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The 2025 multi-asset outlook
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Aminatidi
Posted: 24 January 2025 13:03:46(UTC)
#1

Joined: 29/01/2018(UTC)
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Latest from Vanguard.

https://www.vanguard.co....025-multi-asset-outlook

"In short, long-term investors are less likely to be rewarded for taking more equity risk."
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2 users thanked Aminatidi for this post.
Thrugelmir on 24/01/2025(UTC), Peanuts on 25/01/2025(UTC)
Rookie Investor
Posted: 24 January 2025 13:32:58(UTC)
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What an awful article. Complete waste of time reading it. Something any monkey can produce.
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2 users thanked Rookie Investor for this post.
Special Kloud on 24/01/2025(UTC), Newbie on 24/01/2025(UTC)
Rory Barr
Posted: 24 January 2025 13:53:35(UTC)
#3

Joined: 18/11/2018(UTC)
Posts: 737
I'd agree it tells many of us little we didn't already know, but I'm sure it has its broader uses to the wider set of potential investors, and will be of use in that context. It's a short, light read and just what some people need to encourage them to push the button and start investing and thus saving for their futures.

And I've worked with plenty of monkeys who would have struggled to write it.
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Rookie Investor
Posted: 24 January 2025 14:24:53(UTC)
#4

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Rory Barr;332128 wrote:
I'd agree it tells many of us little we didn't already know, but I'm sure it has its broader uses to the wider set of potential investors, and will be of use in that context. It's a short, light read and just what some people need to encourage them to push the button and start investing and thus saving for their futures.

And I've worked with plenty of monkeys who would have struggled to write it.


It really has no use for investors. It uses useless valuation metrics, forecasts returns based on nothing but finger in the air, from an organisation that really should know better.

It thinks investing is like going on a see saw as a child, or being nice and taking your turn, in the way it thinks it is now international's turn for returns and not US. Investing just does not work that way.

Literally a shit article that any monkey could have produced and dangerous one too as its aim seems to be to get investors scared out of US market, same old shit that has happened for ten years.

By all means invest according to an asset allocation based on need and risk tolerance. But this article at best adds no value, and at worse scares people out of good investing.
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Thrugelmir
Posted: 24 January 2025 14:56:25(UTC)
#5

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,317
Been a consistant message for a while now. Few people seem to bother reading the commentary though.
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SF100
Posted: 24 January 2025 16:52:42(UTC)
#6

Joined: 08/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,254
the author has barely started shaving
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Peanuts
Posted: 25 January 2025 08:16:06(UTC)
#7

Joined: 16/02/2019(UTC)
Posts: 1,476
Aminatidi;332118 wrote:


"In short, long-term investors are less likely to be rewarded for taking more equity risk."


For most, including me, it's the long-term that matters. The short-term path changes so often and is all focused around Trump and policy. Now Don has called for lower interest rates and backed down on (worst-case-scenario) tariffs, I think the US market will rip higher. With some volatility thrown in. So if I was a trader or brave enough I would be 100% equities till at least yr end.
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allocator3844
Posted: 25 January 2025 09:17:55(UTC)
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Joined: 27/10/2020(UTC)
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I think about my asset allocation and also "should I reduce my exposure to USA", far too much and am constantly attracted to articles / listen to podcast on these subjects in particular. Having a roughly 50/50 split (through mainly multi asset funds) age 62 and retired, I often come to the conclusion that this is about right for my circumstances and say to myself "now forget about it and do something else that is more productive", but I never do. Perhaps I need to ween myself off the subject ?
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6 users thanked allocator3844 for this post.
Cm258 on 25/01/2025(UTC), Guest on 25/01/2025(UTC), Rob B on 25/01/2025(UTC), Busy doing nothing on 25/01/2025(UTC), AlanT on 26/01/2025(UTC), dlp6666 on 27/01/2025(UTC)
Rob B
Posted: 25 January 2025 10:06:29(UTC)
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Joined: 07/10/2018(UTC)
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allocator3844;332190 wrote:
I think about my asset allocation and also "should I reduce my exposure to USA", far too much and am constantly attracted to articles / listen to podcast on these subjects in particular. Having a roughly 50/50 split (through mainly multi asset funds) age 62 and retired, I often come to the conclusion that this is about right for my circumstances and say to myself "now forget about it and do something else that is more productive", but I never do. Perhaps I need to ween myself off the subject ?

Despite a lot of the bullshit and bravado you can read on this forum, you're not alone allocator3844. Think I read somewhere it's a human trait to fear loss more than gain. Add into the mix the uncontrollable elements of world politics and the stock market then it's only natural to keep an eye open. Everyone will have an opinion - just like every active manager will strongly believe they have a winning strategy.

Great question on how to wean yourself off. Might be worthy of a separate thread. As long as you've ring-fenced / set aside a few years' cash as a buffer you should be fine.
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1 user thanked Rob B for this post.
AlanT on 26/01/2025(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 25 January 2025 10:53:45(UTC)
#10

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,676
Rob B;332195 wrote:
allocator3844;332190 wrote:
I think about my asset allocation and also "should I reduce my exposure to USA", far too much and am constantly attracted to articles / listen to podcast on these subjects in particular. Having a roughly 50/50 split (through mainly multi asset funds) age 62 and retired, I often come to the conclusion that this is about right for my circumstances and say to myself "now forget about it and do something else that is more productive", but I never do. Perhaps I need to ween myself off the subject ?

Despite a lot of the bullshit and bravado you can read on this forum, you're not alone allocator3844. Think I read somewhere it's a human trait to fear loss more than gain. Add into the mix the uncontrollable elements of world politics and the stock market then it's only natural to keep an eye open. Everyone will have an opinion - just like every active manager will strongly believe they have a winning strategy.

Great question on how to wean yourself off. Might be worthy of a separate thread. As long as you've ring-fenced / set aside a few years' cash as a buffer you should be fine.


I have found trading “fear” and “greed” far easier and beneficial than speculating and gambling on 10s of thousand of facts.

That speculation is beneficial in creating the fear and greed so don’t knock the vast majority of investors who generate much of our wealth by being herd followers and LILO investors…
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