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Why do you think that Germany has blocked tanks to Ukraine?
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Tim D
Posted: 2 years ago
#100

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
Posts: 8,883
ANDREW FOSTER;255189 wrote:
There are people waiting in the wings to take the opportunity.


Nice piece in the WSJ today on Prigozhin's rise:
https://www.nytimes.com/...tin-ukraine-wagner.html
https://archive.is/DNBDD
(entirely possible that'd be an outcome that had the West wishing that nice Mr Putin was back in charge, of course).

ANDREW FOSTER;255189 wrote:
The lack of the predicted second mobilisation in January is telling. It appears it got postponed or cancelled at the last minute. Putin was slated to make an 'important announcement' but it got cancelled.


Some stuff in the latest ISW
https://www.understandin...essment-january-25-2023
("Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)" section about halfway down) about more controls on border crossings coming in March, and the Russian leadership realizing that the next one will need to be a "silent mobilization" else many of those likely to be mobilized will flee at the first hint.
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ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 2 years ago
#101

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,125

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Tim D;255240 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;255189 wrote:
There are people waiting in the wings to take the opportunity.


Nice piece in the WSJ today on Prigozhin's rise:
https://www.nytimes.com/...tin-ukraine-wagner.html
https://archive.is/DNBDD
(entirely possible that'd be an outcome that had the West wishing that nice Mr Putin was back in charge, of course).



Prigozhin is no fool. Should he come to power his first task will be working out how to stay in power. That will be a challenge. Staying alive will be a challenge.

Likely he will declare the war a huge mistake and blame Putin, while flagging himself as one who 'did his duty'. He will likely reverse the decrees of annexation of the Donbass and make overtures to the West in an attempt to get sanctions reduced. He may reverse the recognition of LPR/DPR and hang them out to dry.

It's unlikely to work and the US declaration of Wagner as an International Criminal Organisation is likely an attempt to undermine him, as he'd face arrest if he left the country (to go to the UN for example). He would be land locked.

I cannot see sanctions being lifted unless and until people have been brought to the Hague. That would likely include him.

A weak Prigozhin who is smart enough to stay within his borders is likely just what the West wants.

One of the fascinating clips yesterday was a Wagner officer 'interrogating' a mobik who had shot some Ukrainian civilians while drunk. It looks like a deliberate attempt to try to 'sanitise' the Wagner Command 'we didn't order this'.
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Spartacus on 26/01/2023(UTC), Tim D on 26/01/2023(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 2 years ago
#103

Joined: 17/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 2,194
President Zelensky in the house!

Battlefield fatigues de rigeur for crossing Downing St., apparently.

What does he want now? Just jets?
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Spartacus
Posted: 2 years ago
#104

Joined: 13/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 358

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Was thanked: 360 time(s) in 189 post(s)
You have to change your life;256812 wrote:


Battlefield fatigues de rigeur for crossing Downing St., apparently.



Why not? British PM's, partucularly Boris Johnson are always indulging in cosplay when there's a press camera around
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Tim D on 15/02/2023(UTC)
You have to change your life
Posted: 2 years ago
#105

Joined: 17/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 2,194
Great tag-team.
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You have to change your life
Posted: 2 years ago
#106

Joined: 17/11/2021(UTC)
Posts: 2,194
It is not the business of this country to impose upon Russia the leader that America would prefer.
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2 users thanked You have to change your life for this post.
stephen_s on 09/02/2023(UTC), Newbie on 15/02/2023(UTC)
Lex Further
Posted: 2 years ago
#107

Joined: 18/09/2021(UTC)
Posts: 181
Everything looks good now, hopefully they will have all the tanks they need very soon.
We, as an average people, can also do something good today. CarDonate helps Ukrainian soldiers and doctors with the transform old cars into functioning vehicles which save lives.
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Tim D
Posted: 2 years ago
#108

Joined: 07/06/2017(UTC)
Posts: 8,883
Today's MoD update touches on Russia's efforts to get itself into "wartime economy" mode.
MoD

Via https://twitter.com/Defe...atus/1625746370291290112
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ANDREW FOSTER on 15/02/2023(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 2 years ago
#109

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,125

Thanks: 11371 times
Was thanked: 18236 time(s) in 5982 post(s)
Modern tanks are not like T-34's you cant just weld them together out of old saucepans.

At the moment it looks like Russia is losing 3-10 tanks per day. It would be a colossal effort simply to reach that number and chronic shortages of night vision, optics, tac radio and even basic armour plate make such a task Herculean. Much of the armour plate they used was from the Azovstal plant and that will not be functional again for years. Aside from many of the skilled workers either fled or died.

And, of course, many things they use (like night vision) are made in the West (France). There was a giant scandal a few years back when Russia invested billions to provide home grown night vision and the money simply vanished into Putin's cousin's pockets. They never produced one sight.

However, the West is going to have to do similar IF it has the resolve to see this through. Just old obsolete kit lying around is going to run out sooner of later.

What is notable is the huge losses Russia is suffering in places like Vulhadar where there is confirmed video of the loss of over 30 AFV's in a single day as the Russians just drove straight into a minefield. Disable tanks were then finished off with drone drops over the next 48 hours.

It took decades to build the Soviet tank fleet and you can't replace that in a couple of years.

But in the end, Russian troops don't appear to be willing to die on the this hill.
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3 users thanked ANDREW FOSTER for this post.
Tim D on 15/02/2023(UTC), Dexi on 16/02/2023(UTC), Spartacus on 16/02/2023(UTC)
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