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Property Downturn?
anglo29
Posted: 26 May 2021 06:48:49(UTC)
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I'm reading increasing hints of a possible property prices downturn come October, with both furlough and the current stamp duty "holiday" due to end around this time.

Meanwhile we seem to be in an accelerating house price "bubble", certainly in the London area; looking in an estate agents window yesterday, I saw examples of this, with £800,000 being asked for a very ordinary old Victorian terraced house, in a "nothing special" area. Are there people crazy enough to even contemplate paying such prices, with the inevitability of negative equity arising if a price crash becomes reality?

Recently a serious fire occurred in a docklands high tower block, found to have Grenfell type cladding. Yet the government does little to compel the builders of these blocks to meet the cost of putting things right. So we have hundreds if not thousands of leaseholders in similar blocks stuck in unsellable flats, with yet more "luxury" blocks being built for sale at silly prices, which some people are apparently prepared to pay.

Will today's dream home become tomorrow's financial nightmare?......I wonder.
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Mr Helpful on 26/05/2021(UTC), Fig Lee on 26/05/2021(UTC)
bédé
Posted: 26 May 2021 07:12:32(UTC)
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There is something special about "bricks and mortar". But apart from the emotional side, a good stocks investor could easily beat it as an investment. Without the illiquidity, the tie, the maintenance and the dealing costs.

Gearing though comes easier.
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Fig Lee on 26/05/2021(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 26 May 2021 07:22:44(UTC)
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Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
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It concerns me more than inflation does...
N Far
Posted: 26 May 2021 07:57:09(UTC)
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Even though my view is the ratio of house prices to income is a source of numerous long term problems in the country, I’d guess a low probability of a major correction for the following reasons:

- gov wants moderate inflation and needs low interest rates
- house price inflation is a component of GDP. With the COVID and, likely, brexit damage to GDP, the gov will not do anything that would adversely affect residential property. More likely the opposite.
- house price growth does not directly affect inflation
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Maggie Chase on 26/05/2021(UTC)
Tug Boat
Posted: 26 May 2021 07:57:45(UTC)
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Joined: 16/12/2014(UTC)
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It’s getting a bit silly. My friend just sold a house for 10% over the asking price.

Most sales are going to sealed bids, and there are very few houses left to buy - lots of flats though.

The South Hams is getting very expensive, but people from London and the midlands keep turning up with sacks full of money.
anglo29
Posted: 26 May 2021 10:44:29(UTC)
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Tug Boat;171479 wrote:
It’s getting a bit silly. My friend just sold a house for 10% over the asking price.

Most sales are going to sealed bids, and there are very few houses left to buy - lots of flats though.

The South Hams is getting very expensive, but people from London and the midlands keep turning up with sacks full of money.




Not familiar with property prices in your part of Devon, but a recent series on TV highlighted the plight of Cornish fishermen, who fear their sons, whom they hope would inherit their fishing boats, will not be able to afford to buy a home anywhere near the ports they work out of. The ultimate scenario would be the fishing industry in rapid decline, which in turn would affect us all.

It seems logical to me there should be some kind of control over house prices in an area where living in your place of work is vital, and that people from wealthier areas of the country should not be able to purchase property in such areas, as second homes which probably lay empty for much of the year.

I imagine the important fishing port of Brixham in Devon, has the same problem?....If so, why aren't local MP's hammering away for some kind of legislation for a price limitation on properties needed for local fishermen (and others in vital trades for the area)...and certainly for them to be given purchasing priority over wealthy visitors. After all, if people are wealthy enough to buy second homes in the area, then they are also wealthy enough to stay in a local hotel for their visit, thereby benefiting the local area with their custom.
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Chans on 28/05/2021(UTC), Mr Scruff on 31/05/2021(UTC)
Newbie
Posted: 26 May 2021 11:07:39(UTC)
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I recently enquired about a property to potentially downsize in the near future. It was advertised as a guide price of £1.2m (everything around here is either on 'guide price' or 'best offer accepted'). The agent told me that the first offer was for £1.25m and that after being on the market for half an hour that offer was matched by 3 others and could potentially reach £1.4m by end of month if not week, so my offer needs to be high and quick.

Apparently the tactic used by estate agents is to, first determine the budget of the buyer and then tell the buyer that is the price and some more. No longer is there a need to put up a for sale board sign. Within 15 mins of going on right move a barrage of offers flood in from people wanting to move out of London or foreign buyers.

The estate agent also ties in the buyer - writing into the contract that they will have first refusal on being the agent of any future sales of said property.

What property slow-down ???
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NoMoreKickingCans on 26/05/2021(UTC)
Bvlp
Posted: 26 May 2021 11:26:35(UTC)
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Maybe there will be a house price crash however what I have observed looking for a new house from October 2020 to May this year:

1. The buyers we have been up against have been cash buyers or people with significant 40% plus deposits

2. Desirable family homes are often getting 15 - 20 + offers, almost all going for above asking price

3. The area has basically built no new houses over the last 2 decades and there is no plans for any significant development, there was a supply issue before COVID, now it is at proportions never seen in this area

4. The people buying these 750 to 1.5M homes are not on furlough and the stamp duty freeze is of minimal significance

This suggests to me that prices could go a lot higher yet and predicting a crash could be a fools errand.

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ANDREW FOSTER on 26/05/2021(UTC), Tim D on 26/05/2021(UTC), Johan De Silva on 26/05/2021(UTC), xiang zou on 10/08/2021(UTC)
MBA MBA
Posted: 26 May 2021 12:27:57(UTC)
#11

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725

anglo29;171470 wrote:
.

Will today's dream home become tomorrow's financial nightmare?......I wonder.


how many years have people been saying this?

we can now say that residential land is like a government bond, there is an implicit underwriting of the market by the government

just as growth stocks have been pushed up by ZIRP, along with mass money printing, so too has residential land



MBA MBA
Posted: 26 May 2021 12:30:28(UTC)
#9

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725

Newbie;171507 wrote:
I recently enquired about a property to potentially downsize in the near future. It was advertised as a guide price of £1.2m (everything around here is either on 'guide price' or 'best offer accepted'). The agent told me that the first offer was for £1.25m and that after being on the market for half an hour that offer was matched by 3 others and could potentially reach £1.4m by end of month if not week, so my offer needs to be high and quick.

Apparently the tactic used by estate agents is to, first determine the budget of the buyer and then tell the buyer that is the price and some more. No longer is there a need to put up a for sale board sign. Within 15 mins of going on right move a barrage of offers flood in from people wanting to move out of London or foreign buyers.

The estate agent also ties in the buyer - writing into the contract that they will have first refusal on being the agent of any future sales of said property.

What property slow-down ???


market in my part of outer london is healthy but not the above. i dont evern remember the above between 2000-2006 when the market was on steroids. tbh the above sounds dubious, not least this...

The estate agent also ties in the buyer - writing into the contract that they will have first refusal on being the agent of any future sales of said property.

pretty sure the above would be illegal and certainly against the unfair contracts terms et al, The property ombudsman would strike against this.
2 users thanked MBA MBA for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 26/05/2021(UTC), Newbie on 26/05/2021(UTC)
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