Funds Insider - Opening the door to funds

Welcome to the Citywire Funds Insider Forums, where members share investment ideas and discuss everything to do with their money.

You'll need to log in or set up an account to start new discussions or reply to existing ones. See you inside!

Notification

Icon
Error

Nat West and other UK banks
Phil 2
Posted: 10 March 2023 07:02:56(UTC)
#21

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,108

Thanks: 9819 times
Was thanked: 4742 time(s) in 1534 post(s)
This outfit probably has more in common with Molten Ventures and Tek Capital than with a uk bank, but it will be interesting to observe the reaction and any fallout in and outside of the States. I didn’t think it merited its own thread.

EDIT: UK banking shares down by 4% early doors! Ludicrous really.


Shares in Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a key lender to technology start-ups, plummeted on Thursday as investors moved to withdraw their deposits.

The slide came after the bank announced a $1.75bn (£1.5bn) share sale to help shore up its finances.
Shares in banks have fallen around the world - with the four largest US banks, including JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, losing more than $50bn in market value.

One venture capitalist told the BBC the day's events were "wild" and "brutal".

On Friday, shares in Asian banks were also trading lower.

Shares in SVB saw their biggest one-day drop on record as they plunged by more than 60% and lost another 20% in after-hours trade.

The firm launched the share sale after losing around $1.8bn when it offloaded a portfolio of assets, mainly US Treasuries.

But more concerningly for the bank, some start-ups who have money deposited have been advised to withdraw funds.

Hannah Chelkowski, founder of Blank Ventures, a fund that invests in financial technology, told the BBC the situation was "wild". She is advising companies in her portfolio to withdraw funds.
"It's crazy how it's just unravelled like this... The interesting thing is that it's the most start-up friendly bank and supported start-ups so much through Covid. Now VCs are telling their portfolio companies to pull their funds," she said.

"It's brutal," she added.

A crucial lender for early-stage businesses, SVB is the banking partner for nearly half of US venture-backed technology and healthcare companies that listed on stock markets last year.
SVB did not immediately respond to a BBC request for further comment.
In the wider market, there were concerns about the value of bonds held by banks as rising interest rates made those bonds less valuable.

Central banks around the world - including the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England - have sharply increased interest rates as they try to curb inflation.

Banks tend to hold large portfolios of bonds and as a result are sitting on significant potential losses. The falls in the value of bonds held by banks is not necessarily a problem unless they are forced to sell them.

But, if like Silicon Valley Bank, lenders have to sell the bonds they hold at a loss it could have an impact on their profits.

"The banks are casualties of the hike in interest rates," Ray Wang, founder and chief executive of Silicon Valley-based consultancy Constellation Research told the BBC.

"Nobody at Silicon Valley Bank and in a lot of places thought that these interest rate hikes would have lasted this long. And I think that's really what happened. They bet wrong," he added.
1 user thanked Phil 2 for this post.
Jesse M on 10/03/2023(UTC)
ANDREW FOSTER
Posted: 13 April 2023 18:06:28(UTC)
#22

Joined: 23/07/2019(UTC)
Posts: 8,101



Hmmmm.... another bank in crisis or speculation....?

https://citywire.com/wea...-natwest-short/a2414031

John Bleke
Posted: 13 April 2023 19:04:31(UTC)
#27

Joined: 06/03/2023(UTC)
Posts: 246

I'm with Terry Smith on banks. Their equity can be wiped out quickly if the market moves against you. Plus they are too complicated beasts to understand.
Thrugelmir
Posted: 13 April 2023 21:45:54(UTC)
#23

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,317

ANDREW FOSTER;264073 wrote:


Hmmmm.... another bank in crisis or speculation....?

https://citywire.com/wea...-natwest-short/a2414031



Speculation. The deep rooted issues like in the under regulated US banking sector.
John Bran
Posted: 17 April 2023 21:02:31(UTC)
#28

Joined: 01/09/2017(UTC)
Posts: 2,125

John Bleke;264078 wrote:
I'm with Terry Smith on banks. Their equity can be wiped out quickly if the market moves against you. Plus they are too complicated beasts to understand.

Warren buffet has always held banks in his portfolio. Bank of America is his second largest holdings at the moment.
Banks are not for me but if I was to buy I would only buy what Warren bought.
He can take the blame if it goes wrong.

Just thought banks are the mainstay of Vietnamese invest trusts. A part of my portfolio.
MarkSp
Posted: 17 April 2023 21:53:15(UTC)
#24

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,176

Thrugelmir;264089 wrote:
ANDREW FOSTER;264073 wrote:


Hmmmm.... another bank in crisis or speculation....?

https://citywire.com/wea...-natwest-short/a2414031



Speculation. The deep rooted issues like in the under regulated US banking sector.



Marshall Wace have made at least £15M from that position assuming they can get out of it without getting screwed
Thrugelmir
Posted: 17 April 2023 22:29:24(UTC)
#25

Joined: 01/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 5,317

MarkSp;264585 wrote:



Marshall Wace have made at least £15M from that position assuming they can get out of it without getting screwed


Unsure how. Share price is up over 5% over the past month. Add in that they need to buy stock to cover their short.

Here's their declared short position with dates.

Marshall Wace LLP NATWEST GROUP Plc GB00BM8PJY71
0.70 12/04/2023
0.61 23/03/2023
0.57 22/03/2023
0.48 20/03/2023
0.51 10/03/2023
No one else is shorting the stock according to the register.

Also the Treasury have recently announced an extension of 2 years from Aug 23 to Aug 25 to sell down the Government's remaining holding. Takes the pressure off so to speak. While NWG continue to buy back shares.
1 user thanked Thrugelmir for this post.
Phil 2 on 18/04/2023(UTC)
MarkSp
Posted: 18 April 2023 06:11:52(UTC)
#26

Joined: 02/02/2020(UTC)
Posts: 2,176

Thrugelmir;264588 wrote:
MarkSp;264585 wrote:



Marshall Wace have made at least £15M from that position assuming they can get out of it without getting screwed


Unsure how. Share price is up over 5% over the past month. Add in that they need to buy stock to cover their short.

Here's their declared short position with dates.

Marshall Wace LLP NATWEST GROUP Plc GB00BM8PJY71
0.70 12/04/2023
0.61 23/03/2023
0.57 22/03/2023
0.48 20/03/2023
0.51 10/03/2023
No one else is shorting the stock according to the register.

Also the Treasury have recently announced an extension of 2 years from Aug 23 to Aug 25 to sell down the Government's remaining holding. Takes the pressure off so to speak. While NWG continue to buy back shares.



Short trackers don't report holdings sub 0.5% unless it includes a threshhold crossing MW look to have been around 0.5 since the SP was close to 300

Could be lots of others at <0.5% or none at all.

Would I be shorting NWG. Nope but it may be a trading pair eg Long MNG short NWG or a hedge against longs - who knows

I have no idea why the change was seen as news worthy
1 user thanked MarkSp for this post.
Phil 2 on 18/04/2023(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 27 April 2023 06:30:50(UTC)
#29

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,108

Thanks: 9819 times
Was thanked: 4742 time(s) in 1534 post(s)
UK banks still good value in my humble … NatWest results due Friday I think? Money making machines.

LONDON — Barclays on Thursday reported net profit of £1.78 billion for the first quarter, beating expectations and coming in 27% higher year-on-year.

A consensus Reuters poll of analysts forecast net profit at £1.432 billion.

Income from the bank’s consumer, cards and payments division rose 47%, compensating for just 1% growth in its corporate and investment bank division.

Barclays said it “remains on track to deliver its 2023 targets, with all performance metrics in line with or ahead of guidance” at the first quarter.

Chief Executive Officer C. S. Venkatakrishnan described it as a “strong” quarter, with income up 11% to £7.2 billion.

“The momentum across the group allows us to maintain a robust capital position, deliver attractive returns to shareholders, and support our customers and clients through an uncertain economic environment,” he said in a statement.
3 users thanked Phil 2 for this post.
ANDREW FOSTER on 27/04/2023(UTC), Harry Trout on 27/04/2023(UTC), Guest on 27/04/2023(UTC)
Phil 2
Posted: 28 April 2023 06:31:39(UTC)
#30

Joined: 20/07/2018(UTC)
Posts: 2,108

Thanks: 9819 times
Was thanked: 4742 time(s) in 1534 post(s)
Strong results announced today. Should be a green/blue day … unless a butterfly beats its wings far away of course.


Strong Q1 2023 performance

- Q1 2023 attributable profit of £1,279 million and a return on tangible equity of 19.8%.

- Total income, excluding notable items, increased by £1,036 million, or 37.2%, compared with Q1 2022 principally reflecting the impact of volume growth and yield curve movements.

- Bank net interest margin (NIM) of 3.27% was 7 basis points higher than Q4 2022.

- Other operating expenses were £214 million, or 12.5%, higher than Q1 2022 driven by increased staff costs due to a one-off cost of living payment of around £60 million, increased costs in areas of strategic investment and costs in relation to our withdrawal from the Republic of Ireland. The cost:income ratio (excl. litigation and conduct) was 49.8% at Q1 2023.

- A net impairment charge of £70 million, or 7 basis points of gross customer loans, principally reflected the continued strong performance of our lending book. Levels of default remain stable and at low levels across the portfolio.

Robust balance sheet with strong capital and liquidity levels

- Net loans to customers excluding central items increased by £5.7 billion to £352.4 billion, or 1.6%, primarily reflecting £3.9 billion of mortgage growth in Retail Banking and a £1.6 billion increase in Commercial & Institutional.

- Customer deposits excluding central items reduced by £11.1 billion, or 2.6%, in the quarter reflecting around £8 billion higher customer tax payments, competition for deposits and an overall market liquidity contraction.

- The loan:deposit ratio (LDR) (excl. repos and reverse repos) was 83% at Q1 2023, with customer deposits exceeding net loans to customers by around £55 billion.

- The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) of 139%, representing £43.4 billion headroom above 100% minimum requirement, decreased by 6 percentage points compared with Q4 2022 primarily due to reduced customer deposits and lending growth.

- Common Equity Tier (CET1) ratio of 14.4% was 20 basis points higher than Q4 2022 principally reflecting the attributable profit partially offset by a £2.0 billion increase in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) and a £0.5 billion ordinary dividend accrual.

- As at 26 April 2023 we had completed £458 million of the £800 million share buyback programme announced as part of our year end 2022 results.

- RWAs increased by £2.0 billion in the quarter to £178.1 billion largely reflecting lending growth and a £1.1 billion increase associated with the annual update to operational risk balances.

Outlook (1)

- We retain the outlook guidance provided in the 2022 Annual Report and Accounts.
1 user thanked Phil 2 for this post.
Fife Clive on 30/04/2023(UTC)
16 PagesPrevious page12345Next page»
+ Reply to discussion

Markets

Other markets