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Mr GL
Posted: 23 January 2023 14:02:09(UTC)
#785

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
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I am now up to 16.6% RIT

Mr GL;254831 wrote:
Private equity share price performance vs Vanguard All-world as proxy for public markets since start of 2021 - ie over three years starting before COVID, before Ukraine, before inflation and interest rates blow up etc...

VWRL +20.4%

III +34%
APEO +25%
APAX -5%
CTPE +22%
HGT +46%
HVPE +23%
ICGT +17%
NBPE +31%
OCI +66%
PIN +0%

and these two PE heavy global trusts..

CLDN +11% (62% of NAV = PE)
RCP -4.5% (41% of NAV = PE)


latest discounts and SP vs peaks

name ….... % Discount .. SP now vs Peak

EQGB …....... …. …....... -32%
EQQQ …....... …. …....... -24%
IPRV. …....... …. …........ -22%
OCI… …....... 32% …........ -1%
HVPE …....... 44% …....... -25%
HGT.. …....... 17% …........ -15%
III…. …....... 1% …....... -2%
NBPE …....... 32% …........ -18%
CTPE BPET 36% …....... -5%
PIN.. …....... 45% …....... -26%
APEO SLPE 42% …....... -26%
ICGT …....... 38% …....... -12%
APAX …....... 29% …....... -24%


CLDN …....... 29% …....... -15%
RIT… …....... 17% …....... -27%
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1 user thanked Mr GL for this post.
Phil 2 on 23/01/2023(UTC)
mdss68
Posted: 23 January 2023 15:57:07(UTC)
#782

Joined: 20/09/2018(UTC)
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Big boy;254156 wrote:
lindsay Morrison2;254149 wrote:
Phil 2;254137 wrote:
I can understand how a typical (I know, no such thing!) RCP investor might be spooked by “discovering” all these risky assets which has created more sellers than buyers. Big Boy is constantly netting these off, I’m sure (!).

But even if this rally is one for fools, if markets were so efficient, surely the fact such assets have had a very decent last few months should have the opposite effect on the NAV and therefore the SP? Amongst others, I hold HVPE (-2.5% last 3 months), APEO (+3%) and CTPE (+12%) …

Are there no (presumably more logical) institutional investors not taking advantage of such a generous (seeming) discount ???

I doubled my holding earlier, maybe they’ll follow my very convincing lead !!


@Phil2 - in response to your Q Joe Bauernfreund at AGT decided in November to buy a basket of PE funds (names not disclosed that I have seen) adding to some of his key positions like OCI of which he is a long term holder. I like his style and he has done well in my view and I have been adding to AGT and in some cases selling down my individual PE holdings and adding to AGT at 8% discount so the looks through discounts are quite large!!!


Some one has mentioned the ridiculous holding (I don't find it ridiculous) of 0.4% held by CGT but they understand how illiquid many stocks are as they have been trading the discounts for decades ...for some its complex. I am not sure AGT would be able to get a reasonable bid for their large holding (7% of portfolio) of OCI whereas we can trade instantly in our amounts. For this reason we have an advantage over say CGT/AGT but I do understand its not so easy for some to invest direct in the sector...Hopefully this helps....



If you bothered to read what I said, rather than come up with a version that allows you to pursue your usual agenda of being the only one who ever gets anything.......I said "apparently ridiculous", meaning most people would look at such a small position and wonder if that could possibly make any material difference to the overall performance of the Trust. What I'm saying is that it is precisely because CGT understand both liquidity and risk management that a position of 0.4% makes perfect sense. They will never risk an amount they couldn't sell off in a relative heartbeat.

But risk management & position size discipline have sweet FA to do with the discounts.......
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2 users thanked mdss68 for this post.
Jimmy Page on 23/01/2023(UTC), Aminatidi on 23/01/2023(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 23 January 2023 16:34:07(UTC)
#783

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
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mdss68;254860 wrote:
Big boy;254156 wrote:
lindsay Morrison2;254149 wrote:
Phil 2;254137 wrote:
I can understand how a typical (I know, no such thing!) RCP investor might be spooked by “discovering” all these risky assets which has created more sellers than buyers. Big Boy is constantly netting these off, I’m sure (!).

But even if this rally is one for fools, if markets were so efficient, surely the fact such assets have had a very decent last few months should have the opposite effect on the NAV and therefore the SP? Amongst others, I hold HVPE (-2.5% last 3 months), APEO (+3%) and CTPE (+12%) …

Are there no (presumably more logical) institutional investors not taking advantage of such a generous (seeming) discount ???

I doubled my holding earlier, maybe they’ll follow my very convincing lead !!


@Phil2 - in response to your Q Joe Bauernfreund at AGT decided in November to buy a basket of PE funds (names not disclosed that I have seen) adding to some of his key positions like OCI of which he is a long term holder. I like his style and he has done well in my view and I have been adding to AGT and in some cases selling down my individual PE holdings and adding to AGT at 8% discount so the looks through discounts are quite large!!!


Some one has mentioned the ridiculous holding (I don't find it ridiculous) of 0.4% held by CGT but they understand how illiquid many stocks are as they have been trading the discounts for decades ...for some its complex. I am not sure AGT would be able to get a reasonable bid for their large holding (7% of portfolio) of OCI whereas we can trade instantly in our amounts. For this reason we have an advantage over say CGT/AGT but I do understand its not so easy for some to invest direct in the sector...Hopefully this helps....



If you bothered to read what I said, rather than come up with a version that allows you to pursue your usual agenda of being the only one who ever gets anything.......I said "apparently ridiculous", meaning most people would look at such a small position and wonder if that could possibly make any material difference to the overall performance of the Trust. What I'm saying is that it is precisely because CGT understand both liquidity and risk management that a position of 0.4% makes perfect sense. They will never risk an amount they couldn't sell off in a relative heartbeat.

But risk management & position size discipline have sweet FA to do with the discounts.......







My apologies for misquoting…I am not sure they would “never risk”. in a “relative heartbeat “ is quite correct. Understanding the market place and how PS has operated over the decades I suspect that’s not correct but please no silly comments… I am only trying to report what happens in this particular market place.
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3 users thanked Big boy for this post.
Aminatidi on 23/01/2023(UTC), Guest on 23/01/2023(UTC), Guest on 23/01/2023(UTC)
Mr GL
Posted: 25 January 2023 11:35:50(UTC)
#786

Joined: 18/10/2020(UTC)
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added 1.5% AUM to RCP at 1991p.. this is an 18.9% discount to NAV at the end of Nov...

left 19.2% RIT Capital RCP

Since the end of Nov...
VWRL is unchanged
FCSS has gone from 221 to 298 ... ie up 35% (JMG is up 11%) and Rit said that in the month to end Nov 'key drivers' of performance 'Chinese domestic funds, recovering from October lows to significantly outperform'

OCI's results today showed a 24% NAV return last year "65% of the increase was driven by EBITDA growth, and 35% as a result of multiple expansion driven primarily by exits"

YTD for growth capital
CHRY +18%
GRWO +6%

YTD for Private Equity
CTPE +13%
III +10%
OCI +8%
HGT +5%
APEO +2%
HVPE / PIN -0%

SO IF the argument that RIT was more risky because of it 41% in private equity then it appears that this has been heading higher...

RCP is -6% YTD...
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8 users thanked Mr GL for this post.
Sheerman on 25/01/2023(UTC), Big boy on 25/01/2023(UTC), SF100 on 25/01/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 25/01/2023(UTC), Strangways on 25/01/2023(UTC), LondonYank84 on 25/01/2023(UTC), Low Returns on 25/01/2023(UTC), Auric on 25/01/2023(UTC)
Mostly Rational
Posted: 30 January 2023 14:55:16(UTC)
#787

Joined: 09/11/2021(UTC)
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Well this afternoon seems to be the better buying opportunity I spoke of. The December NAV should be out very soon, although it may take the January NAV to calm markets (assuming that neither shows anything shocking).
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2 users thanked Mostly Rational for this post.
Phil 2 on 30/01/2023(UTC), Mr GL on 30/01/2023(UTC)
S Dobbo
Posted: 30 January 2023 15:17:07(UTC)
#788

Joined: 24/01/2013(UTC)
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I don't hold RCP at the moment, but I'm surprised there haven't been any share buy backs or directors purchases since it took the hit. Not really the show of confidence I would've expected!
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1 user thanked S Dobbo for this post.
Mr Bean on 30/01/2023(UTC)
Mostly Rational
Posted: 30 January 2023 15:29:54(UTC)
#789

Joined: 09/11/2021(UTC)
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S Dobbo;255683 wrote:
I don't hold RCP at the moment, but I'm surprised there haven't been any share buy backs or directors purchases since it took the hit. Not really the show of confidence I would've expected!


They may be in a closed period until the publication of their annual results.
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2 users thanked Mostly Rational for this post.
Phil 2 on 30/01/2023(UTC), Tim D on 30/01/2023(UTC)
mdss68
Posted: 30 January 2023 16:42:30(UTC)
#790

Joined: 20/09/2018(UTC)
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Mostly Rational;255687 wrote:
S Dobbo;255683 wrote:
I don't hold RCP at the moment, but I'm surprised there haven't been any share buy backs or directors purchases since it took the hit. Not really the show of confidence I would've expected!


They may be in a closed period until the publication of their annual results.


I think it may be more prosaic, the family already have "enough", between Hannah, Lord Rothschild & the charity holding, they control 21% or so.

Family controlled Trusts tend to be less keen on DCM, if they issue shares they dilute their own holding, and with that, their control. On the buy back side, they don't much care if they're on a discount and why shrink the Trust to make us barbarians at their gates feel better? No skin of their nose, they don't need the marketing appeal in the same way say CGT do. It's a family office, one we happen to be able to tag along, but it's run for them, then for us (and we pay them for this largesse!)

Bought back at 1986p earlier, it's been a decent entry recently, but it needs to re find it's mojo soon.
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4 users thanked mdss68 for this post.
Big boy on 30/01/2023(UTC), Newbie on 30/01/2023(UTC), Mr GL on 30/01/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 30/01/2023(UTC)
Thrugelmir
Posted: 30 January 2023 17:03:49(UTC)
#794

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
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mdss68;255696 wrote:


Bought back at 1986p earlier, it's been a decent entry recently, but it needs to re find it's mojo soon.


New Year is always relatively quiet pending full year results. Soon start rolling in. Then the fog should to start to clear a little. With companies also releasing financial guidance for 2023.
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4 users thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Mr GL on 30/01/2023(UTC), Newbie on 30/01/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 31/01/2023(UTC), Low Returns on 31/01/2023(UTC)
S Dobbo
Posted: 30 January 2023 18:14:19(UTC)
#791

Joined: 24/01/2013(UTC)
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mdss68;255696 wrote:


I think it may be more prosaic, the family already have "enough", between Hannah, Lord Rothschild & the charity holding, they control 21% or so.

Family controlled Trusts tend to be less keen on DCM, if they issue shares they dilute their own holding, and with that, their control. On the buy back side, they don't much care if they're on a discount and why shrink the Trust to make us barbarians at their gates feel better? No skin of their nose, they don't need the marketing appeal in the same way say CGT do. It's a family office, one we happen to be able to tag along, but it's run for them, then for us (and we pay them for this largesse!)

Bought back at 1986p earlier, it's been a decent entry recently, but it needs to re find it's mojo soon.



All well and good, but I'm not talking about it in a DCM type trade, I mean in a profitable trade. They were doing plenty of buying last year at a much higher price than todays. I'm aware of the family IT philosophy!
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3 users thanked S Dobbo for this post.
SF100 on 30/01/2023(UTC), Phil 2 on 30/01/2023(UTC), dlp6666 on 31/01/2023(UTC)
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