Funds Insider - Opening the door to funds

Welcome to the Citywire Funds Insider Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error
Harry Trout's Portfolio
+ Reply to discussion
Options
Harry Trout
Posted: 21 April 2021 08:57:26(UTC)
#43

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3537 time(s) in 821 post(s)
bédé;166003 wrote:
EDIT 20/04/21 - Renamed this thread "Harry Trout's Portfolio" from "A Concentrated Portfolio"

Hey, how did you do that?

I once made a serious grammatical error and though I was stuck with it forever. The shame! A simple typo, no problem.

I edited my first post and it gave me the option to edit the thread title. So I edited the title and pressed "post"

Hope this helps
Back to top Quote
2 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
bédé on 21/04/2021(UTC), laang lee on 08/06/2021(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 21 April 2021 14:53:15(UTC)
#42

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3537 time(s) in 821 post(s)
bédé;166003 wrote:
But apart from that, your thread is a bit like watching paint dry. Come on! Make it a bit more exciting.

This is going to be a thread about how my portfolio develops over time and so it will be in part a personal journal though I hope it prompts discussions too.

If others wanted to start their own portfolio development threads then I personally would find this very helpful. As someone who dips in and out of the forum I find it hard to keep track of developments and who is now where.

In this thread I'm planning to record evolution in the following ideas:

A move towards individual stocks away from trusts
Swing trading around long term positions
A tilt towards American stocks
Setting price targets

These ideas are underway and are different from the norm here so I hope it is of interest to some.

If the speed of the thread is too glacial for your liking or the content dull then do feel free to ignore it, I won't be offended.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
10 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
Mr Helpful on 21/04/2021(UTC), mdss68 on 21/04/2021(UTC), Johan De Silva on 21/04/2021(UTC), Newbie on 21/04/2021(UTC), Bardolph on 21/04/2021(UTC), dlp6666 on 09/06/2021(UTC), MikeT on 12/06/2021(UTC), kim shillinglaw on 29/06/2021(UTC), laang lee on 29/06/2021(UTC), Lemanie on 21/07/2021(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 21 April 2021 15:43:16(UTC)
#40

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
Posts: 3,985

Thanks: 6173 times
Was thanked: 6988 time(s) in 2761 post(s)
Harry Trout;165998 wrote:
In this thread I'm planning to record evolution in the following ideas:

A move towards individual stocks away from trusts
Swing trading around long term positions
A tilt towards American stocks


Harry Trout;165998 wrote:
I have been gradually selling down my Lindsell Train UK Equity OEIC position this year and it will soon fall out of my top 10.
My reasons for this, in order of importance are:

1. I prefer to hold ITs now and FGT Finsbury Growth & Income Trust is available as a replacement. I would rather own FGT now if I want exposure to Nick Train, I do own some FGT (1%) but haven't added since July 2020.
2. I own Diageo, Fevertree, Unilever, London Stock Exchange and Hargreaves Lansdown directly and I'm comfortable doing this so there is no point paying a fee for Nick Train to manage them, he doesn't rotate investments.
3. I feel that a number of the holdings are at a reasonably full price, London Stock Exchange a possible exception that I am happy to hold direct.
4. The fund always underperforms my benchmark VWRL
5. I can also see me selling down Diageo, Fevertree, Unilever and Hargreaves Lansdown in time too, they are all on my selling watchlist due to long term underperformance to VWRL.
6. Anyway today I sold the largest chunk of Lindsell Train UK Equity so far.

Good to see the thinking behind a careful investor.
Following are musings - most definitely not criticisms

1. Counter-strategy ?

2. Like most of Nick Train's holdings these are fine businesses, but this investor reluctant to pay the current price.
That non-rotation is certainly an issue.

3. LSEG ......
P/E = 64.71 (or 36)
P/S = 17.5
P/B = 7.28
ROE = 11.75 (or 20.0)
ROCE = 35% (seems suspect)
Growth = 11%ish region
Debt = negligible
would like to own but even at the reduced price hesitate
one to reflect on

4. Mmmm

5. Where would the proceeds go ?

6. Ditto.

Keep posting as thoughts develop please.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
3 users thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Harry Trout on 21/04/2021(UTC), mdss68 on 28/04/2021(UTC), Lemanie on 21/07/2021(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 21 April 2021 16:35:37(UTC)
#44

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3537 time(s) in 821 post(s)
Thanks for the interesting questions Mr Helpful which got me thinking. My comments below use your numbering ......

1. I would like to end up with a concentrated portfolio of stocks all with good earnings growth but at different stages of their lifecycle. I'm very realistic about my ability to beat good managers and monitor this closely. So I will keep investment trusts too - Baillie Gifford will be there of course.

2. I agree with you and worry that Nick Train is becoming too dogmatic in adherence to Buffett principles and I fear returns may remain sub par against VWRL. I like Buffett a lot and hold BRK.B but is this now mainly for nostalgia?? I really don't like Train's football club holdings.

3. I am disciplining myself to set price targets to investments and like to be able to model a trebling in price in 10 years as a minimum. I bought LSEG at £74 and was targeting £98 within 12 months as a first step, so we shall see ............

4. I use VWRL as a Benchmark for every investment even if UK based. So for example I target my investment in Hargreaves Lansdown long term against VWRL. VWRL is becoming a "cost of capital" for me as I buy more and more of it for Mrs Trout's portfolio; I hope this makes sense.

5 and 6. Favourite investments for me currently are Fundsmith, Apple, Microsoft, SMT and Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust. My portfolio is for "growth" and Mrs Trout's has a more passive and defensive style (increasing amounts of Vanguard). In this way I am looking to create a kind of barbell with my approach. This idea came from my enjoyment of the work I do for the Citywire thread "Active versus Passive - Some Tests".

Thanks for the encouragement

Harry
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
6 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
Raj K on 21/04/2021(UTC), Mr Helpful on 22/04/2021(UTC), dlp6666 on 09/06/2021(UTC), kim shillinglaw on 29/06/2021(UTC), laang lee on 29/06/2021(UTC), Lemanie on 21/07/2021(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 28 April 2021 15:51:08(UTC)
#45

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3537 time(s) in 821 post(s)
Added a chunk of Microsoft $MSFT today @ $254

Earnings released yesterday were good but price has dropped 3% today presenting an opportunity I believe.

This is a larger purchase for me by my normal standards. I have set it up as a swing trade in my ISA with a price target of a (hopefully) quick $269, a target profit of $15 per share or 6%.

I've set $246 as a stop loss being the previous all time high and the 50 day EMA. So a conservative 2 for 1 trade as it's my first go at it.

My long term holding of $MSFT is in my SIPP. I do this for the tax benefit of receiving US dividends into SIPPs.

This is a new concept for me; trades in the ISA and long term buy and hold in the SIPP. I like the idea of learning to trade around a long term position.

I have been long Microsoft since 2018 and the holding is now 7th place in my overall portfolio at 3.7%.

Here is the chart for this trade ......

Microsoft Trade 280421
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
1 user thanked Harry Trout for this post.
mdss68 on 28/04/2021(UTC)
mdss68
Posted: 28 April 2021 16:09:31(UTC)
#46

Joined: 20/09/2018(UTC)
Posts: 1,975

Thanks: 3381 times
Was thanked: 4151 time(s) in 1536 post(s)
Harry Trout;167201 wrote:
Added a chunk of Microsoft $MSFT today @ $254

Earnings released yesterday were good but price has dropped 3% today presenting an opportunity I believe.

This is a larger purchase for me by my normal standards. I have set it up as a swing trade in my ISA with a price target of a (hopefully) quick $269, a target profit of $15 per share or 6%.

I've set $246 as a stop loss being the previous all time high and the 50 day EMA. So a conservative 2 for 1 trade as it's my first go at it.

My long term holding of $MSFT is in my SIPP. I do this for the tax benefit of receiving US dividends into SIPPs.

This is a new concept for me; trades in the ISA and long term buy and hold in the SIPP.

I like the idea of trying to trade around a long term position. I have been long $MSFT since 2018.


Does seem a harsh reaction to what seemed decent numbers. Seems we're into that time when just beating isn't enough for the street....

And more general point, another vote for what you're doing here, it's always fascinating to see the thought behind the process as it were. The idea of a having a target in mind from the outset is one I particularly applaud, it doesn't need to be set in stone, but at least reviewing when a certain price has been reached is prudent imvho.

atb
Back to top Quote
1 user thanked mdss68 for this post.
Harry Trout on 28/04/2021(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 04 May 2021 18:16:04(UTC)
#47

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3537 time(s) in 821 post(s)
On the dips today I have topped up Apple $AAPL at $127 and Amazon $AMZN at $3,278 - both in my SIPP.

I am increasingly liking the idea of treating my SIPP as my long term buy and hold account and my ISA for swing trading around those long term positions. This idea is helping me to get my head straight as to what my expectations are from a share purchase alongside target setting.

These were only modest top ups from available cash, modest in case the dip is something more serious.

Amazon and Apple are both 3.2% of my overall portfolio and are ranked 10th and 11th place respectively.
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
2 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
mdss68 on 05/05/2021(UTC), kim shillinglaw on 29/06/2021(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 08 June 2021 15:11:42(UTC)
#48

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3537 time(s) in 821 post(s)
$AAPL Bought 100 Apple shares today at $126.88 in my ISA.

I am planning to change my ISA over time into my "trading account" and hold investments for the long term in my SIPP or "positions account".

Apple popped above a descending trend line today, a line which started after earnings release on 28 April. Earnings growth looks strong to me.

Target $154, stop loss $116. My working model is to target 20% upside and limit downside to 8%, so a risk reward ratio of 2.5 on trades.

Here is the chart:

080621 Apple Trade
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
6 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
what me worry? on 08/06/2021(UTC), AndyJ7 on 08/06/2021(UTC), Newbie on 08/06/2021(UTC), Sheerman on 09/06/2021(UTC), smg8 on 10/06/2021(UTC), mdss68 on 29/06/2021(UTC)
Harry Trout
Posted: 29 June 2021 08:21:25(UTC)
#49

Joined: 08/06/2014(UTC)
Posts: 1,012

Thanks: 3965 times
Was thanked: 3537 time(s) in 821 post(s)
Added to Games Workshop #GAW yesterday in my SIPP which I am increasingly viewing as the account where I hold investments for the long term. Paid £113.80 per share, funded from cash.

Earnings growth in GAW continues to look great so I thought I would taken advantage of the modest, shallow pullback from recent all time highs.

GAW is still held by CFP SDL Buffettology, 3 x Baillie Gifford trusts and Marlborough Micro Cap.

The current target for new investments into my SIPP is that there is visibility of doubling in 5 years and I think GAW could do this from here.

I already have GAW in my ISA, the account I want to use for swing trading around long term positions held in my SIPP. So I will sell some shares in the ISA at a good moment, current base cost is £106 per share.

There was a nice Red Dog Reversal candle in the weekly view; here is the daily chart with a white arrow showing the purchase yesterday:

280621 GAW
Back to top Quote
 |  Edit by user
2 users thanked Harry Trout for this post.
mdss68 on 29/06/2021(UTC), Mr Helpful on 29/06/2021(UTC)
Mr Helpful
Posted: 29 June 2021 15:34:39(UTC)
#51

Joined: 04/11/2016(UTC)
Posts: 3,985

Thanks: 6173 times
Was thanked: 6988 time(s) in 2761 post(s)
How does GAW generate such phenomenal growth ?
Back to top Quote
1 user thanked Mr Helpful for this post.
Harry Trout on 29/06/2021(UTC)
23 Pages«Previous page34567Next page»
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets