going to drive growth longer term?

I am sceptical about Uber's position when it comes to AV roll out in future. I can see them being irrelevant, why would a Tesla or Waymo needlessly pass their margins over? In the meanwhile they are useful for the demand, but not sure about future.

in any case, I was thinking of punting £5k in Uber in the dip, but it appears Bill Ackman beat me to it and did it for me anyway and given my 30k in PSH I now indirectly own £6k in Uber!!
Raj K
Posted: 09 February 2025 12:19:39(UTC)

Joined: 22/04/2016(UTC)
Posts: 2,818

Thanks: 6460 times
Was thanked: 6651 time(s) in 2090 post(s)
Have been looking deeper into Uber since the Ackman news. Not a user of Uber taxis (dont think ive ever used one but have used Uber eats a number of times).

This breakdown from mid 2023 is pretty good as a primer.

https://www.youtube.com/...=WrLaviN-LVs&t=2386s
3 users thanked Raj K for this post.
Rookie Investor on 09/02/2025(UTC), Phil 2 on 09/02/2025(UTC), Auric on 11/02/2025(UTC)
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