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smg8
Posted: 18 February 2021 09:55:21(UTC)

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Aminatidi;153428 wrote:
smg8;153413 wrote:
I totally get that people want to protect their wealth as they get older but from looking at these examples from the period chosen by you to paint a worst case scenario I do find it a little hard to see what benefit having CGT offers IF the individual has a long enough time horizon.

Of course this is all based on a lump sum, drip feeding/still accumulating makes it an even clearer choice (in my opinion).


Take the 2000 example on the previous page though?

Assume you had no more money to put in.

That was a long time and some people just don't/can't/won't want to wait that long so perhaps settle for (hopefully) more consistent but lower returns?

Personally if you've the appetite for it put the lot in whatever works for you but I do think people seem keener to point out the quick recoveries than the slow painful ones (Japan!).

Honestly my view is buy whatever works for you but I always enjoy how divisive the subject seems to be :)



I agree 100% Amin, that everyone has their own approach and it has to work for them, let them sleep at night, and so on.

And my own will likely change when I get to the point of not putting any more money in, for sure!

For now though a 50% drop would be the chance to add units at half price when making monthly top ups. Not that I want it to happen at all, but buying at a reduced price is a quicker way to accumulating wealth.

I'd see having a big chunk in something which will only drop slightly less than 100% equity in the short run but rise by a fair bit less than 100% equity in the long run as a drag on performance when I have 20+ years to go until I can access my SIPP.

But I absolutely understand why the thinking shifts over time from accumulation to preservation as those timescales change.
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ALAN P on 18/02/2021(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 18 February 2021 10:22:50(UTC)

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smg8;153438 wrote:
........something which will only drop slightly less than 100% equity in the short run .........

by slightly less, you mean approximately double? (ref your MS global brand chart prev page)
unless of course you know when such drops will be occurring....
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Trudy Scrumptious on 18/02/2021(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 18 February 2021 10:35:08(UTC)

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Ok we can say double if you like.....it certainly makes it sound more dramatic.

In the same way a 2% drop is double a 1% drop.

To me it just doesn't matter if my numbers on a screen temporarily show being down 10%, but to some it does.

With a 10 year time horizon with that specific chart in mind, in return for halving my short term drop, over 10 years I'd be up 60% odd rather than 160% odd.

As others have said it's not a fair comparison anyway.

Whilst not like for like, perhaps this one is fairer;

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Jesse M on 18/02/2021(UTC), Simon Martin on 18/02/2021(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 18 February 2021 10:46:27(UTC)

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smg8;153447 wrote:
Ok we can say double if you like.....

sorry, it's not if I like - it's a fact, acc to your chart on the previous page
overall drop/volatility, whatever, of your chosen 100% equity fund MS Global, was approximately double that of CGT.
To quote bede, "words are important"
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smg8 on 18/02/2021(UTC)
smg8
Posted: 18 February 2021 10:55:26(UTC)

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SF100;153455 wrote:
smg8;153447 wrote:
Ok we can say double if you like.....

sorry, it's not if I like - it's a fact, acc to your chart on the previous page
overall drop/volatility, whatever, of your chosen 100% equity fund MS Global, was approximately double that of CGT.
To quote bede, "words are important"



Crikey, I wish I'd never commented on this thread haha! It was only to say Monks isn't a good comparison :-(

But yes, you are factually correct that it was double.

In the chart shown, the temporary drop below money originally invested, which doesnt matter unless the person planned to access that money during that timescale, was double in the 100% equity option (which went on to return circa 160% over 10 years) compared to CGT (which went on to return circa 60% over the same 10 years).
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Rob B on 18/02/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 18/02/2021(UTC)
Aminatidi
Posted: 18 February 2021 11:08:15(UTC)

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This always leaps to mind when people say "Oh but CGT dropped 15% and equities always recover eventually".

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Jesse M on 18/02/2021(UTC), Robin on 18/02/2021(UTC), Guest on 18/02/2021(UTC), SF100 on 18/02/2021(UTC), Sheerman on 18/02/2021(UTC), Trudy Scrumptious on 18/02/2021(UTC), MikeT on 18/02/2021(UTC), smg8 on 18/02/2021(UTC), ALAN P on 18/02/2021(UTC), Andy Thomson on 18/02/2021(UTC)
Rob B
Posted: 18 February 2021 11:10:13(UTC)

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smg8;153458 wrote:
Crikey, I wish I'd never commented on this thread haha! It was only to say Monks isn't a good comparison :-(

But yes, you are factually correct that it was double.

In the chart shown, the temporary drop below money originally invested, which doesnt matter unless the person planned to access that money during that timescale, was double in the 100% equity option (which went on to return circa 160% over 10 years) compared to CGT (which went on to return circa 60% over the same 10 years).

Good to see you offering some thoughts here smg8. Always value your insight - even if it's 'not your bag' as you say!

I feel I should put a footnote on my contributions that says something like "please read this post in its entirety and don't pick out individual words - I'm only human, fallible and prone to wording errors".
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smg8 on 18/02/2021(UTC), Jesse M on 18/02/2021(UTC)
Tyrion Lannister
Posted: 18 February 2021 11:13:44(UTC)

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Aminatidi;153428 wrote:
smg8;153413 wrote:
I totally get that people want to protect their wealth as they get older but from looking at these examples from the period chosen by you to paint a worst case scenario I do find it a little hard to see what benefit having CGT offers IF the individual has a long enough time horizon.

Of course this is all based on a lump sum, drip feeding/still accumulating makes it an even clearer choice (in my opinion).


Take the 2000 example on the previous page though?

Assume you had no more money to put in.

That was a long time and some people just don't/can't/won't want to wait that long so perhaps settle for (hopefully) more consistent but lower returns?

Personally if you've the appetite for it put the lot in whatever works for you but I do think people seem keener to point out the quick recoveries than the slow painful ones (Japan!).

Honestly my view is buy whatever works for you but I always enjoy how divisive the subject seems to be :)



Nearly all the points made on this thread are valid, especially the points about each to their own.

I’m not trying to compare one strategy with another, I simply want to understand why CGT is a good defensive fund. In the current climate it’s difficult to differentiate. Last March everything went down.

So, in the current climate, is CGT defensive or not? Fundsmith looks better for that role, in my PF at least.
4 users thanked Tyrion Lannister for this post.
Jesse M on 18/02/2021(UTC), SF100 on 18/02/2021(UTC), Aminatidi on 18/02/2021(UTC), smg8 on 18/02/2021(UTC)
SF100
Posted: 18 February 2021 11:41:17(UTC)

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Tyrion Lannister;153466 wrote:

So, in the current climate, is CGT defensive or not? Fundsmith looks better for that role, in my PF at least.

CGT appears to be significantly more diversified between various asset classes than Fundsmith which is 100% equities.

That is not to say CGT will not have some volatility; it holds a significant % of risk-on assets (and can drift up to 80%, hence one should stay alert to that) and also a significant % of inflation linked bonds/TIPS, which are volatile themselves, as evidenced by their drop last March (but, as I understand it, if held until maturity would result in a gain). CGT anticipate rising inflation with the inflation rate well above base interest rate, and believe that they can trade their inflation linked bonds/TIPS for profit.

CGT recently announced that investors should anticipate greater volatility in their search to eek out gains (that is gains in excess of their 'benchmark', the UK RPI, presumably), which they anticipate will be much more difficult to achieve over the medium/long term.
5 users thanked SF100 for this post.
Tim D on 18/02/2021(UTC), Tyrion Lannister on 18/02/2021(UTC), Trudy Scrumptious on 18/02/2021(UTC), paul armstrong on 18/02/2021(UTC), Monty Claret on 18/02/2021(UTC)
Robin
Posted: 18 February 2021 12:00:40(UTC)

Joined: 06/07/2009(UTC)
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SF100 on 18/02/2021(UTC)
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