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Bulldog Drummond
Posted: 03 February 2022 17:28:47(UTC)
#32

Joined: 03/10/2017(UTC)
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There's a quick Vanguard 11 question questionnaire at the link below that purports to give a rough indication of risk appetite and where you might be comfortable allocating your money. My result is 60% equities whereas a year ago it was 80% and 2 years ago 100%. That has actually quite accurately reflected my allocations, other than that my non-equity holdings are in stuff that I see as lower risk rather than traditional "risk free" bonds. Regardless, for anyone with a few decades to go and no great interest in trading, putting it all in VWRL seems to me to be a reasonable approach.

https://retirementplans.vanguard...bQuizActivity?Step=start
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7 users thanked Bulldog Drummond for this post.
MartynC on 03/02/2022(UTC), Elland Road on 03/02/2022(UTC), MBA MBA on 03/02/2022(UTC), J Thomas on 03/02/2022(UTC), Historyman on 04/02/2022(UTC), Lesley J on 19/02/2022(UTC), Guest on 22/02/2022(UTC)
Elland Road
Posted: 03 February 2022 17:41:24(UTC)
#33

Joined: 15/11/2020(UTC)
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I am not sure if it’s any help to others but I was told to look at a SIPP/ISA portfolio not as one lump but as (say) 5 tranches as you are unlikely to need all the money in one go - more likely over 20-30 years so the risk tolerance you can afford to take on each (say 20%) tranche could well be very different, particularly between say tranche one (needed in next 5 ish years) to tranche 5 needed in 20-25 years time.

I have therefore bracketed the pf in my case into 5 notional tranches according to risk and time invested / likely need. Helps me anyway !
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15 users thanked Elland Road for this post.
Bulldog Drummond on 03/02/2022(UTC), smg8 on 03/02/2022(UTC), Chris1986 on 03/02/2022(UTC), DHardisty on 03/02/2022(UTC), J-san on 03/02/2022(UTC), Guest on 03/02/2022(UTC), MartynC on 03/02/2022(UTC), NoMoreKickingCans on 03/02/2022(UTC), Jimmy Page on 03/02/2022(UTC), Busy doing nothing on 03/02/2022(UTC), Jesse M on 04/02/2022(UTC), kim shillinglaw on 14/02/2022(UTC), Peter59 on 20/02/2022(UTC), Guest on 22/02/2022(UTC), Guest on 24/02/2022(UTC)
NoMoreKickingCans
Posted: 03 February 2022 21:05:56(UTC)
#34

Joined: 26/02/2012(UTC)
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Quote:
not as one lump but as (say) 5 tranches

I think that is an interesting idea, not just for deciding on an investment allocation, but also potentially for rationalising in our own head changes in portfolio value.
It has some parallels with the idea of bond ladders I guess.

For a retiree, taking maybe 4%pa for 25 years...

0-5 years 100% cash/savings bonds
5-10 years 100% defensive/wealth preservation
10-15 years 60% stocks/40% defensive
15-20 years 80% stocks
20-25 years 100% stocks

Gives 48% stocks, 32% WP, 20% cash ?
In a 40% stocks crash, portfolio might fall 20% ish with 10-25 years to fully recover ?
Some regular rebalancing required I suppose.
Not sure how it would compare with 60-40 with rebalancing.
I always wonder with things like rebalancing whether it should be ‘opportunity’ based - i think most people would think the best time to buy stocks is after a crash - but maybe that is a fallacy ?
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3 users thanked NoMoreKickingCans for this post.
Tim D on 03/02/2022(UTC), Guest on 04/02/2022(UTC), Elland Road on 04/02/2022(UTC)
Jimmy Page
Posted: 03 February 2022 21:14:12(UTC)
#35

Joined: 11/11/2017(UTC)
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NoMoreKickingCans;207333 wrote:
Quote:
not as one lump but as (say) 5 tranches

I think that is an interesting idea, not just for deciding on an investment allocation, but also potentially for rationalising in our own head changes in portfolio value.
It has some parallels with the idea of bond ladders I guess.

For a retiree, taking maybe 4%pa for 25 years...

0-5 years 100% cash/savings bonds
5-10 years 100% defensive/wealth preservation
10-15 years 60% stocks/40% defensive
15-20 years 80% stocks
20-25 years 100% stocks

Gives 48% stocks, 32% WP, 20% cash ?
In a 40% stocks crash, portfolio might fall 20% ish with 10-25 years to fully recover ?
Some regular rebalancing required I suppose.
Not sure how it would compare with 60-40 with rebalancing.
I always wonder with things like rebalancing whether it should be ‘opportunity’ based - i think most people would think the best time to buy stocks is after a crash - but maybe that is a fallacy ?

Something like this? ;)
"Well, if you have enough, then you could indeed simply consider ring fencing it in a bucket of asset protectors.
At the same time though, all fresh money over the next 10-15 years could then be invested into another bucket with a higher risk threshold. That could then be derisked for retirement part 2.

Retirement income 'assured', but with FOMO scratched with bucket2.
It may also help the discipline of leaving Bucket1 alone and not being tempted to disturb it with tomorrow's Peloton. If you need help with the discipline, that is. (I did).

By separating into buckets, perhaps half the final retirement pot will have a new 15 year period in which to try for growth."
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3 users thanked Jimmy Page for this post.
MBA MBA on 03/02/2022(UTC), Elland Road on 04/02/2022(UTC), Guest on 22/02/2022(UTC)
Ian Eccles
Posted: 19 February 2022 13:09:45(UTC)
#36

Joined: 04/07/2021(UTC)
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The world is split between Investors and savers, obviously I don't know you but I would put you on the saver side of the equation .
My point being you can make money in any kind of market.
I have been investing for over 50 years and I am not claiming to know it all because we all keep learning.
I invest for fun it's like a drug, great when you win crap when you get it wrong .
Some dude told a bloke called Caesar to beware the ides of March.
I suggest if you are uncertain of the market you should think about selling some of your portfolio because the ides of March is on the 15th and the following day the Fed announce the result of their meeting.
If they up the rate by 50bp you will see some action that you might not like.
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3 users thanked Ian Eccles for this post.
Bulldog Drummond on 19/02/2022(UTC), W.B on 19/02/2022(UTC), Alfa 2 on 19/02/2022(UTC)
Dexi
Posted: 19 February 2022 13:53:21(UTC)
#41

Joined: 03/04/2018(UTC)
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Yes , beware the Ides of March - you don`t want to end up like poor old Ceasar , uttering those famous last words .... " Infamy , infamy , they`ve all got it in for me ."
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3 users thanked Dexi for this post.
W.B on 19/02/2022(UTC), Guest on 19/02/2022(UTC), MarkSp on 20/02/2022(UTC)
Big boy
Posted: 19 February 2022 14:18:03(UTC)
#42

Joined: 20/01/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,692
“I’ve never lived through a bear market” is EWI/SMT (2 of the best Trusts) down 50% and 35% a bear market ….
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MBA MBA
Posted: 19 February 2022 14:26:35(UTC)
#37

Joined: 16/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,725

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Ian Eccles;209858 wrote:
The world is split between Investors and savers, obviously I don't know you but I would put you on the saver side of the equation .
My point being you can make money in any kind of market.
I have been investing for over 50 years and I am not claiming to know it all because we all keep learning.
I invest for fun it's like a drug, great when you win crap when you get it wrong .
Some dude told a bloke called Caesar to beware the ides of March.
I suggest if you are uncertain of the market you should think about selling some of your portfolio because the ides of March is on the 15th and the following day the Fed announce the result of their meeting.
If they up the rate by 50bp you will see some action that you might not like.


Wait, the Fed is considering raising rates! I’m gonna sell before other investors find out.
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1 user thanked MBA MBA for this post.
Trudy Scrumptious on 19/02/2022(UTC)
pauly
Posted: 19 February 2022 19:03:43(UTC)
#6

Joined: 18/01/2019(UTC)
Posts: 18

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Ermintrade;207107 wrote:
In this vein of safety first, some people might be interested in the simple portfolio of ITs put together by Merryn Somerset Webb of MoneyWeek:
1 year return %
Caledonia Investments 34
Law Debenture Corp 23
Mid-Wynd Internat 10
Personal Assets 9
RIT Capital Partners 26
Scottish Mortgage -14

She reviews it every year, but rarely makes any changes. No changes made in her last review.

Regards
ermintrade




No Changes made ? Then what is the point of paying fees for getting nothing in return if these fund managers and advisors simply do nothing but rake in millions of pounds in fees. You didn't have to be a genius to work out that just this one fund, Scottish Mortgage was going to be hit hard and fast. This idea that you should stay invested what ever the market does or how hard it falls is such a ridiculous notion. Theirs absolutely nothing wrong with going to cash, taking profits and moving on to a better way of investing. And to be blunt most of these so called experts can't even match index funds for performance.
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2 users thanked pauly for this post.
xiang zou on 19/02/2022(UTC), ANDREW FOSTER on 20/02/2022(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 19 February 2022 19:35:22(UTC)
#40

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,204

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MBA MBA;209869 wrote:
Ian Eccles;209858 wrote:
The world is split between Investors and savers, obviously I don't know you but I would put you on the saver side of the equation .
My point being you can make money in any kind of market.
I have been investing for over 50 years and I am not claiming to know it all because we all keep learning.
I invest for fun it's like a drug, great when you win crap when you get it wrong .
Some dude told a bloke called Caesar to beware the ides of March.
I suggest if you are uncertain of the market you should think about selling some of your portfolio because the ides of March is on the 15th and the following day the Fed announce the result of their meeting.
If they up the rate by 50bp you will see some action that you might not like.


Wait, the Fed is considering raising rates! I’m gonna sell before other investors find out.


Ya think?

The market action is already discounting about +1,5% by year end. A 0.5% hike could be seen as aggressive action that will bring about falling rates quicker ==> a positive.
I listen to BBerg a lot and there is more on there about whether peak inflation is March/Apr and when rates will be falling again

:)
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1 user thanked MarkSp for this post.
MBA MBA on 20/02/2022(UTC)
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